Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction, pick: Who gets welterweight title shot at UFC 310?

Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov bring unbeaten records into their welterweight title eliminator co-main event in Las Vegas.

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 310 main event between [autotag]Ian Machado Garry[/autotag] and [autotag]Shavkat Rakhmonov[/autotag].

Ian Machado Garry UFC 310 preview

Staple info:

Record: 15-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC
Height: 6’3″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Michael Paige (June 29, 2024)
Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Cage Warriors welterweight title
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur/youth boxing exp.
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid sense of range and distance
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Good straight punches and kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Favors attempts from the clinch
+ Improved transitional grappler
^ Works well from topside

Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC 310 preview

Staple info:

Record: 18-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 77″
Last fight: Submission win over Steven Thompson (Dec. 16, 2023)
Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida/Kazakstan)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/Kickboxng
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ M-1 welterweight title
+ Amateur MMAaccolades
+ Master of sports in combat sambo and MMA
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid proprioception and accuracy
^ Counters to spinning assaults
+ Superb clinch striking
^ Slicing elbows and brutal body knees
+ Solidwrestling ability
+ Deceptive/opportunistic chokes
+ Dangerous ground-and-pound

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov point of interest: Undefeated threats

The co-main event for UFC 310 features a welterweight contenders fight between two undefeated talents.

Despite coming from a grappling base, [autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] has dabbled with the striking arts from a young age.

An accomplished youth boxer, Garry possesses solid straight punches down the center line from both stances. Although Garry primarily operates out of orthodox, he occasionally switches sides for open-stance opportunities.

When feeling in stride, Garry will attach kicks to his punches, punishing all three levels.

Garry may take the back foot a bit too much for my liking, but his comfort with distance and range-finding allows him to build progress once he can establish his lead hand. And if an opponent over-commits from their power side, Garry appears to have some natural pull counters in his repertoire.

Garry also had a fun fight with Gabe Green, who is a stance switcher who likes to fight from southpaw. Green found success when going to the body/corralling Garry against the cage, but Garry was able to break up his rhythm after establishing his range/lead hand #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/0PEkIGGzrt

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 11, 2023

That said, counter striking appears to be a potent two-way street in Garry’s fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman will need to be mindful of what’s coming back at him when standing across from [autotag]Shavkat Rakhmonov[/autotag].

An imposing Kazak fighter who has taken the welterweight division by storm, Rakhmonov is an offensive marauder who carries some deceptive craft to his game.

A master of sports in combat sambo, Rakhmonov fully understands that offense and aggression are what ultimately win fights in MMA. But what really fuels Rakhmonov’s success is his preternatural proprioception and opportunistic sensibilities that constantly allow him to flow into offensive opportunities.

Whether Rakhmonov is coming over the top of an opponent’s jab or catching them with a spin kick as they attempt to circle out, the 30-year-old phenom seldom seems short on ideas given his hardwiring for violence in all phases.

Rakhmonov’s head movement and sometimes lackadaisical defense leave some room to be desired, but he does well at quietly rolling with shots and hitting defensive pivots that allow him to return fire. And once Rakhmonov can work into clinch space, “Nomad” utilizes crafty wrist controls in conjunction with overhooks in order to land slicing elbows and brutal body knees.

Shavkat film room on the channel pic.twitter.com/X78PqJxFC6

— Jack Slack (@JackSlackMMA) December 5, 2024

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Jun 29, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Ian Machado Garry (red gloves) fights Michael Page (blue gloves) during UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity lies, no one should be shocked if Rakhmonov looks to grapple Garry this Saturday.

Rakhmonov isn’t necessarily a lights-out wrestler, but he does have some solid tricks from the clinch that he regularly goes to.

A tall and lanky fighter, Rakhmonov can lock his hands off deceptively strong over-under tie-ups as he looks to step around his opposition to complete a takedown. And if he can’t connect his hands, then Rakhmonov is not afraid to drop down for single-leg variations to maneuver some surprisingly effect knee-tap finishes to his takedowns.

Luckily for Garry, he comes from a base in judo.

Now, Garry may not be putting up Karo Parisyan-like throws in the octagon, but the judo black belt does well at keeping a strong base and stymying opposition in closed quarters.

Garry will utilize more traditional takedown attacks despite his background, but the 27-year-old seems to prefer attempts from the clinch – which could be interesting considering Rakhmonov’s acumen in said space.

Aside from his aforementioned offense in the previous section, Rakhmonov is also an incredibly crafty choke artist who can create more suffocation points than David Carradine can in a Thai hotel room.

