Tag: Hunter Luepke

Cowboys dead last in NFC spending at this position, just $3 million before free agency, draft

A review of what the Cowboys have at RB, what they’ll do once the league year starts with free agency and the draft.

The Cowboys have completed the mission. After heavily investing in the running back position in both draft and financial capital, things have bottomed out. In 2016, Dallas invested the No. 4 overall pick on the position, drafting Ezekiel Elliott. Three years later they invested financially making him the highest paid player in the history of the position.

Four years after that, while still carrying $just under $6 million in dead money after releasing Elliott, they slapped a $10 million franchise tag on Tony Pollard. Still, even in 2024, they still had $6.4 million in space being used by Elliott’s old contract. So it is just now that they’ve landed on the less invested side of things in that regard.

And landed their with authority, it might be added. The Cowboys churned out another 1,000 yard rusher, but he is a free agent, leaving just three players with under 100 total carries amongst them remaining on the roster.

So what comes next?

Rostered: $3.09 million in cap space

The Cowboys have three players under contract for 2025, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis and Hunter Luepke, who count for only $3.09 million in cap space. That’s the lowest total among all NFC teams and 30th overall.

None of the three backs have proven much, with only Luepke feeling like he has a great chance to stick.

Pending Free Agents

Rico Dowdle, the team’s starter the majority of the season and bell cow the last half of it, hits free agency for the first time. Undrafted in 2020, an injury stole his 2021 season and it took him until this year to become a consistent contributor. He’s seen as the fourth or fifth-best back available in free agency after averaging 4.6 yards a carry on his way to 1.079 rushing yards with another 249 through the air.

Dowdle’s average is a true representation of what to expect on any given carry, as his longest run was just 27 yards and he rarely broke off big gains.

The Cowboys are likely looking for someone with more juice to lead the way in their new play-action based system.

Prediction: Dowdle signs elsewhere.

External Free Agents

The Cowboys are likely going to want to meet all types of runners on their offseason roster before making their way to the draft. Luepke is the short-yardage guy, and he’s expected to make the 2025 roster regardless. Davis has the all-around label and Vaughn… well Vaughn has a touching story.

The Cowboys will likely be looking for a speed merchant style of back, but more than likely at a discount.

Prediction: Jordan Mason could see free agency this year. He’s a restricted free agent but was undrafted and it would be a big ask for the 49ers to offer him a second-round tender while also paying Christian McCaffrey big money. If he comes free, he’s the guy that would make a ton of sense to spend the NFL version of the mid-level exception on. A two year, $7 million deal with two void yearsbmay get him in the fold.

2025 NFL Draft

The Cowboys are expected to be players in the market for a top running back in a deep class. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty may slide down to No. 12 and make the decision very hard on Will McClay and company.

If not, Omarion Hampton (UNC) and Treyveon Henderson (OSU) could be second and third-round targets who offer breakaway speed at any given moment.

Prediction: The Cowboys go elsewhere with their top pick, Hampton is snatched before they hit the clock in Round 2 and Henderson is the pick in Round 3.

Cowboys RB room forecasts to look significantly different in 2025

The Cowboys may embark on a complete rebuild at the RB position in 2025. From @ReidDHanson

Roster churn is nothing new in the NFL. Even before free agency came into existence back in 1993, rosters would change significantly every offseason. Changes were inevitable then just as they are today.

This unavoidable shakeup is especially true for the Dallas Cowboys’ running back room in 2025.

The Cowboys prefer phases for personnel turnover rather than sudden, drastic changes. Too many shakeups at one position group can cause quite the ruckus if done in a single offseason. Unfortunately, this offseason there may be no way of avoiding it at the RB position.

With Ezekiel Elliott already released, and Rico Dowdle set to hit free agency this March, the Cowboys could be looking at wholesale changes at the top of their RB depth chart.

Despite being the Cowboys’ unofficial breakout player of the year, Dowdle is a tough appraisal heading into free agency. For as impressive as Dowdle has been in 2024, he comes with a concerning injury history that stretches all the way back to his college days. It’s those injuries at South Carolina that led him to go undrafted in the first place and those injuries that cause hesitation over a large multiyear extension today.

It’s very possible the Cowboys lose Dowdle to a higher bidder in free agency and are therefore forced to rebuild the RB room completely in 2025. Even players further down the RB depth chart are cause for concern. Deuce Vaughn has struggled to prove he has the stature required to survive in a rotation. He doesn’t offer much in special teams and consequently could be done in Dallas as well. Hunter Luepke is a pretty safe bet to make the roster again in 2025, but his value lies in his ability to play fullback, tight end and H-back. With just 15 career rushing attempts in 32 games, how much of a running back is he really?

