Tag: Indians Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (67-66) and Boston Red Sox (79-59) play the finale of a three-game series Sunday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians at Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Indians RHP Zach Plesac (9-4, 4.49 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 114 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed no runs and just 2 hits and no walks against 7 strikeouts across 7 IP in a win against the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.
  • Has won three straight decisions across his last four starts, and he hasn’t lost since Aug. 3, a span of five outings.

Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (9-7, 4.67 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 through 135 IP.

  • Was pounded for 4 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks with 6 strikeouts across just 5 IP Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • Has a 4-2 record, 5.60 ERA and .845 opponent OPS across 64 1/3 IP spanning 13 home starts.

Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-165) | Red Sox -1.5 (bet +133)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Indians 4, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

The INDIANS (+122) are a solid play in the series finale, as Plesac has been pitching well lately, and Pivetta hasn’t fared nearly as well for the Red Sox.

Boston outscored Cleveland 12-8 in the first two games of this series, including a 4-3 win Saturday; however, look for the Indians to salvage something out of the series.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The INDIANS +1.5 (-165) aren’t as good of a value as they are straight up, obviously, but if you’re not feeling Cleveland to win in an upset and want some insurance, have at it.

The Indians covered the run line in Saturday’s affair, even though they lost. So, it’s not a terrible play.

Over/Under (O/U)

Playing UNDER 9.5 (-112) is the way to go. While Pivetta has been a little shaky lately, the Under is still 6-1 across his last seven outings, and 8-2 across the past 10 starts for the right-hander.

While the Over is an eye-popping 6-0-2 across Plesac’s past eight starts, it’s mostly due to the offense, and not his fault. He allowed 2 or fewer runs in three of his last four outings.

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Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (67-65) meet the Boston Red Sox (78-59) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston beat Cleveland in the season opener Friday 8-5 and keyed the victory with a 5-run 7th-inning rally.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1.

RHP Eli Morgan gets the nod for the Indians. Morgan is 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 across 13 starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Cleveland’s 7-5 victory over Boston Sunday.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA (27 IP, 12 ER), 0.96 WHIP and 9.3 K/BB in five starts.

RHP Tanner Houck is on the mound for the Red Sox. Houck is 0-3 with a 3.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in nine starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 7-5 loss to Cleveland Sunday.
  • 2021 home splits: 0-3 with a 3.77 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.29 WHIP and 8.2 K/BB in six starts and one bullpen outing.

Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:08 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Red Sox -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-117) | Red Sox -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Indians 5, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Indians (+170) because I’m going to throw a little change at Cleveland’s run line.

Morgan has been more effective on the road than at home this season and the Indians beat the Red Sox last week in this same starting pitcher’s duel.

Cleveland’s lineup has been raking over the past two weeks; the Indians have ranked third in wRC+, fourth in WAR and second in wOBA over that span.

Maybe I’ll sprinkle on Indians (+170) before the first pitch but, for now, I’ll stick with Cleveland’s run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the INDIANS +1.5 (-117) for 1 unit since their lineup has been hitting better than Boston’s recently, the pitching matchup is a toss-up and Cleveland is 27-16 ATS as a road underdog while the Red Sox are 26-29 ATS as a home favorite.

Furthermore, there’s notable “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 95% of the cash is on Boston covering but Cleveland’s run line has gone from a -109 consensus number to the current price according to Pregame.com.

It’s a red flag that oddsmakers have reacted to the one-sided pro-Boston action by making the Indians more expensive. It should work the opposite way.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET to the UNDER 9.5 (-122) for 1 unit because there’s also been slight RLM on the total that opened at a flat-10, but has been steamed down despite roughly 70% of the action being on the Over.

My play on the Under is strictly a “contrarian play” against an Over that seems square. Once diving into this handicap, I noticed that both starting pitchers wouldn’t be starting for their ball clubs in September if it weren’t for injuries, both bullpens have struggled after the All-Star Game and each lineup is hitting very well lately. Seems like a sure-fire Over, right?

When I factor in the noticeable RLM to all those Over-friendly angles, I notice that the House is trying to entice more Over money. Let’s get on the same side as the house and BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (67-64) and Boston Red Sox (77-59) open a three-game set Friday. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Indians RHP Cal Quantrill (4-2, 2.93 ERA) makes his 18th start and 36th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 116 2/3 IP.

  • Is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP as a starter.
  • Allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts through 7 IP in a no-decision start Saturday against Boston.
  • Is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over 55 IP across nine starts in the second half of the season. He allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing just once in that span.

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.71 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 150 1/3 IP.

  • Opposed Quantrill Saturday and allowed 2 earned runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts over 5 1/3 IP to take a no-decision in Cleveland.
  • Has a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 across 15 starts at Fenway Park.

Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Red Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-135) | Red Sox -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Boston 4, Cleveland 3

Money line (ML)

The Red Sox are one of the league’s premier hitting teams against right-handed pitching. Boston ranks no worse than seventh in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against righties while Cleveland ranks no better than 19th in any of those categories.

Eovaldi has been lights out at Fenway Park. He has recorded a 0.99 ERA and 0.74 WHIP while tossing at least 7 innings in each of his last five starts at home.

This line is starting to gt up there. If it surpasses -200 the play is probably to just use it in a parlay but for the time being you can BET the RED SOX (-190).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Quantrill allowed more than 2 earned runs just once over his last nine outings, although he’s likely producing numbers a bit over his head as his Statcast expected ERA and his xFIP are more than a full run higher than his surface ERA.

Boston’s bullpen has been absolutely ravaged over the last 30 days and is 20th or worse in SEIRA, xFIP, ERA and K-BB% over that span. Cleveland’s ‘pen isn’t a great deal better – in fact in some instances ranking worse – but I’m just not eager to get behind those metrics and risk seeing things slip away late in the game.

PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

I anticipated this number would be lower than it was posted at and instead we’re actually seeing it a little higher in some places.

You can try to wait out a rise to 9 if that’s more your style, but factoring Eovaldi’s success at home (which will hopefully limit bullpen exposure) and a number of members of Boston’s starting lineup sidelined due to COVID-19 related issues I’m “leaning” toward the Under.

Here’s to hoping Quantrill continues to pitch beyond his means Friday. Play the UNDER 8.5 (+105).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @unanswerepoint on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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