UFC on ESPN+ 28 predictions: Is it Kevin Lee or Charles Oliveira in Brasilia?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC on ESPN+ 28 main card in Brasilia, Brazil.

Lee
vs.
Oliveira
Burns
vs.
Maia
Hadzovic
vs.
Moicano
Krylov
vs.
Walker
Makdessi
vs.
Trinaldo
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2020: 36-18
lee2020
Lee
(56%)
maia2020
Maia
(59%)
moicano2020
Moicano
(89%)
walker2020
Walker
(75%)
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
(71%)
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2020: 41-13
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Simon Head
@simonhead
2020: 40-14
trophy copy 2019 Champion*
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Dave Doyle
@davedoylemma
2020: 40-14
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
makdessi2020
Makdessi
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2020: 40-14
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
krylov2020
Krylov
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2020: 40-14
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2020: 40-14
coliveira2020
Oliveira
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
krylov2020
Krylov
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2020: 40-14
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2020: 40-14
trophy copy 2017 Champion
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2020: 39-15
lee2020
Lee
maia2020
Maia
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2020: 38-16
lee2020
Lee
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
makdessi2020
Makdessi
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2020: 38-16
trophy copy 2014 Champion
coliveira2020
Oliveira
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
krylov2020
Krylov
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2020: 38-16
trophy copy 2018 Champion
coliveira2020
Oliveira
burns2020
Burns
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2020: 33-21
lee2020
Lee
maia2020
Maia
moicano2020
Moicano
walker2020
Walker
trinaldo2020
Trinaldo
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2020: 25-29
coliveira2020
Oliveira
maia2020
Maia
hadzovic2020
Hadzovich
krylov2020
Krylov
makdessi2020
Makdessi

The UFC is back in Brazil this week with a pair of lightweight contenders at the top of the card.

UFC on ESPN+ 28 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams on ESPN+. The event is closed to fans due to concerns over the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic, but the fights still will take place and will be broadcast with essential personnel on site.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, [autotag]Kevin Lee[/autotag] (18-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC) takes on [autotag]Charles Oliveira[/autotag] (28-8 MMA, 16-8 UFC) in a fight between lightweight contenders. Lee is a slight favorite in the fight, and he’s got a sizable 10-4 lead in the picks from our 14 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts.

In the co-main event, [autotag]Demian Maia[/autotag] (28-9 MMA, 22-9 UFC) meets fellow Brazilian [autotag]Gilbert Burns[/autotag] (17-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC) at welterweight. Burns is the favorite from the oddsmakers, and only three of our 14 pickers are taking Maia to pull off the upset.

Also on the main card, [autotag]Renato Moicano[/autotag] (13-3-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC) is the event’s biggest betting favorite at -350 in his lightweight bout against [autotag]Damir Hadzovic[/autotag] (13-5 MMA, 3-3 UFC), and accordingly only one picker is taking Hadzovic in an upset.

Brazil’s [autotag]Johnny Walker[/autotag] (17-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has a big 10-4 picks lead over [autotag]Nikita Krylov[/autotag] (26-7 MMA, 7-5 UFC) in their light heavyweight bout.

And to open the main card, [autotag]Francisco Trinaldo[/autotag] (24-7 MMA, 14-6 UFC) is a mild favorite against [autotag]John Makdessi[/autotag] (17-6 MMA, 10-6 UFC) in their lightweight bout, but he’s got a big 11-3 lead in the picks.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Lee (56 percent), Maia (59 percent), Moicano (89 percent), Walker (75 percent) and Trinaldo (71 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

UFC on ESPN+ 28 pre-event facts: Demian Maia can tie all-time wins record

The best stats and figures about UFC on ESPN+ 28, which features a Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira lightweight main event.

The UFC travels to Brazil for the 37th time in company history on Saturday with UFC on ESPN+ 28. It’s the third stop in Brasilia, as the event takes place at Ginasio Nilson Nelson with a 12-fight lineup set to stream on ESPN+.

A pair of surging lightweight contenders match up in the main event. [autotag]Kevin Lee[/autotag] (18-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC) will attempt to stay unbeaten since returning to 155 pounds when he meets red-hot [autotag]Charles Oliveira[/autotag] (28-8 MMA, 16-8 UFC), who has won six consecutive fights – all by stoppage.

For more on the numbers behind the main event, as well as a deep supporting cast, check below for 60 pre-event facts about UFC on ESPN+ 28.