To make matters worse, practice squad RBs such as Dalvin Cook and Malik Davis have shown nothing to make anyone think they factor into Dallas’ 2025 plans at all. The way things look today, it could be a total rebuild at the RB position.

Normally this degree of churn would be cause for concern. Without veteran players carrying over from the previous year, there’s no one in the position room to help new additions digest the new offense they’ve walked into. But with the Cowboys coaching staff possibly churning themselves, that’s not really an issue because everyone could be learning a new offense regardless.

Normally this would be a concern heading into free agency as well. A team without a proven backstop on the depth chart could approach free agency desperately. The 2025 free agent class doesn’t appear particularly strong so RB-hungry teams like Dallas could find themselves in a bidding war. Then again, the Cowboys have seemingly devalued the position since amping up their analytics department over the past two years and may just see who slips through the cracks instead.

Normally this would put a truckload of pressure on the NFL draft since the Cowboys would no longer be able to take a best player available (BPA) approach and be forced to draft for need. But that draft philosophy really wouldn’t be much different than it’s been the last few years.

The Cowboys have been extremely transparent in their position targeting as of late. They leave massive holes heading into the draft and act aggressively to fill those holes with their picks. It may not be the wise thing to do but at least it’s familiar to this front office.

Hunting for a rookie RB capable of starting on Day 1 is well within their ability, especially since the 2025 NFL draft class is deep at the RB position. The Cowboys don’t have to panic and pick one with their first pick, they can wait a few rounds for value to come to them. Each round will inevitably signal a rise in panic levels across the fanbase but it’s not impossible to find starting RBs in the later rounds of the draft.

Everything is setting up for major changes at the RB position in Dallas but given the potential turnover in the coaching ranks and the depth in the draft, there’s reason to believe the Cowboys can handle it.

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Cowboys Offense, defense, special teams snap counts as Luepke outsnaps all other RBs

Not Ezekiel Elliott. Not Rico Dowdle. Not Deuce Vaughn. Hunter Luepke. All Cowboys who played and how much. | From @KDDrummondNFL

They were never able to pull away, but the Dallas Cowboys held the advantage for much of the game on Thursday night in vanquishing their division rivals. The club arrived to rainy weather on Wednesday, but the skies cleared long enough at MetLife Stadium to allow the Cowboys to escape with a 20-15 victory where the defense held the opponents out of the end zone for the first time this season.

Meanwhile the offense was strong in the first half, scoring two touchdowns before bogging down in the second half. The final margin would’ve been more if it weren’t for the first 50-plus-yard field-goal attempt miss of Brandon Aubrey’s career, snapping an NFL record streak of 16 attempts.

So who all was a part of the festivities? Here’s a look at the snap counts from the contest on each of the three sides of the ball.

Total Snaps

Offense: 56
Defense: 69
Special Teams: 25

Offensive Players Snap Counts, Percentages

C Cooper Beebe: 56 (100%)
OT Tyler Guyton: 56 (100%)
OG Tyler Smith: 56 (100%)
OT Terence Steele: 56 (100%)
QB Dak Prescott: 56 (100%)
OG Zack Martin: 53 (95%)
WR CeeDee Lamb: 47 (84%)
WR Brandin Cooks: 46 (82%)
TE Jake Ferguson: 41 (73%)
WR Jalen Tolbert: 39 (70%)
FB Hunter Luepke: 29 (52%)
RB Rico Dowdle: 25 (45%)
TE Luke Schoonmaker: 19 (34%)
RB Ezekiel Elliott: 10 (18%)
WR Jalen Brooks: 8 (14%)
WR Kavontae Turpin: 7 (12%)
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford: 5 (9%)
RB Deuce Vaughn: 4 (7%)
OG TJ Bass: 3 (5%)

Defensive Players Snap Counts, Percentages

SS Donovan Wilson: 69 (100%)
LB Eric Kendricks: 68 (99%)
CB Trevon Diggs: 68 (99%)
FS Malik Hooker: 66 (96%)
LB DeMarvion Overshown: 59 (86%)
DE Micah Parsons: 57 (83%)
DT Osa Odighizuwa: 53 (77%)
CB Jourdan Lewis: 51 (74%)
DE Marshawn Kneeland: 36 (52%)
CB Amani Oruwariye: 33 (48%)
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: 30 (43%)
LB Marist Liufau: 27 (39%)
CB Andrew Booth: 27 (39%)
DT Mazi Smith: 26 (38%)
DE Chauncey Golston: 25 (36%)
DE Carl Lawson: 22 (32%)
NT Linval Joseph: 22 (32%)
DR Christian Watkins: 10 (14%)
LB Damone Clark: 5 (7%)
FS Juanyeh Thomas: 3 (4%)
DB Israel Mukuamu: 2 (3%)

