In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Jeremy Stephens and Mateusz Gamrot meet at UFC on ESPN 26 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 26 Stephens vs. Gamrot odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.
Stephens has gone 0-4 with one No Contest over his last five fights, including a second-round KO/TKO to Calvin Kattar last time out May 9, 2020, at UFC 249. His last win was February 24, 2018, over three calendar years ago, against Josh Emmett in the main event.
Gamrot made his UFC debut October 17, 2020, with a split-decision loss to Guram Kutateladze. He rebounded on the Vettori-Holland Fight Night card April 10 by picking up a second-round KO/TKO win over Scott Holtzman to gain major confidence.
UFC on ESPN 26 Stephens vs. Gamrot: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Stephens +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Gamrot -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +105 | No -130)
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UFC on ESPN 26 Stephens vs. Gamrot: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Stephens 28-18-0 | Gamrot 18-1-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
STEPHENS (+180) is in desperate need of a victory and he’ll get it against favorited Gamrot. While he has the five-bout winless skid the losses to Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, Zabit Magomedsharipov and Jose Aldo are certainly nothing to be ashamed about. That’s quite the gauntlet, and two of the fights went the distance, so Stephens is battle-tested.
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Over/Under (O/U)
STEPHENS ON POINTS (+455) is worth a roll of the dice. This is just too good of a value to pass on as if he is going to get the victory he will do it by wowing the judges. The veteran hasn’t stuck around this long because he has no talent, he has just had a tough stretch lately against top big-time opponents.
In addition, play YES (+105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, and you needn’t specify a winner on that particular wager. Also, if you want a little wiggle room, going with OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110) isn’t a bad value and protects against the late third-round finish.
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