* * * *

Main event

[jwplayer GKaxdHoN-FLu19iir]

Lee was successful in his return to the lightweight division when he knocked out Gregor Gillespie at UFC 244 in November.

Lee’s 11 victories since 2014 in UFC lightweight competition are tied with Tony Ferguson for second most in the division behind Beneil Dariush (12).

Lee has completed at least one takedown in 14 of his 16 UFC fights.

Lee’s 35 takedowns landed since 2014 in UFC lightweight competition are most in the division.

Lee’s 258 significant ground strikes landed in UFC lightweight competition are second most in divisional history behind Khabib Nurmagomedov (308).

Lee’s 96 significant ground strikes landed at UFC Fight Night 128 are the second most in a single UFC fight behind Neil Magny’s 100 landed at UFC Fight Night 85.

Charles Oliveira

Oliveira is 7-1 since he returned to the UFC lightweight division April 2017. He’s 9-3 (with one no contest) in the organization at 155 pounds.

Oliveira’s average fight time of 4:51 in UFC lightweight competition is the second shortest in divisional history behind Manny Gamburyan (4:45).

Oliveira’s six-fight UFC winning streak at lightweight is tied for the third longest active streak in the division behind Tony Ferguson (12) and Khabib Nurmagomedov (11).

Oliveira’s six-fight UFC stoppage streak is the longest active streak in the company.

Oliveira’s 15 stoppage victories in UFC competition are second most in company history behind Donald Cerrone (16).

Oliveira’s 13 submission victories in UFC competition are most in company history.

Oliveira’s six submission victories in UFC featherweight competition are the most in divisional history.

Oliveira’s four guillotine-choke victories in UFC competition are tied with Nate Diaz for most in company history.

Oliveira is one of two fighters in UFC history with multiple submission victories via anaconda choke. Phil Davis also accomplished the feat.

Charles Oliveira

Oliveira is one of two fighters in UFC history to earn submission victories with six different techniques. Frank Mir also accomplished the feat.

Oliveira is one of two fighters in UFC history to earn a calf-slicer submission victory. Brett Johns also accomplished the feat.

Oliveira has been awarded 15 fight-night bonuses for UFC bouts, the tied with Nate Diaz and Joe Lauzon for second most in company history behind Cerrone (18).

Oliveira has been awarded nine “Performance of the Night” bonuses, the most in company history.

Oliveira is the only fighter in UFC history to be awarded five or more fight-night bonuses in two separate divisions.

Co-main event

Demian Maia

[autotag]Demian Maia[/autotag] (28-9 MMA, 22-9 UFC), 42, is the oldest of the 24 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.

Maia competes in his 32nd UFC bout, tied with Jeremy Stephens for the third-most appearances in company history behind Cerrone (34) and Jim Miller (34).

Maia’s 22 victories in UFC competition are second most in company history behind Donald Cerrone (23).

Maia’s 22 victories in UFC competition are the most of any Brazilian fighter in company history.

Maia’s total fight time of 6:32:06 in UFC competition is third most in company history behind Frankie Edgar (7:15:51) and Rafael Dos Anjos (6:43:11).

Maia is 13-5 since he dropped to the UFC welterweight division in July 2012.

Maia’s 11 submission victories in UFC competition are second most in company history behind Oliveira (13).

Maia’s nine submission victories via rear-naked choke in UFC competition are most in company history.

Maia’s 65 takedowns landed in UFC competition are sixth most in company history.

Maia’s 251 takedown attempts in UFC competition are the most in company history.

Maia once went a combined 0-for-49 on takedown attempts over a three-fight UFC stretch. It’s the longest streak of failed attempts in UFC history without a takedown landed.

Maia was unsuccessful on all 21 of his takedown attempts against champ Tyron Woodley at UFC 214, the second worst title-fight output in UFC history behind Diego Sanchez’s 0-for-27 effort against B.J. Penn at UFC 107.

Maia completed just two of 22 takedown attempts in his unanimous-decision loss to Rory MacDonald at UFC 170. Those 22 takedown attempts were the most in a single UFC welterweight bout.

[autotag]Gilbert Burns[/autotag] (17-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC) is 2-0 since he returned to the welterweight division in August 2019. He’s 3-0 when fighting at the weight class.

Burns’ three armbar victories in UFC competition are tied for third most in company history behind Royce Gracie (four) and Demetrious Johnson (four).