From arm-in guillotines to makeshift rear-naked chokes with no hooks attached, Rakhmonov needs only a small window to close the show. And if he ends up in top position, Rakhmonov is not afraid to rain hell from above in the form of standing ground and pound, which is an underutilized approach (particularly for long-armed fighters).

In Garry’s defense, he has made concerted efforts to improve his grappling since moving shop to Brazil. Training with everyone from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia, Garry appeared to be approaching his ground game with renewed vigor in his last outing, so I suggest leaving some room to be surprised.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov odds

The oddsmakers and the public currently favor the Kazak fighter, listing Rakhmonov -400 and Garry +300 via FanDuel.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov prediction

Between the hype of Rakhmonov and the fact that Garry is the one who is technically fighting on short notice, I’m not surprised to see such a wide betting spread in Rakhmonov’s favor. However, I warn anyone investing too much into narratives and completely writing off Garry’s skills.

I won’t die too hard on any hills as far as Garry’s ceiling goes, but he does have some solid skills that could pose Rakhmonov issues at range.

From a higher output to a more consistent jab, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garry pester Rakhmonov early and often in this contest. And if Garry can survive some scares and drag this fight late, then he has a real chance to test Rakhmonov’s staying power (as we’ve yet to see Rakhmonov in championship rounds).

That said, output can come with a high cost – usually in the form of unforgiving counters.

As I pointed out before his fights with Michael Paige and Geoff Neal, Garry seems to struggle with fighters who can competently counter. Not only is Rakhmonov a fighter who can capitalize on openings like second nature, but his kill zone of the clinch also just so happens to be Garry’s preferred place of comfort.

Add in Garry’s propensity skirt along the outside of the cage, and it’s hard not to see Rakhmonov eventually forcing his win conditions. The pick is Rakhmonov by submission in Round 2.

Prediction: Rakhmonov inside the distance

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Garry and Rakhmonov are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view (via ESPN+).

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 310.

Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal shifted from Miami to UFC 298 in Anaheim

The rebooked matchup between Ian Garry and Geoff Neal has a new date and location.

The rebooked matchup between [autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] and [autotag]Geoff Neal[/autotag] has a new date and location.

After UFC CEO Dana White initially announced the welterweight bout for March’s UFC 299 in Miami, the clash between Garry (13-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) and Neal (15-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) has been shifted to UFC 298, which takes place Feb. 17 at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., with a main card on pay-per-view following prelims expected on ESPN and ESPN.

White announced the change of date Thursday on social media among a flurry of other fight announcements (via X):

Fight announcements:
Feb 17th, #UFC298
Feb 24th, #UFCMexico
March 30th, #UFCAtlanticCity
April 13th, #UFC300 pic.twitter.com/vcJYI3rekl

— danawhite (@danawhite) December 22, 2023

Garry was scheduled to face Vicente Luque on the main card of UFC 296 this month, but was forced to withdraw Wednesday after falling ill with pneumonia. Now, a few days later, he’s got a new date and opponent for his return. White didn’t reveal why the promotion didn’t keep the booking with Luque.

Garry and Neal (15-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) have history. They were previously booked to fight at UFC 292 in August, but Neal had to pull out of the fight and was replaced by Neil Magny, whom Garry beat in a dominant unanimous decision win. In the build up to the event, Garry wore a t-shirt with the mugshot of Neal, causing a stir online.

The Irishman is undefeated in his MMA career and is regarded as one of the more promising contenders at 170 pounds. On the other hand, Neal, a veteran of the game, is looking to build back to title contention, as he last fought in March when he was submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov. Prior to that, Neal had back-to-back wins over Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio.

The latest UFC 298 lineup now includes:

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria – for featherweight title
Henry Cejudo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Paulo Costa vs. Robert Whittaker
Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal
Amanda Lemos vs. Tatiana Suarez
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Anthony Hernandez
Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick
Marcos Rogerio vs. Justin Tafa
Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura
Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn
Danny Barlow vs. Yusaku Kinoshita

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 298.

Ian Garry wanted to fight at UFC 296 but ‘doctor made the call’; Vicente Luque reacts to news

Ian Garry expressed frustration in the wake of his removal from UFC 296, while Vicente Luque showed class while taking it in stride.

[autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] expressed frustration in the wake of his removal from UFC 296, while [autotag]Vicente Luque[/autotag] showed class while taking it in stride.

Saturday’s anticipated welterweight matchup between Garry (13-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) and Luque (22-9-1 MMA, 15-5 UFC) was scratched Wednesday when UFC CEO Dana White announced the undefeated Irishman had a case of pneumonia that would prevent him from competing at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Garry was looking to get out on the other side of a dramatic pre-fight build where he’s been the spotlight of fans, fighters and media with a win, but it won’t happen. He claims it was not his call, though, and ultimately the UFC doctors opted to pull him from the card.

