In a middleweight championship bout in the co-main event, Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier meet Saturday at UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on Pay-Per-View starts at 10 p.m.
Adesanya – a.k.a. “The Last Stylebender” – heads into this one looking to successfully defend his strap for the 5th straight outing. He won the belt from Marvin Vettori in June 2021, and defended it with another unanimous-decision win over Robert Whittaker at UFC 271 in February.
Stylebender went the distance in each of his past 3 outings. The Nigerian-born champ has had finishes in just 3 of his past 11 bouts. He does it with flare and technical ability, wowing the judges, but he was on the wrong side of things against Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259 (March 2021), and certainly can be beaten, although that fight was an unsuccessful step up to the light heavyweight division.
Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson at UFC 271, following up a unanimous-decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in the main event in August 2021. As far as common opponents, Cannonier lost a unanimous-decision fight at UFC 254 to Whittaker.
The challenger – a.k.a. “The Killa Gorilla” – had KO/TKO finishes in 5 of his past 7 UFC bouts, winning 4 of those showings. He holds his own in terms of significant strikes landed per minute vs. Adesanya, with the champ holding a slight 3.84-to-3.76 edge. Cannonier is a little more accurate at 54.32% to 53.04% for Adesanya.
The ground game favors Adesanya, should it get to that point, as Cannonier has never had a submission result at the UFC level, and he hasn’t had a submission win since April 2013 – at the AK Entertainment level. Adesanya has a 0.21 submission average, but he has yet to win or lose a fight by that method, so toss that out when finalizing your ticket.
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UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:44 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Adesanya -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Cannonier +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
- Total rounds: Over 4.5 (-107) | Under 4.5 (-127)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-117) | No (-116)
[tipico]
UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier picks and predictions
Records: Adesanya (22-1-0) | Cannonier (15-5-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
There is absolutely no value playing Adesanya (-500) straight up, or even as part of a 3- or 4-fighter parlay.
The champ, who holds a 2.5-inch reach advantage, and 5-inch height advantage, should win Saturday night. The books seem to feel that there is a slight edge to the fight not going the distance, which would seem to mean it will be Cannonier’s kind of fight, as Adesanya rarely gets finishes. However, Adesanya is heavily favored, so it’s a bit contradictory.
Instead, take ADESANYA BY POINTS (+122), as he has gone the distance in 3 straight, and 6 of the past 8 fights, and he will dictate the pace of the fight from the start.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-117): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a decent value. Adesanya has had just 2 finishes since November 2018. It’s not to say he isn’t capable, as he has a devastating fist, but it’s just not his game. Cannonier might try and impose his will early, looking for the big blow, but Adesanya will weather the storm and the champ will make the challenger fight at his slow, methodical speed.
Neither of these fighters throw a ton of punches per minute, and this will be a technical bout, needing the judges decide whose style was better.
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