Indians Yankees odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Cleveland Indians (71-74) and New York Yankees (83-65) continue their three-game series Saturday at Yankee Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York pelted Cleveland 8-0 in the series opener as Yankees LF Joey Gallo homered twice, and RHP Corey Kluber pitched six scoreless innings.

Season series: Yankees lead 4-1.

RHP Aaron Civale is Cleveland’s projected starter. Civale is 10-3 with a 3.76 ERA (105 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 17 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 11-1, with 3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Civale got a no-decision April 22 in Cleveland’s 6-3 home loss to New York with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
vs. Yankees on the current roster: 3.32 FIP with a .306 batting average, .344 wOBA, .334 expected slugging percentage, 17.1 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity in 41 plate appearances.

RHP Luis Gil makes his sixth MLB start for the Yankees. Gil is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in his rookie season.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 8 K in New York’s 6-5 win over the Minnesota Twins Monday.

Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-135) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Yankees 5, Indians 2

Money line (ML)

PASS despite giving New York the edge in this spot because the Yankees (-190) is too expensive considering they have just a 56.5% winning rate as a home favorite (39-30 overall), but the implied win probability of New York’s money line is 65.5%. Essentially, the math doesn’t back up laying it with the Yankees (-190).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager only because there has been “sharp line movement” in the Indians’ direction. This game opened with Cleveland’s consensus run line being priced at roughly -112 but has been bet up.

However, nine of the Indians’ previous 10 losses have been by at least three runs, which makes sense when you look at how their bullpen is performing.

In September, Cleveland’s relief pitching has the third-worst WAR, second-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst hard-hit rate.

I’m willing to sprinkle on New York’s money line in hopes of its lineup full of mashers can go yard a couple of times against Cleveland’s bullpen to put this game out of reach.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 9.5 (-120) for 1 unit because both lineups have really struggled this month and New York is 27-39-3 O/U as a home favorite.

For instance, Cleveland’s lineup ranks dead-last this month in wRC+, WAR and wOBA while the Yankees batters are in the bottom-10 in each of those metrics this month as well.

Furthermore, we have some “reverse line movement” in the Under’s direction. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on the Over, but the Under is the more expensive side. That suggests oddsmakers are enticing more action on the Over, and you don’t want to play into the House’s hand.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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The New York Yankees (82-65) host the Cleveland Indians (71-73) on Friday for the start of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York had its three-game winning streak snapped against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday in their series finale. Meanwhile, Cleveland won two of three in its series against the Minnesota Twins but have won only three of its last 10 games.

Season series: Yankees lead 3-1.

RHP Zach Plesac is Cleveland’s projected starter. Plesac is 10-5 with a 4.45 ERA (125 1/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 22 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Saturday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
2021 road splits: 7-3 with a 4.74 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB in 11 starts.

RHP Corey Kluber is set for his 14th start for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA (65 IP, 29 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No decision with 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K in 8-7 victory at the New York Mets on Saturday.
2021 home splits: 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA (29 IP, 9 ER), 1.31 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in six starts.

Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Friday at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Indians +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Yankees 4, Indians 3

Money line (ML)

PASS even though New York should win. The Yankees (-200) is far too expensive considering how inconsistent, at best, their hitting has been.

New York split its previous two games with Baltimore but they only scored four and two runs in those contests. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games and 7-13 in the last 20. Does that sound like a team you should lay -200 with?

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

LEAN to the INDIANS +1.5 (-130) because they are 31-17 ATS as a road underdog while the Yankees are 26-42 as a home favorite.

Just listing these records lacks context, obviously, but essentially New York’s hitting and relief pitching just aren’t reliable. The Yankees have the seventh-most blown saves in the majors and we’ve seen teams continuously sneak in the backdoor or steal a game late against New York.

The reasons for the lean are Plesac’s rough advanced pitching numbers against active Yankees batters, and he gave up 20 home runs in his first 19 starts.

Over/Under (O/U)

LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) only because we are getting to the party late since the Indians-Yankees opened with a 10-run total but has been moved down thanks to the wiseguys.

This is a “pros vs. joes” game: Nearly 90% of the cash is on the Under while 53% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s opposite of the public.

The logic behind this being a lower-scoring game is New York’s hitting hiccups and Kluber being dialed in to face his former team. This start has to mean something to Kluber after he played for Cleveland from 2011-19, won two Cy Young Awards and an AL pennant with the Indians in 2016.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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