Remaining main card

Renato Moicano

[autotag]Renato Moicano[/autotag] (13-3-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC) moves up to the UFC lightweight division after spending his previous eight promotional appearances at featherweight.

Moicano enters the event on the first losing skid of his career. He hasn’t earned a victory since August 2018.

[autotag]Johnny Walker[/autotag] (17-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has earned 16 of his 17 career victories by stoppage. That includes all three of his UFC wins.

Walker is one of seven fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a spinning back fist. He accomplished the feat at UFC on ESPN+ 2.

Walker is one of two fighters in UFC history to win a light heavyweight bout by knockout stemming from a flying knee. James Irvin also accomplished the feat.

Walker is one of five fighters in modern UFC history to win a light heavyweight bout by knockout in 15 seconds or less. He accomplished the feat at UFC on ESPN+ 2.

[autotag]Nikita Krylov[/autotag] (25-7 MMA, 7-5 UFC) is 1-2 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in September 2018.

Krylov is 9-5 since he dropped to the light heavyweight division in March 2014.

Krylov has earned all of his 25 career victories by stoppage. He’s finished 20 of those wins in Round 1.

Krylov lands 56.1 percent of his significant strike attempts in UFC light heavyweight competition, the second best rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Jon Jones (57.9 percent).

Krylov’s 25-second knockout at UFC on FOX 10 marked the fastest finish stemming from a head kick in UFC history.

Francisco Trinaldo

[autotag]Francisco Trinaldo[/autotag] (24-7 MMA, 14-6 UFC), 41, is the oldest active fighter in the UFC lightweight division.

Trinaldo has alternated wins and losses over his past seven fights. He won his most recent bout at UFC on ESPN+ 22 in November.

Trinaldo’s 12 UFC victories in Brazil are the most in company history.

Trinaldo is the only fighter in UFC history to earn two arm-triangle submission victories from half-guard.

[autotag]John Makdessi[/autotag] (17-6 MMA, 10-6 UFC) is one of seven fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a spinning back fist. He accomplished the feat at UFC 129.

Makdessi defends 71.4 percent of opponent significant strike attempts in UFC lightweight competition, the second highest rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Nasrat Haqparast (74.1 percent).

Makdessi defends 86.8 percent of all opponent takedown attempts in UFC lightweight competition, the third best among active fighters in the weight class behind Cerrone (90 percent) and Mairbek Taisumov (88.5 percent).

Preliminary card

Jussier Formiga

[autotag]Jussier Formiga[/autotag] (23-5 MMA, 9-4 UFC) competes in his 15th UFC flyweight bout, tied with Demetrious Johnson for the second most appearances in divisional history behind Joseph Benavidez (17).

Formiga’s nine victories in UFC flyweight competition are third most in divisional history behind Johnson (13) and Benavidez (13).

Formiga’s three submission victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Johnson (five).

Formiga defends 86.2 percent of all opponent takedown attempts in UFC flyweight competition, the third best rate in divisional history behind Kai Kara-France (90.9 percent) and Ian McCall (90 percent).

[autotag]Brandon Moreno[/autotag] (16-5-1 MMA, 4-2-1 UFC) is 1-0-1 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in September.

[autotag]Randa Markos[/autotag] (10-7-1 MMA, 6-6-1 UFC) competes in her 14th UFC strawweight bout, tied with Angela Hill for the most appearances in divisional history.

Markos is 3-3-1 in her past seven UFC appearance dating back to August 2017.

Markos’ six victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied for fourth most in divisional history behind Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10), Jessica Andrade (seven) and Hill (seven).

Markos has completed at least one takedown against 10 of her 13 UFC opponents.

Markos’ four split-decision results in UFC strawweight competition are most in divisional history.

Markos and Marina Rodriguez fought to the first draw in UFC strawweight history at UFC Fight Night 137 in September 2018.

Rani Yahya

[autotag]Rani Yahya[/autotag] (26-10 MMA, 11-4 UFC) has earned 20 of his 26 career victories by submission. He’s finished 13 of those wins in Round 1.

Yahya’s eight stoppage victories in UFC/WEC bantamweight competition are tied with T.J. Dillashaw, Urijah Faber and Eddie Wineland for most in combined divisional history.

Yahya’s eight submission victories in UFC/WEC bantamweight competition are most in combined divisional history.

Yahya is one of four fighters in UFC history to earn a north-south choke submission in UFC competition. Jake Ellenberger, Jeff Monson and Michel Prazeres have also accomplished the feat.