“I have pneumonia,” Garry told MMA journalist Ariel Helwani in a statement. “They tried everything to help me. In the end, UFC doctor said there’s no chance I can fight. The UFC doctor made the call. … This annoys me more than anyone. I want to fight. It’s my favorite thing to do.”

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Luque, 32, had the opportunity to unseat the hyped Garry and put himself back on the map in the 170-pound pecking order at UFC 296. He displayed all class when discussing Garry’s pre-fight situation at media day, and unsurprisingly, the Brazilian acted no different in the wake of the cancellation.

“First of all, I wish the best recovery. Speedy recovery for him, and the best for his family – and it’s really unfortunate,” Luque said on Instagram. “I was so ready for this fight. I’ve had a great training camp. Anybody that sees me on social media sees a little bit of what I’ve been doing. They know how ready I am for this fight. Weight cut has been going so, so good – the easiest weight cut I’ve ever had in my career. I have all my team here supporting me. A lot of guys came out in this fight. A lot of people supported me to come watch the fight, as well, and unfortunately it’s not going to happen.

“It’s out of my control. Everything that I could do, everything that I have control of in my job and really put my heart into this, I did. I gave it my all. Unfortunately, we cannot really control everything. As I said, I wish the best. I wish recovery for Ian. Now it’s time for me to rest. I did have a hard training camp.”

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.

Ian Garry out of UFC 296 fight vs. Vicente Luque with pneumonia

Ian Garry won’t be competing at UFC 296 due to a case of pneumonia.

[autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] won’t be competing at UFC 296 due to a case of pneumonia.

After reports, prompted by X user RealJesseonFire and subsequently Chael Sonnen swirled from Wednesday that Garry (13-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) might be out of his welterweight fight Saturday against Vicente Luque (22-9-1 MMA, 15-5 UFC) following his absence from media day, UFC CEO Dana White confirmed the news.

“I know it’s out there. There’s some speculation that Ian Garry and Luque is off,” White said in an Instagram video. “It is true. It is. Ian Garry started with the flu. That turned into pneumonia. So that fight is off and is not happening. It is true.”

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C00aS5vraf-

White did not indicate whether Luque will get a replacement opponent.

Garry, No. 14 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie welterweight rankings, sees a dramatic lead-up to his planned bout with No. 13-ranked Luque come to a disappointing conclusion.

The Irishman has been has been the centerpiece of much conversation going into fight week due to facing former Kill Cliff FC training partner Luque, his relocation to multiple gyms throughout training camp and the online backlash he’s received due to a social media examination into the relationship with his wife, Layla.

Before fight week began, Garry said he was concerned about “the safety” of his wife and child. There was anticipation to hear from him during his appearance at Wednesday’s UFC 296 media day. Garry was the first fighter scheduled to speak, but did not arrive at the UFC Apex for his time slot.

Hours later, it was confirmed by White that Garry was dealing with an illness and would not compete.

UFC 296 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.

Ian Garry skips UFC 296 media day, team says ‘every intention to be at press conference’

The UIFC 296 fight week drama around Ian Garry continues to rage after he no-showed his scheduled appearance at media day.

The fight week drama around [autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] continues to rage entering UFC 296.

Garry (13-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) has been the centerpiece of much conversation going into fight week due to facing former Kill Cliff FC training partner Vicente Luque (22-9-1 MMA, 15-5 UFC), his relocation to multiple gyms throughout training camp and the online backlash he’s received due to a social media examination into the relationship with his wife, Layla.

That materialized when the session ended and UFC officials confirmed to MMA Junkie and other media members that Garry would not be speaking.

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Garry’s opponent Luque, whom he meets in a welterweight bout to open Saturday’s pay-per-view main card at T-Mobile Arena, was not bothered by the Irishman skipping his obligations and sympathized with his situation.

“I did hear that he’s concerned for his family,” Luque said at UFC 296 media day. “If that is the reason, I have his back. I think the biggest thing that we have is our family. Whenever somebody disrespects our family or crosses that line, I think it’s a big problem. … If he feels better like that, he has to do what he has to do.”

Vicente Luque defends Ian Machado Garry potentially skipping #UFC296 media obligations.

"I did hear that he's concerned with his family. If that is the reason, I have his back." pic.twitter.com/Kp2d934wYJ

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) December 13, 2023

Despite his no-show of media day, it appears Garry intends to attend Thursday’s UFC 296 pre-fight press conference, at which the entire main card for the event will be onstage to answer questions from media members.

According to Andy Stevenson of Irish media outlet Severe MMA, Garry “has every intention to be at press conference.”

