March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Friday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

Thursday’s Sweet 16 action brought upsets of No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and Arizona. So, who’s next?

After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Friday’s games include a blowout favorite (No. 3 seed Purdue by 12.5 points over No. 15 seed St. Peter’s ), a touchdown favorite (No. 1 seed Kansas by 7.5 over fourth-seeded Providence), and two one-possession lines (No. 4 seed UCLA by 2.5 over No. 8 seed North Carolina, and 10th-seeded Miami by 2.5 over No. 11 seed Iowa State ). That final game of the night is the most intriguing, and the mercurial Cyclones make for a solid straight-up upset play.

See alsoFerris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at x:xx a.m. ET.

Iowa State +2.5 (-107) vs. Miami – 8:59 p.m. ET

ISU went 7-11 in a strong Big 12 field during the regular season. The Cyclones were then bounced by current-No. 11 Texas Tech in their league-tourney opener. After a week off, Iowa State returned to action with an 59-54 upset win over analytics darling LSU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament (March 18). The Cyclones then defeated No. 3 seed Wisconsin 54-49 in another low-scoring tussle to advance to this Midwest Region semifinal in Chicago.

Iowa State is certainly no offensive juggernaut. The Cyclones shot 34% over its three postseason games, but they play an elite-level, ballhawking defense. While, Miami does take care of the basketball, it figures to be challenged by this veteran ISU defense, which is adept at creating turnovers. Against very good competition, Iowa State has forced over 15 turnovers per game over its last five.

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If ISU can get some turnover-transition buckets and haul down a fair number of offensive rebounds (against a down-trending-on-the-boards Hurricane five), the Cyclones could very well be in front down the stretch. On offense, Iowa State is solid around the rim, and that’s a point of differential in this matchup. UM’s interior defense is nothing special.

The 2021-22 Cyclones have been a team of winning and losing streaks. IOWA STATE IS A SOLID PLAY ATS (+2.5, -107) and on the MONEY LINE (ISU +125).

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March Madness: Iowa State vs. Miami odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Iowa State vs. Miami odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) play the 10-seed Miami Hurricanes (25-10) Friday in the Sweet 16 of the East Region. Tip-off at the United Center in Chicago is scheduled for 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Iowa State vs. Miami odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Both teams are Cinderellastories with Iowa State upsetting the 6-seed LSU Tigers 59-54 in the opening round then beating the 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers 54-49 in the second round. The Cyclones are 13-6 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs and 4-1 ATS in neutral-site games.

Miami beat the 7-seed USC Trojans in a first-round 68-66 nail-biter before hammering the 2-seed Auburn Tigers 79-61 in the Round of 32. The Hurricanes are 8-13 ATS as favorites and 4-4 ATS in neutral-site games.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Iowa State vs. Miami odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Iowa State +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Miami -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +2.5 (-110) | Miami -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Iowa State vs. Miami odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Iowa State 66, Miami 62

Money line

SPRINKLE on IOWA STATE (+120)  only because the Cyclones plus the points is the much sharper wager and their defense should give Miami (-145) fits.

Iowa State has the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency out of the 16 remaining NCAA Tournament teams, according to KenPom. Defense is more reliable than offense as teams have off-shooting nights all the time. But, I’d expect a top-ranked defense to be locked in for an elimination game.

Furthermore, Miami’s defense cannot stop a nosebleed and struggle to close out defensive possessions. The Hurricanes are 298th in defensive effective field goal shooting and 265th in defensive rebounding rate.

Essentially, I have more faith that Iowa State’s weak offense can find success against Miami’s terrible defense. However, I cannot say the same about Miami’s offense versus Iowa State’s defense.

Finally, Iowa State played a tougher conference schedule, had five more Quad 1 wins than Miami this season and college basketball guru Ken Pomeroy actually makes the Cyclones a 1-point favorite in his Iowa State-Miami game preview.

Again, I much prefer the Cyclones plus the points, but there’s value on IOWA STATE (+120).

Also seeBet Slippin Podcast‘s March Madness 2022: Sweet 16 betting primer

Against the spread

BET IOWA STATE +2.5 (-110)  instead of or heavier than its ML because the Cyclones’ defense matches up well with Miami’s guard-heavy lineup and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Iowa State.

According to Tipico, we have a Pros versus Joe’s scenario in the betting market as more than 70% of the bets placed are on Miami -2.5 (-110) but a slight majority of the cash is on IOWA STATE +2.5 (-110).

Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s opposite the public. Furthermore, Iowa State is the least bet team in all of the eight Sweet 16 games and, generally, that’s where you find value in sports betting.

IOWA STATE PLUS THE POINTS  is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 133.5 (-115)  because Iowa State’s defense is elite and the Cyclones are 1-7 O/U in their last eight games versus teams with a 60.0% or better winning percentage.

However, we’d be getting late to the party on the Under since the total opened at 136.5 and all the pro-Under money has caused oddsmakers to lower the total down to the current number.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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