The Illinois State Redbirds (11-20, 6-14 MVC) and Northern Iowa Panthers (13-17, 9-11) meet Thursday at Enterprise Center in St. Louis in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa game odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Illinois State snapped a 6-game losing skid with a 72-53 win over lowly Evansville in the regular-season finale Sunday. It was also the team’s first cover in 7 games, snapping a 0-6-1 against-the-spread (ATS) skid previously.
Northern Iowa dropped its final 2 games, and 8 of the last 9 games of the regular season, while covering the spread just once in its final 7 contests. The Over cashed in the final 4 outings and was 11-3-1 in the last 15 games overall.
UNI swept the regular-season series, winning 66-60 at Redbird Arena as a 1-point underdog as the Under (134.5) cashed on New Year’s Eve. The Panthers then posted a 65-63 home win on Jan. 18, with ISU covering (+8.5) and the Under (135) connecting.
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Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Illinois State +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Northern Iowa -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Illinois State +3.5 (-105) | Northern Iowa -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 134.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa picks and predictions
Prediction
Northern Iowa 71, Illinois State 66
Moneyline
The moneyline is a little on the steep side as NORTHERN IOWA (-180) is right at my personal limit for a standalone play.
UNI swept the regular-season series, and the Panthers have won 9 straight meetings in this series dating back to Dec. 31, 2019.
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Against the spread
While it’s difficult to beat an opponent 3 times in a single season, NORTHERN IOWA -3.5 (-115) seems to have Illinois State’s number.
Both teams are rather dismal against the number lately, with ISU just 1-6-1 ATS in the past 8 games overall and 0-4 ATS in the past 4 at a neutral site.
UNI has managed to cover just once in the past 7 outings, but it is a solid 5-1 ATS in the past 6 neutral site contests. The latter, coupled with its dominance in the series, makes Northern Iowa the play.
Over/Under
OVER 134.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The total has gone high in 5 of the past 7 games overall for Illinois State and is 5-2 in its last 7 neutral-site outings.
UNI cashed the Over in the final 4 regular-season games and is 5-2-1 in the past 8 games following a non-cover and 5-2 in the past 7 after a straight-up loss.
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