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.

‘It’s always been business’: Teammates Ian Garry, Vicente Luque share audio messages ahead of UFC 296 fight

Teammates Ian Garry and Vicente Luque send each other audio messages after getting booked for UFC 296.

If you wanted to know where Kill Cliff teammates [autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] and [autotag]Vicente Luque[/autotag] stand after getting booked against each other, well, now we know.

In a collaboration post on Instagram on Wednesday morning, Garry (13-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) shared an exchange of audio messages with Luque (22-9-1 MMA, 15-5 UFC) discussing their booking for a welterweight clash at UFC 296 on Dec. 16.

You can hear their respectful exchange in the post below (via Instagram):

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cxsq-SFsb9H/

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Luque, No. 11 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie welterweight rankings, nearly saw his career come to an end in 2022 after he sustained a brain bleed following a knockout loss to Geoff Neal. He took an extended layoff, then returned this past month to outwork Rafael dos Anjos to a unanimous decision in the UFC on ESPN 51 main event.

The Brazilian will try to build momentum again when he meets No. 13-ranked Garry. The brash Irishman is on the rise in the division after his recent domination of Neil Magny at UFC 292 this past month, but Luque is his biggest challenge yet on paper.

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For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.

Stephen Thompson willing to fight Ian Machado Garry but sees Kamaru Usman as ‘no brainer’

Two-time UFC title challenger Stephen Thompson wants to make one final run at a belt and doesn’t think Ian Garry will get him there.

[autotag]Stephen Thompson[/autotag] wants to make one final title run, and doesn’t see the likes of [autotag]Ian Garry[/autotag] getting him there.

After his fight with Michel Pereira at UFC 291 fell through due to Pereira missing weight, Thompson (17-6-1 MMA, 12-6-1 UFC) wants to set his sights ahead.

Fights with rising contenders Jack Della Maddalena and Garry are fun stylistic matchups that he’d entertain, but after former UFC welterweight champion [autotag]Kamaru Usman[/autotag] called him out, that’s the fight “Wonderboy” wants.

“I told UFC, ‘Look, I’ll fight the JDMs. I will fight the Ian Garrys. Just give me a full training camp,'” Thompson said on his YouTube channel. “And then a few days later, lo and behold, Kamaru Usman calls me out? Let’s freaking go.

“I mean, I was willing to fight the JDMs, the Ian Garrys, the Shavkat (Rakhmonovs). But then you’ve got the guy, the No. 1 contender, the former UFC champ, one of the greatest fighters, calling me out. This was a guy I thought I would face one day and never did, and I think he was thinking the same thing. And I was just like, ‘Let’s make this fight happen. Are you kidding me?'”

Two-time title challenger Thompson has given lower-ranked contenders many opportunities, where he lost some fights, and prevailed in others. He thinks it’s only fair he fights a higher-ranked welterweight for a change.

“I’ve been fighting backwards since Tyron Woodley, apart from Gilbert Burns, to be honest with you,” Thompson said. “I’ve been fighting back. I’ve been fighting those 13s – the Geoff Neals, the Vicente Luques, the Belal Muhammads. I tried to get that fight with Michel Pereira, who I think was 15 or 13 – I don’t remember – but giving these guys a shot.

“I want to show the UFC, and not just the UFC, but the fans, that I’m not a gatekeeper. I am not a gatekeeper. I’ve got a small window to kind of do what I want to do with the fight game. I’m 40 years old, and when I see a chance to go for another title shot before it’s over, when Kamaru Usman calls me out, I’m like – dude, no brainer. No brainer.”

Thompson knows he’s had recent setbacks to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but sees a win over Usman as a ticket to a title shot.

“Leon Edwards,” Thompson said. “When I beat Kamaru Usman, that’s my plan – that’s who I want.”

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UFC 292 play-by-play and live results

Check out live play-by-play from UFC 292 in Boston with Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley and Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos title fights.

BOSTON – UFC 292 took place at TD Garden. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

In the main event, bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling (23-4 MMA, 15-4 UFC) took on challenger Sean O’Malley (17-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC). Sterling holds the UFC record for most consecutive title defenses at 135 pounds. In the co-feature, women’s strawweight champ Zhang Weili (24-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC) met challenger Amanda Lemos (13-3-1 MMA, 7-3 UFC) in the first test of her second reign as titleholder.

In addition, former middleweight champ Chris Weidman (15-7 MMA, 11-7 UFC) returned from more than two years out after a severe broken leg in 2021. He took on Brad Tavares (20-9 MMA, 15-8 UFC) in a featured bout on the prelims. Plus, two new “Ultimate Fighter” winners will be crowned on the prelims.