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The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) and Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) face off Saturday in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
This will be the 2nd matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs this season. The Chiefs beat the Jags 27-17 in Week 10, pushing as 10-point home favorites. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes finished with 331 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, while Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 259 yards and 2 TDs and was sacked 5 times.
The Jaguars, the AFC’s 4th seed, just completed a 31-30 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. The Chargers led 27-0 in the 2nd quarter, but the Jaguars managed a comeback and won as 2-point underdogs.
As the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Chiefs enjoyed a bye during the Wild Card Round. Chiefs coach Andy Reid holds a career record of 27-6 after the bye (including postseason) and is 2-0 against Jaguars coach Doug Pederson.
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Jaguars at Chiefs odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Jaguars +380 (bet $100 to win $380) | Chiefs -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jaguars +9 (-110) | Chiefs -9 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Jaguars at Chiefs key injuries
Jaguars
- C Luke Fortner (back) questionable
- QB Trevor Lawrence (toe) questionable
- LS Ross Matiscik (back) questionable
- OL Brandon Scherff (abdomen) questionable
Chiefs
- WR Mecole Hardman (pelvis) out
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Jaguars at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24
Moneyline
Last week, Lawrence and the Jaguars proved they belong in the playoffs. While the Chiefs are the heavy favorites here, the Jags won’t be easy to beat. Sure, the Chiefs won by 10 points last time they met, but the Jaguars are 7-1 since that loss and are playing much better on both sides of the ball.
That said, Kansas City is still in a different tier above Jacksonville. Both the Chiefs offense and defense are clicking at the right time and the team is almost fully healthy. After a much-needed rest, the Chiefs should be able to take care of business at home.
AVOID the moneyline since betting 4.75 times the potential profit on Kansas City (-475) is not worth the risk.
Against the spread
The Chiefs covered the spread against an AFC team just once this season — in Week 18 against an eliminated Las Vegas Raiders squad led by backup QB Jarrett Stidham. The Chiefs certainly have the ability to cover in this game, but the Jaguars are coming in hot and the Chiefs tend to play their opponents close no matter their talent level.
LEAN JAGUARS +9 (-110).
Over/Under
The Over is 9-9 in Jacksonville’s games and 8-9 in Kansas City’s games this season. The Chiefs and Jaguars went 7.5 points Under their 51.5-point projected total in Week 10, but recent offensive performances point to the Over being the better play here.
The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game in their last 5 contests while the Jaguars have averaged 29.5 points per game in their last 6. Given that this is a playoff matchup, there’s reason to believe that more scoring awaits.
LEAN OVER 52.5 (-112).
Bonus props
Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Jaguars have allowed 831 receiving yards to RBs for an average of 46.2 yards per game this season, including the playoffs. In Weeks 14-17, McKinnon averaged 66.3 receiving yards per game, and also pulled in 56 receiving yards against the Jags in Week 10. The Chiefs rested McKinnon some in Week 18, but he still managed to score a receiving TD — in fact, McKinnon has notched at least 1 receiving TD in each of his last 6 games. Mahomes often dumps the ball off to McKinnon, who is great at finding blocks and space as a receiver.
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Chiefs have allowed 1,523 yards to slot WRs, or roughly 89.6 yards per game. Out of Kirk’s 1,186 yards in 2022 (including postseason), 1,036 have come in the slot, including all 105 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10. Lawrence will look to Kirk plenty in this game — Kirk had 12 targets against the Chiefs in Week 10 and 14 targets against the Chargers last week. Kirk should rack up plenty of underneath yardage in this game.
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