Special Teams Snap Counts, Percentages

CJ Goodwin: 20 (80%)
Buddy Johnson: 20 (80%)
Brandon Aubrey: 10 (40%)
Brock Hoffman: 10 (40%)
Bryan Anger: 8 (32%)
C.Beebe C 5 (20%)
T.Guyton T 5 (20%)
T.Smith G 5 (20%)
J.Tolbert WR 3 (12%)
H.Luepke FB 15 (60%)
L.Schoonmaker TE 9 (36%)
J.Brooks WR 15 (60%)
K.Turpin WR 7 (28%)
B.Spann-Ford TE 9 (36%)
D.Vaughn RB 1 (4%)
T.Bass G 5 (20%)
D.Overshown LB 5 (20%)
O.Odighizuwa DT 5 (20%)
M.Kneeland DE 5 (20%)
A.Oruwariye CB 5 (20%)
M.Liufau LB 12 (48%)
A.Booth CB 8 (32%)
M.Smith DT 26 (38%)
C.Golston DE 11 (44%)
C.Lawson DE 5 (20%)
C.Watkins DE 2 (8%)
D.Clark LB 20 (80%)
J.Thomas FS 20 (80%)
I.Mukuamu FS 17 (68%)

Jake Ferguson injury opens door for out-the-box plan centered around under-the-radar UDFA

Hunter Luepke stands to gain the most in the absence of Cowboys starting TE Jake Ferguson. | From @ReidDHanson

Many feared the worst as tight end Jake Ferguson went down with an apparent knee injury in the third quarter on Sunday. Big things are expected of the third-year Cowboy, and the Dallas offense would have a tough time replacing the production planned from the young Pro Bowler.

Hunter Luekpe, a fullback by trade but Swiss army knife in application, has been named by Mike McCarthy as the man “at the front of the line.”

A bullet was seemingly dodged when Ian Rapoport reported it was not an ACL tear as originally feared but rather an MCL sprain that would likely require a more modest timetable.

Labeled “week to week,” speculation is Ferguson could be out anywhere from 2-6 weeks. One would assume by following next man up mentality Luke Schoonmaker would be the man tasked with picking up the slack. Schoonmaker was a second-round pick from 2023 who has considerable expectations in Year 2. Yet it’s actually an undrafted free agent from 2023 who the Cowboys appear to be turning to in the wake of the injury.

Luekpe was a key contributor in Sunday’s 33-17 win over the Browns and someone who can be deployed a variety of different ways.

Of Luepke’s 45 snaps in Week 1, only eight came out of the backfield acccording to PFF tracking. The bulk of his snaps on offense actually came as an inline TE.

His presence in the huddle offers the offense a decisive advantage over the defense. Since he can play both TE and FB, the Cowboys could be showing either 12 or 21 personnel any time he’s on the field. Where he lines up and where he motions will ultimately label his position, but he gives McCarthy the ability to move him wherever a mismatch can be found.

Luepke isn’t the player Ferguson is as a TE because he’s not really a TE, he’s something else entirely. As such the offense could change with him playing a more prominent role.

None of this means Brevyn Spann-Ford, John Stephens and Schoonmaker won’t get more opportunities because they probably will. It just appears the man to gain the most is the man listed as the FB on the Cowboys depth chart.

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Do the Cowboys need to add a RB from the outside before season?

It’s likely the Cowboys will only keep three of their eight RBs on their final roster in 2024, do they need to search for another? | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys have come under fire for their handling of the running back position this year. Letting Tony Pollard sign a three-year, $21,750,000 deal with Tennessee wasn’t an issue. Handing big money to the RB position has long been regarded as questionable behavior. Re-signing the veteran Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year, $2 million deal wasn’t an issue either. An inexpensive safety net like Elliott made sense in a back-up capacity.

Letting the draft tick by 257 players without the Cowboys claiming a single RB? That baffled a few folks. After years of accusations of overpaying, over-drafting and just generally overinvesting, the Cowboys have made a wild adjustment in the way they handle the RB position.

