The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Phoenix Raceway for the Instacart 500 Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Instacart 500 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
2021 Instacart 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 a.m. ET.
Penske Racing’s Joey Logano won the FanShield 500 in Phoenix last March, giving Ford its first win at the track since the spring 2018 race. It also snapped a three-race manufacturer monopoly by Toyota.
- Kyle Busch has won two of the past five NASCAR Cup Series races at Phoenix, including the spring 2019 race when starting from the fourth position. Before last fall’s 11th-place finish, Busch had been seventh or better in the previous 10 Phoenix starts, and third or better in seven of the past eight.
- Penske’s Brad Keselowski is on the pole for Sunday’s race. The pole sitter hasn’t won in Phoenix in 11 races since Kevin Harvick took checkers in the CampingWorld.com 500 in the spring 2015 race.
- Speaking of Harvick, he leads all drivers with nine victories and 18 top-5 finishes in his 36 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Phoenix while posting a stellar 8.92 Average-Finish Position (AFP). He also leads the way with 1,662 laps led.
- Cole Custer, who appeared on the Netflix show “The Crew” with Penske’s Ryan Blaney, made his NASCAR Cup Series debut last season at Phoenix and brought it home ninth.
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Who is going to win the 2021 Instacart 500?
HARVICK (+600) isn’t the favorite, but he probably should be. As mentioned above, he leads all drivers with nine checkered flags in Phoenix. Over his past 10 starts at the track he has an AFP of 4.0, second only behind Busch (2.9).
Harvick was second in last season’s spring race at Phoenix, and he has been sixth or better in 15 of his past 18 starts at the track. Happy has also finished 10th or better in 25 of his 36 career Cup starts in Avondale.
KYLE BUSCH (+800) has also been dominant, celebrating in Victory Lane three times in 31 Cup Series starts with 12 top-5 finishes, 22 top-10 runs and 1,190 laps led. He also has a 10.5 AFP, which is second among active drivers only to Harvick.
Hendrick Motorsports driver CHASE ELLIOTT (+500) is the chalk. He has one win (last season’s finale) and three top-5 finishes in 10 Cup starts at the track with an 11.8 AFP.
If you’re looking for a little more value, keep an eye on Penske’s RYAN BLANEY (+1400). He had back-to-back third-place Phoenix finishes in 2019. He has led 109 laps in his 10 career Cup starts with five of his runs results in finishes of 10th or better.
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2021 Instacart 500 long-shot bet
ARIC ALMIROLA (+3500) isn’t a true long-shot bet, but he also isn’t among the favorites, either.
The “Cuban Missile” has registered top-10 finishes in five of his past seven Phoenix Cup starts while turning in an impressive 14.8 AFP in 20 career starts at the track. He has never finished lower than 27th, and he has 33 laps led. His AFP is ninth-best among drivers with at least seven starts.
Also, don’t sleep on RYAN NEWMAN (+10000). He is one of just five active drivers with multiple checkered flags at this track, and he won as recently as the spring 2017 race here. In 36 career Phoenix starts, he has two wins, 10 top-5 runs, 12 top-10 showings, 242 laps led and a stellar 16.9 AFP.
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