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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) face the Houston Texans (2-1) Sunday. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Jaguars vs. Texans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Week 3 showed us that the AFC South is, again, a weak division with the Jaguars and Texans really stumbling.
The Texans traveled to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, and they got pummeled. Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw 2 interceptions and RB Cam Akers led the team in rushing yards with 21. The Vikings, on the other hand, enjoyed 4.2 yards per rush and won 34-7. While the Texans are 2-1, their earlier opponents, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears don’t appear to be as strong as many expected in the offseason.
The Jaguars were on the road in Week 3, too, and their season seems to be teetering already. At halftime, they trailed 34-3 as their defense gave up 5 straight touchdown drives. Jacksonville struggled on 3rd down succeeding on just 2 of their 13 attempts. QB Trevor Lawrence also took 5 sacks while their defense failed to get to Bills QB Josh Allen. In the end Buffalo won 47-10.
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Jaguars at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Jaguars +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Texans -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jaguars +6 (-110) | Texans -6 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Jaguars at Texans key injuries
Jaguars
- WR Gabe Davis (shoulder) questionable
- TE Evan Engram (hamstring) out
- CB Jarrian Jones (shoulder) questionable
- LB Devin Lloyd (knee) questionable
- LB Foyesade Oluokun (foot) out
- S Darnell Savage Jr. (quad) questionable
Texans
- WR Tank Dell (chest) out
- DT Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder) questionable
- RB Joe Mixon (ankle) questionable
- RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring) out
- S Jimmie Ward (groin) out
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Jaguars at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 28, Jaguars 20
Moneyline
Whether it’s Lawrence or his receivers, the Jaguars have trouble moving the ball. They are averaging 15 incompletions per game, 4th worst in the NFL. Plus Jacksonville allows 7.4 yards per pass, well above Houston’s 5.8 yards. The Texans are the better team but at their odds its best to PASS and look to the spread.
Against the spread
The line was originally set at Texans -7, which this NFL season would have been a red flag.
There have been 4 games this season with a spread greater than 6.5, in each one of them the underdog covered and won. The Bengals lost to the Patriots and Commanders. The Ravens lost the the Raiders, and the Lions lost to the Buccaneers.
The line moved towards the Jaguars and is now under the unlucky 7, and I think Houston is primed for a bounce-back game.
LEAN TEXANS -6 (-110).
Over/Under
There are a few reasons to expect a high-scoring game. Jacksonville is quick to give up the run, passing 63% of the time. Houston is not far off throwing the ball in 62% of their plays.
The other reason is penalties. The Texans are 30th in the NFL with an average of 9.3 penalties a game while the Jaguars have enjoyed 83.3 yards per game from their opponent’s mistakes, which is 1st in the league.
BET OVER 44.5 (-110).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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