The Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4 overall, 2-4 Big Ten) stop by Ryan Field Saturday to visit the No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (5-1, 5-1) for the Land of Lincoln Trophy at noon ET. Below, we analyze the Illinois-Northwestern college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Wildcats are No. 14 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Illinois at Northwestern: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:39 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Illinois +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Northwestern -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Illinois +14.5 (-125) | Northwestern -14.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 40 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Illinois at Northwestern: Three things to know
- Northwestern had an impromptu bye last week because its scheduled game against Minnesota was canceled due to COVID-19 complications within the Golden Gophers program. The Wildcats suffered their first loss (outright and ATS) as 13.5-point road favorites at Michigan State Nov. 28.
- Illinois opened last week’s game vs. Iowa with a 14-0 lead before giving up 35 unanswered points in a 35-21 loss. The Fighting Illini were unable to cover as 13.5-point underdogs and the loss snapped a two-game win streak.
- Despite not playing last week, Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West Division title and a berth in the Big Ten Championship. It’s the Wildcats’ second division title in the past three seasons.
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Illinois at Northwestern: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Northwestern 19, Illinois 17
Money line (ML)
Northwestern has won five consecutive Land of Lincoln trophies and it will most likely be a sixth this weekend. However (spoiler alert), I’m on the Fighting Illini plus the points. So, if anything, I’d lean Illinois (+425) for a quarter-unit. Officially, I’ll PASS and hit the spread.
Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME ILLINOIS +14.5 (-125) for 1.5 units.
First, it’s insane to lay more than two touchdowns with a Northwestern team that has nothing to play for and a terrible offense. The Wildcats are 121st in yards per play, 115th in yards per rush and 89th in points per game.
Second, the market is hitting Illinois, hence the vig, and more money is wagered on the Fighting Illini, while more bets are placed on the ‘Cats, according to Pregame.com. The money is the sharp side of the market usually.
Finally, the projected total of Illinois-Northwestern is very low. If there isn’t going to be a lot of points scored, why wouldn’t I take a double-digit cushion?
Over/Under (O/U)
The total is so low because there’s inclement weather in the forecast in Evanston, Ill. As of this publishing, there’s a 90% chance of rain, 21 MPH winds and temps expected to be in the lower 40s Saturday.
Both these teams love to run the ball. Illinois is 29th in rushes per game and 17th rush play percentage, while Northwestern is 31st in rushers per game. Also, the reason Northwestern is such a heavy favorite is that its defense is one of the country’s best units.
I only lean UNDER 40 (-110) for a half-unit because it’s a dangerously low total. Any defensive touchdown or special teams lapse could push this game Over.
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