The No. 2 seed Iowa Hawkeyes (22-8) take on the No. 7 seed Oregon Ducks (21-6) Monday in a West Region second-round battle at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Iowa-Oregon odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
The Hawkeyes marched on past Grand Canyon in the first round, winning 86-74 while the underdog Antelopes covered the 13.5-point number. The Over (144) wasn’t a problem, as it cashed rather comfortably. Player of the Year candidate F Luka Garza was everything as advertised, going for 24 points and 6 rebounds while making 4 of his 5 3-pointer attempts in 33 minutes. Iowa enters this game on an 0-3-1 slide against the spread.
The Ducks advanced to the second round after Virginia Commonwealth was unable to participate in Round 1 due to COVID-19 protocols. Oregon was favored over VCU, and I think this team was seeded much lower than they should have been. Yes, the Ducks lost to rival Oregon State in the Pac-12 semifinals, but they are 6-1 straight up across their past seven games, and 5-1 ATS over their previous six outings. The Over is also on a 7-0 run for the Ducks.
Iowa vs. Oregon: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Oregon +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Iowa -5 (-110) | Oregon +5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 147 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Iowa vs. Oregon: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Oregon 82, Iowa 80
Money line (ML)
OREGON (+180) is rested after what was essentially a first-round bye, and it has had plenty of time to right the ship after getting bumped by Oregon State in the Pac-12 tourney.
Ducks G Joe Weiskamp is quite an effective player in the backcourt but still, Iowa can be stopped if Garza can be stopped. The Hawkeyes defense is a little worrisome, as they allowed 72.1 points per game to rank just 228th in the nation, and they had awful perimeter defense (263rd in the country) with the opposition shooting 34.9% against them.
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Against the spread (ATS)
OREGON +5 (-110) is a good play catching more than two buckets. Iowa didn’t cover in the first round, and it is just 1-3-1 ATS across its past five games as a favorite. The Hawkeyes are also just 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 NCAA Tournament games.
The Ducks covered the spread in each of their past four games as an underdog in a neutral-site game, and they’re 5-0-1 ATS across their past six in the Big Dance. More recently, they’re 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 147 (-110) is worth slamming hard. Bettors are crushing books hitting the Over in Oregon games, going a perfect 7-0 in their past seven outings. The Over is also 8-1-2 in the past 11 neutral-site games for UO.
While the Under has trended lately for Iowa, the Hawkeyes hoisted up 85.0 PPG in the regular season to rank fourth in the nation, they’re the third-best 3-point shooting team in the country at 39.6% and the Over is 6-0 in Iowa’s past six NCAA Tournament contests.
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