The 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones (21-12) face the 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers (25-7) Sunday in a Midwest Region second-round matchup. Tip-off at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Iowa State vs. Villanova odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Iowa State upset the 6-seed LSU Tigers 59-54 Friday as 3-point underdogs to advance to the Round of 32. Cyclones freshman PG Tyrese Hunter, and Big XII Rookie of the Year, scored a game-high 23 points on 61.5% shooting (7-for-11 from behind the arc) and added 5 steals versus LSU.
Wisconsin defeated the 14-seed Colgate Raiders 67-60 in the first round but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. The Badgers outperformed the Raiders in three of the “four factors” and held Colgate to just 38.6% shooting.
See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa State +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Wisconsin -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +4.5 (-120) | Wisconsin -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 126.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
[tipico]
Iowa State vs. Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Wisconsin 63, Iowa State 61
Money line
PASS because I have the Badgers advancing to the Sweet 16 but Wisconsin (-190) is way too expensive.
When handicapping Iowa State’s first-round upset of LSU, I mentioned the Cyclones were trying to become the fifth team in NCAA Tournament history to be four games below-.500 in conference play and win its opening-round contest.
The previous four times this happened, the team with the below-.500 conference record to pull off the upset, lost in the second round.
It’s going to be a tight one and perhaps if Iowa State’s ML goes north of +175, I’ll take a stab at it. But, for now, PASS.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Against the spread
BET IOWA STATE +4.5 (-120) because it has the experience and defensive tenacity to keep this game close with Wisconsin -4.5 (-110).
The Cyclones are eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and the college basketball guru only gives the Badgers a 1-point edge in this matchup. Wisconsin is 295th in 3-point percentage and Iowa State is 16th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage.
Furthermore, Iowa State senior SG Izaiah Brockington was first-team All-Big XII and can trade baskets with Wisconsin’s G Jonathan Davis. In fact, Brockington outshoots Davis from the field and behind the arc and they are tied with a 104.3 offensive rating, per KenPom.
Iowa State also played in a better conference, had a much tougher non-conference schedule and performed well in those games. Both had nine Quad 1 victories but Iowa State is 10-4 ATS in non-conference games with a plus-7.4 ATS margin and Wisconsin is 6-5 ATS with a plus-0.4 ATS margin.
Wisconsin has been steamed up from a 3-point opening favorite to the current number per Pregame.com, and that’s just too much line movement between two evenly matched teams.
BET IOWA STATE +4.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 126.5 (-115) because this is a sharp total but Iowa State-Wisconsin could turn into a rock-fight.
Both teams are more efficient on defense than offense, each shoots a low 3-point percentage and plays at a snail’s pace.
A majority of the market is also betting the Over but this total hasn’t budged off the opener per Pregame.com.
Typically a line freeze in the betting market is suspicious because sportsbooks tend to move lines according to their exposure.
However, at the moment, oddsmakers are willing to accept more pro-Over money. As a bettor, you never want to play into the House’s hand.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]