Following UFC 302, Islam Makhachev gave his immediate road map and what he wants next – and he’d prefer Arman Tsarukyan not be part of that.
NEWARK, N.J. – [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] will accept whatever challenge the promotion offers him next, but his preferences are clear.
Following UFC 302, UFC CEO Dana White called a matchup vs. [autotag]Arman Tsarukyan[/autotag] the fight to make for Makhachev (27-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC). However, the lightweight champion much prefers a step up in division instead after his submission win Saturday over Dustin Poirier.
“Who doesn’t want to be double champion?” Makhachev told reporters, including MMA Junkie, at a post-fight news conference Sunday at Prudential Center. “This is history. How many double champions we have? This is a dream for all fighters, to get second belt.
“This is my dream. I want to be in the history and people know me like double champ. This is my dream. If I have chance, a small chance, I will get. If you want a great legacy, you have to get second belt. It’s my opinion.”
[lawrence-related id=2743658,2744714]
Makhachev repeatedly called for a fight at Madison Square Garden in New York and voiced enjoyment in fighting in the United States.
While Makhachev said he’d agree to fight Tsarukyan (22-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) if that’s what White wants, the prospect of fighting someone he already beat is largely unappealing.
Makhachev defeated Tsarukyan by unanimous decision in April 2019. It was Tsarukyan’s promotional debut.
“I’m ready, man,” Makhachev said. “Dana has my number. Just call me and put some new challenge. … It does not make sense when you have rematch. I need some new challenge. But if Dana want, let’s do it. No problem.”
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
Fighters from Saturday’s UFC 302 took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay totaling $218,500.
NEWARK, N.J. – Fighters from Saturday’s UFC 302 event took home UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance pay totaling $281,500.
The program, a comprehensive plan that includes outfitting requirements, media obligations and other items under the fighter code of conduct, replaces the previous payments made under the UFC Athlete Outfitting Policy.
UFC 302 took place at Prudential Center. The main card aired on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.
The full UFC 302 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts included:
Under the UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance program’s payout tiers, which appropriate the money generated by Venum’s multi-year sponsorship with the UFC, fighters are paid based on their total number of UFC bouts, as well as Zuffa-era WEC fights (January 2007 and later) and Zuffa-era Strikeforce bouts (April 2011 and later). Fighters with 1-3 bouts receive $4,000 per appearance; 4-5 bouts get $4,500; 6-10 bouts get $6,000; 11-15 bouts earn $11,000; 16-20 bouts pocket $16,000; and 21 bouts and more get $21,000. Additionally, champions earn $42,000 while title challengers get $32,000.
In addition to experience-based pay, UFC fighters will receive in perpetuity royalty payments amounting to 20-30 percent of any UFC merchandise sold that bears their likeness, according to officials.
Full 2024 UFC Promotional Guidelines Compliance payouts:
Dustin Poirier had his moments at UFC 302 and even sliced the champion, but Islam Makhachev got the job done late.
NEWARK, N.J. – [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag] had 25 minutes to finish the story, but [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] wrote an alternate ending.
In an all-time thrilling battle, Makhachev (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) submitted Poirier (30-8 MMA, 22-7 UFC) with a D’Arce choke at the 2:42 mark of Round 5. The lightweight title bout was the UFC 302 main event Saturday at Prudential Center.
Poirier immediately found himself in deep, dangerous waters early in Round 1, as Makhachev almost immediately took him down. Makhachev worked to the back but Poirier’s rear-naked choke defense was sufficient enough to survive the round.
As Round 2 progressed, Poirier found increasing success. He stuffed Makhachev’s takedown attempts, though each sequence was a lengthy struggle. Poirier found success in the pocket and in the clinch, particularly with a left elbow.
With each strike Poirier landed, Prudential Center burst into deafening cheers. Chants of “F*ck you, Islam,” also proved this was Poirier’s turf.
But Makhachev blocked out the thousands of expletives spit his way. In Round 3, he landed some hard punches on Poirier before he dragged it to the canvas once again. Poirier dug deep, raised to the feet, and shoved Makhachev off.
Upon the break, Poirier blew out a half-booger, half-blood hybrid and marched forward. Poirier landed on Makhachev, who returned. The two fighters exchanged blows until the end-of-round horn. Poirier stuck out his tongue as he walked back to the corner, his eyes swollen.
