The Packers had a bizarre offseason. But here’s how they can improve slightly in a few important areas and get better in 2020.
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The Green Bay Packers won 13 games in 2019 but will enter 2020 as prime regression candidates. This reality doesn’t mean the Packers won’t be good. It means they had unsustainable success in one-score games and incredible injury luck, and their point differential in 2019 (plus-63) painted the picture of a 10-6 team, not a 13-3 team. Also, winning 13 games in an NFL season is tough, and few do it in consecutive seasons, so some regression in the win column is probably unavoidable for this team.
However, the Packers can win fewer games in 2020 and still be a better football team. Yes, that sounds counter-intuitive. Despite a wonky offseason that has confused just about everyone, the Packers can get slightly better in a few areas and be a better team overall next season, even if they only win 10 or so games.
Here’s how:
The offense improves internally in Year 2
The Packers installed a brand new offense for the first time in over a decade in 2019. It was effective at times and brilliant in flashes but altogether inconsistent. This virtual offseason certainly complicates the improvement process, but the Packers think a more refined offense, tailored to what they think they do well, will help, as well as the players and coaches all being far more comfortable in the specifics of the scheme in Year 2. It’s a reasonable expectation. In some respects, the Packers were learning on the fly in 2019, with a mashed up offense featuring some of Matt LaFleur’s ideas and some carryover from Mike McCarthy. It should be leaning far more towards LaFleur’s vision in 2020. Also, all the major pieces of the offense have a strong foundational base of the scheme to start 2020. This should be a group ready to hit the ground running, with a fully formed plan and everyone on the same page.
The passing defense improves slightly
This is an important one, and I think it’s one of the big keys to the Packers taking a step in 2020. There are legitimate concerns about the defense’s ability to stop the run, but stopping the pass is far more valuable to winning games (NFC title game be damned), and there’s a chance the Packers could get better here. If the pass-rush stays great and a secondary filled with young, talented players improves even fractionally, the Packers are going to be one of the NFL’s elite pass-stopping defenses. They have most of the pieces. Darnell Savage and Rashan Gary, last year’s first-round picks, will be in Year 2 and playing bigger roles. Savage’s development is especially crucial. Last year, the group ranked ninth in passing defense DVOA, relying a lot on disruption, turnovers and success in the red zone. They can improve internally, especially if the secondary takes a step collectively, becoming a better team defending the pass overall. And if a team is elite defending the pass, anything is possible.
Jace Sternberger is an upgrade on Jimmy Graham
Sternberger remains a bit of an unknown, but he’s going to get an opportunity to replace much of what the Packers did with Jimmy Graham, who couldn’t run or block and was a net negative for the offense for the last two years. Even if there are growing pains with Sternberger during his sophomore season, there’s a good chance he’s going to be more valuable to the offense in 2020 than Graham ever was in 2018 and 2019. He’s younger, faster and likely a bigger receiving threat. The Packers want to move him around the field and use him in the slot, disguising intentions pre-snap and challenging personnel. Having third-round pick Josiah Deguara to handle H-back duties should help open up Sternberger’s opportunities as a receiver. Defenses didn’t fear Graham in the passing game and he crippled the team’s ability to run the ball from preferred personnel groupings.
Devin Funchess is an upgrade on Geronimo Allison
Funchess wasn’t a great addition at receiver, but the Packers had a low bar to clear in terms of improving this group. Gone is Geronimo Allison, one of the two or three least efficient receivers in the NFL last season, creating an addition by subtraction scenario. Funchess, for all his warts as a receiver, should be a clear upgrade on Allison, who really didn’t have a redeemable quality other than the trust he earned with the quarterback. Funchess is a big, physical receiver with experience facing No. 1 and No. 2 cornerbacks. He isn’t a difference-maker, but there’s a good chance he’ll be better than Allison over the course of a full season.
Christian Kirksey is an upgrade on Blake Martinez
Like Funchess and Allison, the upgrade on linebacker Blake Martinez with newcomer Christian Kirksey might be slight, but slight upgrades are still upgrades. Kirksey was a competent starter in Cleveland and knows Mike Pettine’s defense. He’s not going to magically solve the Packers’ issues stopping the run or covering the middle of the field, but he’ll give the group a better chance in both areas. At the very least, Kirksey is more instinctive and a slightly better run-and-hit linebacker than Martinez. The Packers needed a lot more at this position, but Kirksey – if healthy for 16 games – gives them a puncher’s chance.
Packers get better with play action
The entire offense is built around deception. Matt LaFleur wants to be able to put big people on the field, force the defense to play big to counter and then throw the ball around the big people with run action. Drafting a quarterback and a running back in the first two rounds doesn’t really help with this goal, but at least the Packers addressed the need for a versatile tight end by getting Deguara. To truly improve on offense, the Packers must be a far better play-action passing team in 2020. The thought here is that the Packers will be moving more towards the Shanahan offense and further away from the McCarthy offense, and although the pieces still fit together awkwardly, the Packers will almost certainly be committing to more run action in 2020. More deceptive and more volume could mean better results. The Packers didn’t make a major addition at receiver, so deception will be required to get more from the passing game.
There are a lot of “what ifs” here. Functionally, the talent on the roster isn’t notably better than in 2019, and there’s little doubt that the Packers are going to face bigger week-to-week hurdles in 2020 than they faced last season. Regression is possible, maybe even unavoidable, but the Packers can regress in win total and still be in a better spot next season. A lot has to happen, mostly through internal improvement in important individual areas, but it’s possible.
