The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) travel to TIAA Bank Field Sunday for their Week 12 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) at 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Falcons vs. Jaguars odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Atlanta was embarrassed in a 25-0 whooping by the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. The Falcons have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games, all three losses.
Atlanta’s offense has the second-worst efficiency in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS and 5-5 O/U.
Jacksonville has lost three of its last four outings including back-to-back games at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 and to the San Francisco 49ers this past weekend. The Jaguars have the league’s second-worst turnover differential and worst third-down conversion percentage. Jacksonville is 4-6 ATS and 2-8 ATS.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 12 picks and predictions
Falcons at Jaguars odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:49 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Falcons -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Jaguars +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons -2.5 (-108) | Jaguars +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Falcons at Jaguars key injuries
Falcons
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) questionable
- DE Jonathan Bullard (ankle) out
- WR Calvin Ridley (personal) out
- LB Deion Jones (shoulder) questionable
Jaguars
- CB Shaquill Griffin (concussion) out
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Falcons at Jaguars odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Jaguars 23, Falcons 20
Money line
GIMME the JAGUARS (+105) for 1 unit because the idea of the Falcons being a road favorite over any team is laughable.
I get that Jacksonville has been disappointing in the first year of the Urban Meyer-Trevor Lawrence era. However, Atlanta is far worse than its record indicates.
The Falcons dead-last with a -42.7% DVOA per FootballOutsiders.com, whereas the Jaguars rank 27th with a -22.9% DVOA.
Atlanta also hasn’t been positive in net efficiency in a single game this season and its four victories are by a combined 14 points.
At least the Jaguars had a positive single-game DVOA in their win over the Buffalo Bills. Football Outsiders is effectively saying that Atlanta hasn’t outplayed its opponent in any game this season.
What’s even odder than the Falcons being a slight favorite here is the market steaming Atlanta up to a favorite in the first place. According to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, an overwhelming majority of the market is betting the Falcons in this spot.
Despite how poorly Jacksonville has looked at times, there’s just more value in fading the market and taking the JAGUARS (+105) as a road underdog against a terrible Falcons team.
Against the spread
I prefer JACKSONVILLE +2.5 (-112) more than the money line now that the line has risen from +1.5. If it drops to 1.5 again before kickoff, I’d only have a slight “lean” as it doesn’t offer much value instead of just taking the Jags straight up.
Also, I “like” the Jaguars as a teaser leg, if your sportsbook offers teasers.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Under 45.5 (-112) since there’s been a “sharp line” move towards the Under. The Falcons-Jaguars game opened with a 48-point total but has been steamed down to the current number.
However, it’s tough to decipher which unit is worse for each team and we’d be getting to the party late on the Under at this point.
Also see: All Week 12 odds and lines
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