Both fighters showed wear, tear, and fatigue in the early stages of the championship rounds. An initially-slow clinch sequence against the cage burst into a Poirier body shot barrage as he punished the champion’s midsection.
As they separated, Poirier came on strong. He sliced Makhachev badly above the left eye. At the end of the round, the two fighters came forehead-to-forehead, leaving blood prints on one another.
In the final round, Makhachev engaged Poirier in a takedown attempt. He was relentless and used a single-leg takedown that tripped Poirier. Makhachev eventually worked for a guillotine choke that he switched to a D’Arce to get the tap.
Poirier remained down while doctors and commission officials tended to him. Makhachev’s team hopped the cage in celebration. That included Bellator champion Usman Nurmagomedov, who was seated in the crowd but still scaled a barrier and the cage to hug his teammate. Nurmagomedov was escorted backstage by security.
After the fight, Makhachev called for a welterweight title shot after his third successful lightweight title defense.
Poirier hinted once again at retirement, but couldn’t commit. Poirier was emotional as he shouted out his loved ones for their support throughout his career.
Up-to-the-minute UFC 302 results include:
Islam Makhachev def. Dustin Poirier via submission (D’Arce choke) – Round 5, 2:42
Check out what the UFC 302 winners and guest fighters had to say backstage at Saturday’s event.
NEWARK, N.J. – UFC 302 took place Saturday with 12 bouts on the lineup. We’ve got you covered with backstage winner interviews from Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
You can hear from all the UFC 302 winners by checking out their post-fight news conferences below.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
Before the fights get underway, join MMA Junkie’s Farah Hannoun for a live-streamed preview of UFC 302.
The UFC is back in New Jersey with UFC 302, headlined by a lightweight title fight and a middleweight banger, and before the fights get underway, Farah Hannoun will host a live-streamed preview show right here, which kicks off at 5 p.m. ET.
In the main event, lightweight champion [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) puts his title on the line against former interim champ [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag] (30-8 MMA, 22-7 UFC). In the co-main event, former middleweight champion [autotag]Sean Strickland[/autotag] (28-6 MMA, 15-6 UFC) faces former title challenger [autotag]Paulo Costa[/autotag] (14-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC).
UFC 302 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
Below is the complete lineup of fights:
MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
Champ Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier – for lightweight title
Paulo Costa vs. Sean Strickland
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Alex Morono vs. Niko Price
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
Jake Matthews vs. Phil Rowe
EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
Bassil Hafez vs. Mickey Gall
Joselyne Edwards vs. Ailin Perez
Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
Join MMA Junkie Radio’s “Gorgeous” George and “Goze” for a live-streamed watch-along of UFC 302 in New Jersey.
The UFC is back in New Jersey with UFC 302 on Saturday, headlined by a lightweight title fight and a middleweight banger, and MMA Junkie Radio’s “Gorgeous” George and “Goze” will host a live-streamed watch-along right here, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET.
In the main event, lightweight champion [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) puts his title on the line against former interim champ [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag] (30-8 MMA, 22-7 UFC). In the co-main event, former middleweight champion [autotag]Sean Strickland[/autotag] (28-6 MMA, 15-6 UFC) faces former title challenger [autotag]Paulo Costa[/autotag] (14-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC).
UFC 302 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
Below is the complete lineup of fights:
MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
Champ Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier – for lightweight title
Paulo Costa vs. Sean Strickland
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Alex Morono vs. Niko Price
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
Jake Matthews vs. Phil Rowe
EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
Bassil Hafez vs. Mickey Gall
Joselyne Edwards vs. Ailin Perez
Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
In final UFC 302 “Embedded” episode, Dustin Poirier lets Islam Makhachev know that he was NOT disrespecting his family – and would never.
The UFC is back on the East Coast with UFC 302, and the popular “Embedded” fight week video series is here to document what’s happening behind the scenes.
UFC 302 (pay-per-view/ESPN/ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
In the headliner, lightweight champion [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) puts his belt on the line against former interim champ [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag] (30-8 MMA, 22-7 UFC). In the co-feature, [autotag]Paulo Costa[/autotag] (14-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) meets former middleweight champ [autotag]Sean Strickland[/autotag] (28-6 MMA, 15-6 UFC).
