The Indiana Pacers (13-18) head to South Beach Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. game against the Miami Heat (18-13) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Indiana snapped a two-game losing skid Thursday by beating the Detroit Pistons 122-113 but failed to cover as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The Pacers are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U the last two weeks with the sixth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-5.4 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Miami had its two-game win streak snapped with a 100-90 loss at the Pistons as a 6.5-point favorite. The Heat is 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over the last 14 days with the seventh-ranked non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.9 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.
These teams are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their regular-season series heading into the rubber match and both sides of the total has cashed.
Pacers at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pacers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Heat +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacers -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Pacers at Heat key injuries
Pacers
- None.
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (quadriceps) questionable
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
- SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) out
- SG Caleb Martin (health and safety protocols) out
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Pacers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 108, Heat 97
Money line
TAKE the PACERS (-125) for 1 unit because they have a higher rebounding rate and better ball security. Indiana also led Miami in all “four factors” in their first meeting this season and in three of the “four factors” in the second.
The Heat are definitely without three of their starters and could be without Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Herro.
Butler has only played in one game this month and Miami is 22nd in non-garbage time net rating (minus-3.0 points per 100 possessions) in December (CTG). Compare that to Indiana who’s eighth in non-garbage time net rating this month (plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions).
The Pacers are not only playing better but are the more well-rested team. Indiana hasn’t played since Dec. 16 whereas Miami last played Sunday.
GIMME the PACERS (-125).
Against the spread
PASS on the Pacers -1.5 (-115) since Indiana’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive. For what it’s worth, the Pacers are 6-8 ATS on the road and the Heat are 8-4 ATS at home.
However, Indiana is 5-2 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 3-2-1 ATS and a plus-4.9 spread differential when playing with a rest advantage.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-112) because a boatload of money has been dumped on the Over, according to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app. However, both of these teams rank 23rd or lower in pace and the Under has cashed in eight of the past 11 Pacers-Heat meetings.
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