Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks odds predictions pick betting line

The Indiana Pacers (14-23) travel to the Big Apple Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the New York Knicks (17-20) at Madison Square Garden. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Knicks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana has lost four straight with the most recent being a 108-104 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday, pushing as a 4-point road underdog.

The Pacers are 1-5 straight-up (SU), 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the past two weeks with the 24th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-5.5 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

New York has lost back-to-back road games at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-80 on New Year’s Eve and at the Toronto Raptors 120-105 Sunday.

The Knicks are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the 12th-best adjusted net rating at plus-1.8 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

These teams split the first two meetings of the season with the home team winning and covering both.

Pacers at Knicks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Knicks -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +1.5 (-112) | Knicks -1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Pacers at Knicks key injuries

Pacers

SG Jeremy Lamb (health and safety protocols) out
PG Caris LeVert (health and safety protocols) out
PG Malcolm Brogdon (health and safety protocols) out
SG Chris Duarte (health and safety protocols) out
SF Kelan Martin (health and safety protocols) out
C Goga Bitadze (health and safety protocols) out

Knicks

C Mitchell Robinson (reconditioning) questionable
PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out
PF Julius Randle (health and safety protocols) out
C Nerlens Noel (health and safety protocols) out
PG Kemba Walker (knee) out

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Pacers at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 105, Pacers 101

Money line

BET the KNICKS (-117) because Indiana’s absences loom larger than New York’s. The Pacers are missing three of their top-four players in terms of adjusted on/off net rating in LeVert, Lamb and Brogdon (CTG).

While the absence of Randle definitely lowers New York’s ceiling in the long term, Randle hasn’t made a big difference thus far.

Randle ranks in the first percentile of adjusted on/off net rating for forwards at minus-19.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG) and his replacement in the starting 5 — PF Obi Toppin — grades in the 97th percentile in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-16.9 points per 100 possessions (CTG).

Furthermore, Kemba’s and DRose’s injuries have led to the emergence of rookie Knicks PG Miles McBride and the increased usage of Knicks SG Alec Burks.

McBride has only clocked 111 minutes of action but he grades in the 99th percentile of point guards in on/off net rating at plus-26.5 points per 100 possessions and Burks grades in the 79th percentile of wings in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-6.0 points per 100 possessions (CTG).

Indiana has also been awful on the road this season. The Pacers are 3-14 SU and 7-10 ATS on the road with the 21st-ranked adjusted net rating and 26th-ranked spread differential (CTG).

BET the KNICKS (-117).

Against the spread

PASS since New York’s money line is only 9 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Knicks -1.5 (-108). There’s no point in fussing with the spread when the money line is this cheap comparatively.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 206.5 (-112) for a half-unit because most of the trends suggest this will be a low-scoring game and both teams play at a bottom seven pace.

Indiana has gone Under the total in eight of its past nine as a road underdog and New York has gone Under the total in its last four games as a favorite and four of the past five games overall. Both teams are also missing key ball handlers that help each side get into their offensive sets.

My hesitation with the UNDER 206.5 (-112) is that it feels too easy.

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The Indiana Pacers (6-8) are in the “Big Apple” Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the New York Knicks (7-6) at Madison Square Garden. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Knicks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Indiana has won three of its past four games including back-to-back victories at the Utah Jazz Thursday and against the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday. The Pacers are 8-6 ATS and 5-9 O/U and are tied with the 14th-ranked net rating (plus-0.2).

New York has lost three of four including the past two against the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday and at the Charlotte Hornets Friday. The Knicks are 6-7 ATS and 6-7 O/U and also are tied with the 14th-ranked net rating (plus-0.2).

The Pacers crushed the Knicks 111-98 as 1-point home favorites earlier this year (Nov. 3).

The Knicks beat the Pacers 2-1 (overall and ATS) in their regular-season series last year. The Under went 2-1 in those three contests.

Pacers at Knicks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Knicks -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +3.5 (-107) | Knicks -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pacers at Knicks key injuries

Pacers

SG Chris Duarte (ankle) questionable
SF T.J. Warren (foot) out

Knicks

C Nerlens Noel (knee) questionable

Pacers at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 113, Pacers 108

Money line

“LEAN” to the KNICKS (-170) to bounce back in their second meeting of the season with the Pacers (+135) because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards New York. For instance, the Knicks opened as -135 money line favorite before the markets steamed them up to the current price.

Furthermore, the Knicks are a deeper team than the Pacers. New York’s bench averages the fourth-most points per game (PPG) and has the second-best plus/minus. While Indiana’s bench is 18th in plus/minus and averages the 21st-most PPG.

Also, in the first Pacers-Knicks meeting this season, New York had more points off of turnovers, second-chance points and paint points than Indiana.

However, Pacers big Myles Turner connected on 7-of-10 3-pointers and the Knicks shot just 20.8% from behind the arc as a team.

I expect Indiana’s 3-point shooting to regress a tad in this game and New York to have a better 3-point shooting night.

Against the spread

PASS since I’m paying -170 for New York’s money line to avoid having to lay it with the Knicks -3.5 (-115). On top of that, the Pacers are 4-1 ATS as a road underdog and the Knicks are 2-4 ATS as a home favorite.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 213.5 (-110) for a 1 unit as a “fade against the market”, which is betting the Under at a 90-plus-percent clip, according to Pregame.com.

The first Pacers-Knicks meeting went Under the total because of atrocious outside shooting by New York yet Monday’s meeting opened with a 217.5-point total. That tells me the oddsmakers were expecting a bounce-back shooting performance from the Knicks but the market has “recency bias”.

However, both offenses have a top-10 3-point shooting percentage and both defenses have a bottom-10 3-point shooting percentage.

Lastly, the bottom line is there’s been too much movement on this total considering the 3-point shooting head-to-head and the expectation these teams will play more halfcourt basketball.

The OVER 213.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this Pacers-Knicks game.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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