The sixth and episode of “Embedded” follows the featured fighters while they get ready for fight week. Here is the UFC’s description of the episode from YouTube:
With camps complete, the athletes of UFC 302 in Newark focus on making weight; Niko Price heads out for a sushi lunch; Champion Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier face off one last time before meeting in the Octagon on Saturday, June 1, 2024.
Dustin Poirier faces a monumental challenge in Islam Makhachev as he tries to finally claim undisputed gold at UFC 302. Can he do it?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 302 main event between lightweight champion [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] and [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag].
Supplemental info: +Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Thug-jitsu disciple
+ 15 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall boxing
^ Cage-cuts, shifts, takes angles
+ Accurate left cross and right hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambling
+/- 6-2 against UFC-level southpaws
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) fights Dustin Poirier (red gloves) during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
The main event in New Jersey features a lightweight title fight between two talented southpaws, [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag] and [autotag]Dustin Poirier[/autotag].
As I always state in my analysis, no one hates fighting other southpaws more than southpaws themselves. The reason is that most people who fight from that stance tend to predicate their games against orthodox-stance fighters due to the sheer nature of abundance, making it tricky to predict how pairings of lefties will play out.
These somewhat unique stance pairings not only open up traditional lanes of offense that aren’t usually available to southpaws (like outside leg attacks), but I would also argue that these matchups reveal potential problem areas that may not otherwise be apparent to a fighter given what they’re typically allowed to get away with in open-stance affairs.
Poirier, who has more experience in these sorts of matchups, currently stands at 6-2 opposite UFC-level lefties.
An aggressive fighter out of the chute, the 15-year pro from Louisiana has evolved from the once eager slugger to a more mature fighter who likes to dictate brawls rather than enter them. In fact, Poirier has made significant upgrades to his game since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Demonstrating an excellent awareness of distance and footwork, the slugging southpaw will shift his stance for setups (often doubling up on strikes from the same side) as he adjusts his angles accordingly with fight-ending shots in mind.
Utilizing this style of shifting to create attack opportunities, Poirier has shown to sit down more on his punches, giving five fighters their first stoppage losses since returning to 155 pounds. The 35-year-old also displays improvements to his prodding, pulling and returning, but will likely need to mind the kicking propensities of his opponent.
Fighting out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has shown to be much more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins may have been able to audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a perfectly placed check hook at UFC 192, but the Dagestani fighter has been steadily making improvements to his striking since his lone setback.
Now, it is not uncommon to see Makhachev play at a much safer range when looking to set up his shots and strikes. Whether Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking attacks, the 32-year-old does a solid job of constantly changing his level and variating his shot selection.
Makhachev’s patented check right hook is still a key player in regards to countering presence that’s worth watching out for in this fight, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him press more of his clinch striking in this matchup.
Favoring single and double collar-tie variations in the clinch, Makhachev does a good job of utilizing well-placed knees to manipulate defenses and create openings. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Makhachev prioritize grappling change-ups given that Makhachev has shown little interest in striking when facing fellow southpaws.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier breakdown: Protect your neck
Feb 12, 2023; Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA; Islam Makhachev (red gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovski (blue gloves) during UFC 284 at RAC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports
Given the path of least resistance (at least on paper), no one should be shocked if Makhachev elects to wrestle Poirier early and often.
Akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev also scores a large part of his takedowns off of chaining attacks in clinch space.
Whether Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg position or hitting slick trips and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan displays solid adaptability in the wrestling realm. Nevertheless, Makhachev is not beyond hitting reactive shots in the open – something that Poirier will need to be aware of.
However, Poirier – despite his history with certain wrestlers – isn’t exactly a slouch in the wrestling department.
Under the care of American Top Team, we have seen Poirier steadily improve his wrestling skills over the years. “The Diamond” shows competent level-changing abilities in the open but arguably does his best takedown work when he is able to corral his opponents against the cage.
Defensively, Poirier has quietly sharpened up his sprawls while maintaining an impressive ability to scramble in the heat of battle. Even though Poirier still selects escapes that come with their fair share of exposure, the Thug-jitsu disciple thrives in reversal scenarios.
An excellent transitional grappler, Poirier can make hay from many positions and is not afraid to hold from topside while pouring on the punishment. Still, whether he is baiting submissions to pass or using an underhook to dictate position, Poirier will need to be on his best behavior and avoid sacrificing position with something silly like a guillotine choke opposite Makhachev.