This 180-degree heel turn of theirs set them on the path to enter the 2024 season with some combination of Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Royce Freeman, Maliek Davis, Hunter Luepke, Deuce Vaughn, Snoop Conner and Nathaniel Peat. It’s a group that some have called the worst unit in the NFL and one even the most fervent of Cowboys fans has been having a difficult time getting excited about.

In the Cowboys first preseason game, Dowdle offered glimmers of hope. The fifth-year back out of South Carolina ran the ball three times for 14 yards. His day understandably ended early since he’s expected by many to be the top ball carrier in Dallas in 2024. Held out of action were Elliott and Freeman. The former, a veteran in whom the Cowboys are already well acquainted and the latter, a veteran who’s already banged up.

The rest of the lot played fairly uninspiring ball after Dowdle left the field. Conner led the rest of the group with a paltry 3.3 yards/carry average while no one else surpassed the 2.5 yards/carry mark. Blocking obviously played a big role in that inefficiency, but the ball carriers struggled to add anything of added value to the runs.

It’s all reaffirmed what many feared entering the preseason and supported what was happening in training camp; the Cowboys are weak at the RB position.

In a not-so-bold roster prediction, the Cowboys will likely round out their RB ranks with a player who’s not currently on the roster.

It’s fair to say other NFL teams will release someone who’s good enough to be claimed by Dallas and the Cowboys are just bidding their time until cutdown day arrives on August 27. Of the eight players listed above, it’s likely only three will make the Cowboys final 53 in 2024. It’s a list that includes Luepke the fullback since he’s reportedly beloved by the coaching staff and cross-training at the tight end position to boost his usefulness.

As things stand today, it looks like Dowdle, Elliott and Luepke are the only RBs currently in camp who are in line for a roster spot. Vaughn and Peat would then be the favorites to join the practice squad with a veteran to be named later to round out the rotation on the 53.

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Mike McCarthy’s predictability here a detriment to Cowboys’ offense

The Cowboys are far too transparent in 2RB packages, and they really don’t have to be. | From @ReidDHanson

Two running back personnel packages (21 and 22 personnel) aren’t a common deployment for most NFL teams. Outside of San Francisco, most teams avoid putting two RBs on the field together since the intentions are typically pretty obvious to defenses.

Most commonly fielded as a fullback and halfback, 21 and 22 personnel typically indicate the team is going to run the ball. In short-yardage situations and lined up in bunch formation, it often comes between the tackles. It’s more a game of willpower, leverage and strength than it is strategy or deception. In today’s parity-filled NFL, that’s something most successful coaches try to avoid.

In 2023 the Cowboys ran 21 personnel (2RB, 1TE) 33 times and 22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE) 17 times. In those instances, they ran the ball 66.67% of the time and 76.47% of the time respectively. Given the situations of those plays the Cowboys pass rate over expected in 21 personnel was -19.75 and in 22 personnel -15.64 (yes, those numbers are negative).

In each case the Cowboys are producing a negative EPA/play and in each case the EPA/play is markedly higher when they pass.

Being so run-heavy in 21 and 22 personnel, opponents had a good idea of the Cowboys’ intentions and played the situations accordingly. In both personnel groups the Cowboys produced better EPA/play passing than they did rushing, so it stands to reason they should have been passing the ball more often.

San Francisco, who plays primarily out of 21 personnel, are considered one of the better rushing teams in the NFL. Yet, like Dallas, they also perform better passing out of 21 and 22 personnel than they run it. A big difference between them and the Cowboys is the 49ers pass the ball at a pass rate over expected in each, while Dallas has a pass rate far below expected.

Looking at the rosters most will agree, San Francisco is the far superior rushing offense between the two teams. If anyone should be stubbornly and transparently rushing the ball in these situations, it’s them. But instead of relying on their talent to win in a transparent and predictable way, they employ strategy and deception and pass.

The Cowboys just seem to embrace their transparency.

Offensive coaches worth their salt will look to misdirection and deception to best their opponents. Even if they have the more talented roster, it’s considered the path of least resistance to be less transparent in play-calling and play design. It’s a way for the Cowboys to greatly improve their output in 2024 even if they didn’t improve their roster.

As luck would have it, the Cowboys have a FB who can be playmaker as a pass catcher. Hunter Luepke isn’t the most proven player in the Dallas backfield, but he’s one of the more versatile. Able to run the ball in a single set, a dual set, in short yardage, in pass protection, and as a pass-catcher, Luepke give the Cowboys a versatile piece to play with if they want to be less transparent in those two RB sets.

Even if Luepke’s not the answer to this problem, the point is clear – be less transparent on offense. If one player is so one-dimensional transparency is unavoidable, then avoid playing that player. That’s how important mystery is on offense.