Yahya’s 21 takedowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for fourth most in divisional history behind Merab Dvalishvili (39), Urijah Faber (26) and Dominick Cruz (23).

[autotag]Enrique Barzola[/autotag] (16-5-1 MMA, 6-3 UFC) drops to the UFC bantamweight division after spending his previous nine promotional appearances at featherweight.

Barzola has earned all six of his UFC victories by decision.

Barzola’s 36 takedowns landed in UFC featherweight competition are third most in divisional history behind Dennis Bermudez (46) and Darren Elkins (40).

Barzola is one five fighters in history to earned 10 or more takedowns in a UFC/WEC featherweight bout. He accomplished the feat at UFC Fight Night 129.

[autotag]Mayra Bueno Silva[/autotag] (6-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Sept. 22, 2018. The 539-day layoff is the longest of her nearly four-year career.

[autotag]Veronica Macedo[/autotag] (6-3-1 MMA, 1-3 UFC), 24, is the youngest of the 24 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.

Macedo returns to the UFC women’s bantamweight division after going 1-2 in the flyweight division.

Macedo’s submission victory at 1:09 of Round 1 at UFC on ESPN+ 15 is the fastest finish in UFC women’s flyweight history.

UFC research analyst and live statistics producer Michael Carroll contributed to this story. Follow him on Twitter @MJCflipdascript.

UFC on ESPN+ 28: Make your predictions for Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira in Brasilia

We want your predictions for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 28 event in Brasilia, Brazil, featuring Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira.

We want your predictions for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 28 event in Brasilia, Brazil.

Our staff picks feature includes the consensus picks from MMA Junkie readers. Simply cast your vote for each bout below, and we’ll use the official tallies that are registered by Thursday at noon ET (9 a.m. PT).

Those MMA Junkie reader consensus picks will be part of the UFC on ESPN+ 28 event staff predictions we release Friday ahead of the event. UFC on ESPN+ 28 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams on ESPN+.

Make your picks for all five main card fights inside:

Video: Check out the best spinning finishes in UFC history

Except for maybe Nick Diaz, everyone loves to see spinning (expletive). So check out the UFC’s highlight reel of memorable spinning KOs.

To mangle a legendary Nick Diaz saying, you want spinning (expletive), you got spinning (expletive).

A spinning knockout is the best of all worlds in mixed martial arts. Not only does it have “wow factor” necessary for a memorable moment – have you ever seen a boring spinning finish? – but it also highlights the sport at its technical finest.

With that in mind, the UFC has put together a highlight reel of some of the flashiest spinning back fists, elbows and kicks ever seen in the octagon.

From [autotag]Uriah Hall[/autotag] to [autotag]John Makdessi[/autotag] to [autotag]Paul Felder[/autotag] to [autotag]Dennis Siver[/autotag] and so many more, there’s a little something in here for everyone.

So take a trip down memory lane and relive some of the most memorable spinning stoppages in UFC history in the video above.

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Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi added to UFC Brasilia

Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi is the latest addition to UFC on ESPN+ 28 in Brazil.

[autotag]Francisco Trinaldo[/autotag] will not have to leave his home country for his next UFC bout.

The lightweight veteran has been booked to take on [autotag]John Makdessi[/autotag] at UFC on ESPN+ 28 on March 14 in Brasilia, Brazil. The news was announced by the promotion Tuesday.

[lawrence-related id=463899]

Trinaldo (24-7 MMA, 14-6 UFC) last fought in November at UFC on ESPN+ 22, where he picked up a unanimous decision win over Bobby Green. The victory evened his record at 3-3 over his last six bouts. “Massaranduba” has alternated wins and losses since 2017. Trinaldo is 40 years old and has been fighting in the UFC since 2012.

On the other side of the matchup, Makdessi (17-6 MMA, 10-6 UFC) will make a return after a year of inactivity. The Canadian last competed in March, defeating Jesus Pinedo via unanimous decision. Makdessi, 34, is on a three-fight win streak.

Below is the latest UFC Brasilia lineup:

  • Nikita Krylov vs. Johnny Walker
  • Jussier Formiga vs. Brandon Moreno
  • Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant
  • Aleksei Kunchenko vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
  • Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Makhmud Muradov
  • Enrique Barzola vs. Rani Yahya
  • Veronica Macedo vs. Bea Malecki
  • Maryna Moroz vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
  • Gilbert Burns vs. Demian Maia
  • Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi

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