The No. 17 Indiana Hoosiers travel to Kinnick Stadium for a Big Ten showdown against the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes for both teams’ season opener. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Indiana vs. Iowa odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Indiana was one of the surprise stories in the Big Ten last season with a 6-2 record and finished in the top-25 for the first time since 1988. The Hoosiers return 17 starters (eight on offense, nine on defense) including junior QB Michael Penix Jr., who was lost to a season-ending torn ACL against the Maryland Terrapins Nov. 28.
After falling to 0-2, Iowa rattled off six straight wins to end its 2020 campaign and five of those victories were by double digits. The Hawkeyes bring back 14 starters (seven on each side of the ball) including junior QB Spencer Petras, leading rusher RB Tyler Goodson and preseason All-American C Tyler Linderbaum.
Indiana at Iowa odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indiana +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Iowa -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Indiana +3.5 (-105) | Iowa -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Indiana at Iowa odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 30, Indiana 21
Money line
PASS even though I like the Hawkeyes in this spot because Iowa (-200) is a little out of my price range for an outright win.
Iowa has won seven of the last eight meetings against Indiana but the last time these programs faced each other was in 2018.
Against the spread
GIMME IOWA -3.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the Hawkeyes should maul the Hoosiers up front and I have a few reasons to think Indiana will regress this season.
Iowa consistently develops offensive linemen that get drafted while Indiana isn’t known for its defensive prowess and ranked 113th in line yards allowed per play last season.
On top of that, Indiana ranked 111th in yards per rush last season, Iowa’s defense was fifth in yards per rush allowed and the Hawkeyes return their entire secondary. So, I’m expecting Indiana to have a lot of third and long situations and the Hoosiers were 82nd in third-down conversion rate.
Also, the Hoosiers had a minus-0.4 yards per play differential last season and benefitted from a conference-leading 20 takeaways. Iowa ranked 26th in offensive turnover rate and had a plus-1.1 yards per play differential.
Finally, there are a couple of other minor factors giving me confidence in Iowa such as a return back to a legitimate home-field advantage this season, Penix returning from a torn ACL and Petras being in his second season at the helm of Iowa’s offense.
BET IOWA -3.5 (-115).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to OVER 46.5 (-112) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer Iowa to cover rather than the total.
However, we have some “reverse line movement” as roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, but the total has been steamed down from the 47.5-point opener. It’s always a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
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