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Follow the Money: Breakdown of Cowboys RBs salaries, cap hits

A breakdown of the cap spending at the running back position and how despite the cupboard being bare, there’s a sizable chunk being spent at the spot. | From @ArmyChiefW3

As quarterback takes up an enormous percentage of the Dallas Cowboys salary cap for 2024, something they should hope to reduce before the new league year begins, other positions have taken a back seat in how Stephen Jones’ proverbial pie has been divided. And while recent years have seen a sizable investment in the pasture where the bell cows have grazed, that will likely not be the case for the upcoming season.

The lack of a run game in Dallas is a huge concern, but the problem has a clear path to recovery. And while the solution may reside more along the offensive line and its performance, the club will still need to add additional investments to the running back room as it will more than likely look significantly different come training camp. With the top two backs hitting unrestricted free agency, here’s what the Cowboys currently have under contract to replace Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle’s contributions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cowboys still searching for optimal roles, identities on offense

How have the Cowboys answered questions regarding their various roles and responsibilities on offense in 2023? From @ReidDHanson

15 games into the 2023 season and the Cowboys are still trying to figure things out on offense. Who’s the optimal short yardage back? Who’s the third down go-to guy? Who’s the linchpin of the offense, are just some of the questions which appear to be up in the air.

In all fairness, it’s not as if the Cowboys don’t have options. They are ranked No. 2 in offensive EPA and No. 2 in points per game. They are a talented bunch with plenty of potential answers to the above questions. But in a win-or-go-home game in the playoffs, when a single mistake can end a season, who are the Cowboys turning to?

Last week in Miami the Cowboys showed the short-yardage situation is still unresolved. Tony Pollard failed to convert a seemingly convertible goal line play and then Hunter Luepke fumbled away a goal line exchange with Dak Prescott. There’s just no clear answer in Dallas.

CeeDee Lamb has been the linchpin the Cowboys can’t quite seem to commit to. The offense hummed when he was fed the ball, but like so many times before, things slowed to a crawl when he was left out. Lamb has proven to be a weapon as a rusher as well as a receiver. He makes it easy to scheme because he can line up anywhere on the field and execute effectively. Yet, he disappears from the gameplan from time to time.

The go-to guy on critical downs has been a timeshare of sorts in Dallas this season. At times it’s Lamb, other times it’s Brandin Cooks, and still other times it’s TE Jake Ferguson. All three have shown the ability to convert in these critical situations.  All three have also dropped easy balls and/or failed to elude that first critical tackler. When the game is on the line and the Cowboys need to convert, who’s the optimal target?

Gifts and Coal: Lamb, Luepke opposite sides of Cowboys’ studs, duds

CeeDee Lamb’s record and Hunter Luepke’s fumble are among the impact events in the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss. | From @BenGrimaldi

Santa Claus wasn’t kind to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16 as they fell to the Miami Dolphins, 22-20, on a last-second field goal. The Cowboys spent most of the afternoon trying to crawl their way back into it after being down for much of the contest, but couldn’t hold the lead once they earned it.

This wasn’t the same old story for Mike McCarthy’s team on the road. They had plenty of fight in the Christmas Eve matchup of 10-4 teams. However, they couldn’t get the one thing they wanted for the holiday, a W in the win column.

In defeat, the Cowboys have their first losing streak since 2021 and now they’ve fallen behind in the NFC East race with two weeks remaining. Here’s the Christmas edition of the studs (gifts) and duds (coal) in Dallas’ Week 16 loss.

How Pollard, Cowboys 4 other RBs stack up thus far in 2023

An analysis of the Cowboys different RB options looking at how they’re doing, how they impact the offense and their best role going forward. | From @ReidDHanson

For the better part of the season, the Cowboys’ run offense has been a one-man show. Tony Pollard has carried the lion’s share of the load since taking pole position on the Dallas depth chart. He’s is on pace to set career highs in most categories and up until last week, he was leading the entire NFL in carries and overall touches.

As the season drags on, the Cowboys will feel compelled to divvy out the workload. Pollard’s pace is probably unsustainable, and Dallas will want their top weapon to be in peak form once the postseason arrives.

The question is to who and to what extent should the carries be split. The Cowboys don’t have a proven entity or obvious answer waiting in the wings. They have a sixth-round pick and a couple undrafted free agents populating the ranks behind Pollard. Each brings a unique skill set to the table so ranking a true hierarchy is hard to do with such specialization. But certain traits have been shown and the numbers indicate some players should be given more chances while others probably deserve a few less.