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The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3, 3-0 Conference USA) meet the Liberty Flames (5-1, 3-1) in a Wednesday night showdown in Lynchburg, Va. The opening kickoff at Williams Stadium will be at 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Jacksonville State vs. Liberty odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Jacksonville State won its fourth consecutive game last Wednesday when it drubbed Middle Tennessee 42-20 (covered -20.5). The Gamecocks rushed for a season-high 438 yards; only one other team (Liberty twice in 2023) has rushed for over-400 yards since the beginning of 2023. JSU has scored 203 points over its last 4 games.
Liberty also played last Wednesday and lost a regular-season game for the first time since 2022 when they dropped a 27-24 contest (as a -26.5 favorite) at Kennesaw State.
The Flames topped the Gamecocks 31-13 (covering a -7) in last year’s meeting in Jacksonville, Ala. (Oct. 10, 2023).
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Jacksonville State at Liberty odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Jacksonville State +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Liberty -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jacksonville State +2.5 (-110) | Liberty -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Jacksonville State at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 31, Jacksonville State 28
Moneyline
Neither side has played much of a schedule, and that muddies the water in parsing some strengths and weaknesses.
But Liberty is at home and has the better defense. The Flames have yielded just 321.3 total yards per game; that ranks second in CUSA. Especially when it comes to success-rate analytics, the Liberty defense is a separator in this matchup. The Flames are especially strong on the defensive line, and in a game where both sides will look to hammer the ground game look for Liberty to have an edge in forcing more passing downs.
The Flames were much the better team when these foes met last October, and they can be regarded as a near-60% probability to take this one.
TAKE LIBERTY (-130).
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Against the spread
The Flames are a lean, but a 1-score game would not be a surprise. PASS.
Over/Under
Peg this matchup as being run-heavy, and an exchange into the 50s has a good probability of slowing before the scale is tipped.
Last year’s meeting cashed on an Under 59.5, and the UNDER 63.5 (-110) is the best leverage play on Wednesday.
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