I know it’s the big joke that everyone is leaning into this week, but unneeded scrambles could lead the the dominant positions that a grappler like Makhachev can use to close the show.
Aside from having tremendous hip and grip awareness, Makhachev is one of my favorite fighters to point to in regard to demonstrating the importance of wrist control.
As I always say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a great example to look to in MMA
Post disruptions, wrist-feeds to trips, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
An unsung hero in regard to effective martial arts techniques, Makhachev’s quiet control of hands and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances while he furthers his own.
Makhachev also employs stellar legwork that goes beyond his standing clinch work, as it’s not uncommon to see the 14-year pro incorporate crab rides in conjunction with back attacks (as seen in his finish of Thiago Moises).
Against Thiago Moises, Islam Makhachev used wrist controls to land some solid ground strikes that forced his foe to turn and turtle as the themes of wrist control – in conjunction with a sweet crab ride – continued to eventually allow Makhachev to find his finish. #UFC284pic.twitter.com/seHjk8cEb9
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the current champion, listing Makhachev -620 and Poirier +400 via FanDuel.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier prediction, pick
Despite these odds feeling borderline disrespectful to a fighter of Poirier’s stature, I can’t say that I’m surprised to see the inflation on the Makhachev end.
Outside of a lot of gamblers feeling like they missed out on a great line in Makhachev’s last impromptu outing, the Dagestani fighter also possesses an insanely passionate fanbase who grow tumescent at the thought of his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov and everything he touches.
Still, I can’t blame anyone for taking a small stab on the Poirier side given the numbers attached to his name.
Aside from the fact that Poirier’s patent check right could replicate the success Adriano Martins had on paper, the Louisiana native also possesses some underrated knees and a left cross worth watching for in this fight.
However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Poirier seems to have back exposure hardwired into his scrambling sensibilities – which I suspect will be what ultimately costs him here.
Round 2 will be particularly potent for either fighter to finish in, but I’ll officially pick Makhachev to win by submission in Round 3.
Prediction: Makhachev inside the distance
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier start time, where to watch
Makhachev and Poirier are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 302 odds between Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier, with MMA picks and predictions.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
In a 5-round lightweight championship bout in the main event, Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Makhachev (25-1-0) | Poirier (30-8-0)
The champ Makhachev topped Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 to secure the strap, and the southpaw beat Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284 via unanimous decision, then ran it back against Volkanovski at UFC 294 with a resounding Round 1 KO/TKO victory.
Makhachev has posted 13 consecutive victories since a 1st-round KO/TKO loss at UFC 192 against Adriano Martins. In those 13 wins, the champ has 5 wins via unanimous decision, with 3 wins by KO/TKO and 5 victories by way of submission.
For Poirier, he is 35 years old, and the sands of time are running out on his chance to be a champ again. The last time he held the strap was April 2019, when he took it from Max Holloway at UFC 236, then lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242 in Sept. 2019.
Oh, and Nurmagomedov is back in Makhachev’s corner for this title defense. The 2 fighters were reportedly childhood friends, as well as teammates, while Nurmagomedov is also considered a mentor. He hasn’t cornered for Makhachev since Oct. 2022 at UFC 280, a submission win over Oliveira.
Poirier holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Makhachev, and he has an overwhelming 5.46-to-2.46 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Makhachev is way more accurate on those strikes, however, landing at a 72.44% rate, to just 55.15% for Poirier.
Makhachev has managed a 3.17-to-1.33 takedown average advantage, too, while posting a 60.78% takedown accuracy percentage.
POIRIER (+400) is worth a roll of the dice for the opportunity to potentially multiply your initial wager by more than 4 times.
The Louisiana native faces long odds, but seeing his nemesis Nurmagomedov in the corner of his opponent could fuel Poirier’s fire. It’s now or never for Poirier, as a loss here likely means the 35-year-old won’t have a chance at a title again in his career.
Makhachev hasn’t lost since 2015, so it obviously isn’t going to be easy. But backing Poirier is the way to go.
No matter the winner, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is the play. We’re not going to have a quick Makhachev fight like we’re accustomed to seeing. He has not made it Round 2 in 3 of his previous 5 bouts.
However, Poirier is a veteran who knows how to last. He has made it past the halfway point of Round 2 in 3 of his past 4 fights.
