The No. 12 Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0) visit in-state rival No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones (1-0) Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium in the return of the annual Cy-Hawk game. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Iowa vs. Iowa State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Iowa steamrolled Big Ten-rival Indiana 34-6 as 3.5-point home favorites in Week 1. The Hawkeyes held the Hoosiers to 77 rushing yards on 31 carries, 156 passing yards on a 42.4% completion rate and forced 3 turnovers.
Iowa State squeaked past Northern Iowa with an uninspiring 16-10 victory as 28.5-point road favorites. The Cyclones showed up defensively and allowed just 45 rushing yards on 26 carries and added 2 interceptions. However, Iowa State struggled on third down efficiency on the offensive side and converted just five of 14 attempts.
The 2020 Cy-Hawk game was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic but Iowa has won five straight meetings, and six of the last seven games, against Iowa State.
Iowa at Iowa State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:42 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Iowa State -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa +3.5 (-105) | Iowa State -3.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Iowa at Iowa State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 27, Iowa 20
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to Iowa State (-205) because I am tinkering with the idea of throwing it into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout since I’m comfortable laying it with the Cyclones.
Against the spread
Most of the college football/sports betting podcasts that I listen to were blown away with how easily Iowa destroyed an Indiana team that had a breakout season in 2020. Likewise, most of the college football community was rightfully disappointed with Iowa State’s Week 1 performance.
This correlates with the betting splits that show Iowa +3.5 (-105) getting nearly 60% of the cash and almost 75% of the bets wagered on it, according to Pregame.com.
The oddsmakers aren’t overreacting by Iowa State’s opening game stinker and Iowa’s impressive Week 1 outing so neither should we. Iowa State ranks fourth in ESPN college football guru Bill Connelly’s 2021 returning production table and almost beat the mighty Oklahoma Sooners twice last year.
Furthermore, Iowa State has covered two of the past three Cy-Hawk games and NFL front offices have been trying to poach Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell from college football for a few offseasons now. Rumor has it Campbell turned down a head coaching offer for generational wealth to return to Iowa State and make a run at the College Football Playoff.
Campell will get the Cyclones back on track and slaughter the trendy underdog Iowa has become. GIMME IOWA STATE -3.5 (-120) for 1.25 units.
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Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 46.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Iowa State side, we are getting “Reverse Line Movement” here with total getting moved up despite a ton of pro-Under money and it does feel a little too obvious.
The Under is 4-1-1 in the last six Cy-Hawk games, Iowa State has played the Under in six consecutive contests dating back to last season and Iowa has gone Under the total in three of its last four games.
Both defenses are nasty and the offensive line is each team’s best unit on the other side of the ball so we should see an epic battle in the trenches.
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