Tag: Jazz Pacers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Indiana Pacers (14-25) host the Utah Jazz (28-11), who is on the second of a back-to-back, Saturday at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Utah lost last night (Friday) at the Toronto Raptors 122-108, barely losing ATS as 13.5-point road underdogs. However, the Jazz were missing several key players including guards Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and big Rudy Gobert.

Over the past two weeks, the Jazz are 6-2 straight-up (SU), 3-4-1 ATS and 4-4 O/U with the 11th-best adjusted net rating at plus-4.4 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Indiana is on a six-game losing streak with the latest being a 129-121 loss at home to the Brooklyn Nets in Kyrie Irving’s return. But, the Pacers barely covered as 8.5-point home underdogs.

In the last 14 days, the Pacers are 2-3-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U in the midst of their six-game losing streak. Indiana has the 22nd-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-6.3 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

The Pacers (+11.5) upset the Jazz 111-100 in Utah Nov. 11 and the Under has cashed in four straight Jazz-Pacers meetings.

Jazz at Pacers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Jazz -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pacers +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
• Against the spread (ATS): Jazz -3.5 (-115) | Pacers +3.5 (-107)
• Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Jazz at Pacers key injuries

Jazz

• SG Jordan Clarkson (back) probable
• PG Mike Conley (knee) probable
• SG Donovan Mitchell (back) probable
• SF Bojan Bogdanovic (finger) probable
• PF Royce O’Neal (knee) questionable
• PF Rudy Gay (heel) questionable
• C Rudy Gobert (health and safety protocols) out
• SF Joe Ingles (health and safety protocols) out

Pacers

• SG Chris Duarte (reconditioning) questionable
• PG Malcolm Brogdon (reconditioning) questionable
• SG Jeremy Lamb (reconditioning) questionable
• SG Caris LeVert (health and safety protocols) out
• SF Torrey Craig (health and safety protocols) out
• C Goga Bitadze (health and safety protocols) out

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Jazz at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 116, Jazz 113

Money line

PASS because there’s too much uncertainty with Utah’s injury report at the moment and Indiana’s money line payout isn’t fat enough. Also, the Jazz are 13-3 SU as a road favorite and the Pacers are 1-5 SU as a home underdog.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the PACERS +3.5 (-107) because there’s reverse line movement towards Indiana in the betting market and this is a slightly better spot for the Pacers.

According to Pregame.com, roughly 85% of the action is on Utah but Indiana has gone from a 4-point underdog on the opener to the current price. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Furthermore, the Pacers are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog, 8-4 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS versus the Western Conference.

That said, I only “LEAN” to the PACERS +3.5 (-107) because the Jazz are 11-7 ATS in away games with a plus-5.0 ATS margin and have the best adjusted net rating on the road at plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions (CTG).

Over/Under

Since we know Gobert and Ingles are definitely sidelined with COVID for this game, I’d BET the OVER 225.5 (-108).

Gobert grades in the 97th percentile of bigs in adjusted on/off defensive rating (first on Utah) and Ingles grades in the 86th percentile of forwards (third on Utah), per CTG.

Obviously, Gobert’s absence makes a much bigger difference since he’s the reigning, and three-time, Defensive Player of the Year.

Also, the OVER 225.5 (-108) has been steamed up from the 220-point opener despite the Under cashing in four straight Jazz-Pacers meetings.

For what it’s worth, the OVER 225.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this contest.

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