You can’t play No (-650): Will the fight go the distance?, costing you 6½ times your potential return.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
Two middleweight title hopefuls in Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa look to rebound from losses. Who wins at UFC 302?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 302 co-main event between former middleweight champion [autotag]Sean Strickland[/autotag] and [autotag]Paulo Costa[/autotag].
Sean Strickland UFC 302 preview
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 08: Sean Strickland of United States poses during the ceremonial weigh in for UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena on September 08, 2023 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ King of the Cage middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ 22-3 in the middleweight division
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Long and accurate jab
^ Coming forward or off the backfoot
+ Solid inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ From top or bottom
Supplemental info:
+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Fight middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Imposing pressure
^ Feints, stalks, corrals
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Variates rhythm, looks and levels
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Shows wrestling fundamentals
+ Works well from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa point of interest: Middleweight mashup
Sep 9, 2023; Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA; Israel Adesanya (red gloves) fights Sean Strickland (blue gloves) during UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports
The co-main event for UFC 302 features a pairing of middleweights who aren’t afraid to get messy on their feet.
Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.
When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to better target fleeing foes. Opposite opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize said shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.
Still, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not beyond being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.
However, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has done a much better job of controlling the cage, which, in turn, helped him turn in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.
Nevertheless, Strickland will still need to respect what [autotag]Paulo Costa[/autotag] is throwing back at him.
An imposing competitor by nature, Costa traditionally likes to pressure his prey toward the fence.
Whether Costa is baiting opponents with feints into crushing hooks and body kicks, or crashing the distance to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian seems to be genuinely comfortable inside of exchanges.
Even when caught clean, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s shots as he returns fire right back in their face, but with an adjusted and varied rhythm. For me, it is an impressive feat to see a young fighter who otherwise seems like a bully using subtle tactics like rhythm and level changes to avoid predictability with strikes.
Costa’s shot selection is also useful when it comes to corralling his opposition in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines – a place where his power comes to life. That said, Costa did display some solid jabbing tactics in his last outing opposite Robert Whittaker, as well as a deceptively accurate spin kick that could give Strickland flashbacks to his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos down at welterweight.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Aug 20, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Paulo Costa (red gloves) fights Luke Rockhold (blue gloves) during UFC 278 at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Considering that “Borrachinha” initially came from a base in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, I will be curious to see if he looks to surprise the former champion by revisiting his roots.
During his brief stint on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3,” we saw a very green version of Costa using cage pressure and takedowns to seal the deal on fighters before running out of gas and losing a split-decision (exhibition bout) to Marcio Alexandre on the show. Although the latest iteration of Costa has moved heavily toward the striking realm, I have to imagine that the Mineiro champion of jiu-jitsu’s ground game is still firmly intact.
When competing under the Jungle Fight banner, Costa demonstrated an ability to transition and ride while striking, appearing to maintain a good sense of positional IQ and awareness. But if the Brazilian does intend on taking Strickland down, then Costa will need to come correct with his setups and executions.
Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win; but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful shuck-by’s from the body lock position that allows him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident a few years back).
Although we haven’t had to see much shot defense from Strickland since his return to the middleweight division, the 33-year-old American always has done a decent job of either separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright.
Strickland also appears fairly flexible in scrambles, showing a solid sense of hip awareness and leg dexterity to boot.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Stickland -265 and Costa +200 via FanDuel.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa prediction, pick
Despite this line starting to get a bit wide for my liking, I don’t disagree with Strickland being favored from a betting perspective.
The outspoken American is undeniably a wildcard outside of the octagon, but inside Strickland is one of the more consistent fighters that this division has to offer. Whereas Costa, who is a character inside and out of the cage, can be much harder to predict.
Stylistically, the fighter who is moving forward should have an inherent advantage in exchanges.
Both men aren’t shy about coming forward, but I’d argue that Strickland is the more flexible fighter in regards to operating off the backfoot when he needs to. Add in the fact that straight shots from either stance seem to be Costa’s common culprit, and I can’t help but side with Strickland in this spot.
Unless Costa can emphatically bring to light Strickland’s left-sided strike susceptibilities with a hook or a spin kick, then I suspect that the former champion can pull away from his Brazilian foe down the stretch for a competitive win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Strickland by decision
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa start time, where to watch
Strickland and Costa are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.
