Forecasting fantasy football free-agent tight ends

Two talented, young tight ends are the focus of the position’s impending free-agent class.

When the NFL’s 2020 free agency period opens March 18, we’ll see several familiar faces switching teams, including one star who may be in a new uniform for the first time in 20 years.

In fantasy football, forecasting statistical production largely hinges on where said player winds up, of course, and the nature of this being a team game means the supporting cast is an intertwining factor in developing a sound projection.

Looking at the key fantasy contributors facing free agency generates plenty of questions. Let’s try to wager some educated guesses as to where these guys will land.

Tight ends

Austin Hooper: Barring some unexpected turn of events, Hooper should hit the open market and is more likely than not to play for a new team in 2020. Atlanta has just under $5 million available in cap space, and that’s nowhere near enough money to ink rookies plus re-sign the premier free agent at his position. Several major cuts could boost the figure to somewhere near $24 million, however. Hooper would be an awesome addition for any number of teams. New England is often tossed out as a prime option, but Indianapolis, Miami, Dallas, Houston and Washington also have the need and more money to burn. Green Bay would make sense, yet money is a factor working against it happening. Chicago is a possibility, too, and the Bears freed up $13.5 million in cap space with two releases this week. Hooper is a No. 1 fantasy option in any city or system.

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Hunter Henry: Despite several significant injuries in his young career, Henry will be a prized free-agent addition in March. The primary candidates for his services appear to be New England, Indianapolis and Washington, while a handful of other teams will make a bid for him if their existing plans fall through. Henry would make so much sense in Indianapolis for both sides. Jack Doyle can help keep him fresh, and most signs point to Philip Rivers joining the Colts. New England is a commonly circulated landing spot, and it would go a long way in helping convince Tom Brady where to sign. Henry even could return to the Los Angeles Chargers, so almost anything is still on the table. My favorite dark horse is the Green Bay Packers, although money may be an issue. On talent alone, Henry is a midrange No. 1 fantasy tight end. It’s tough to envision a setting in which he isn’t at least a fringe starting option.

Eric Ebron: Looking for his third team in four seasons, Ebron has lived up to his potential just once and will be among the tougher player evaluations for personnel departments. Is he really a TE1 for an NFL franchise? Injuries have plagued him for the better part of his career, and the overall level of disappointing play cannot be ignored. Ebron is an intriguing puzzle piece for a few teams that won’t have to rely heavily on him. Tennessee, Houston, Dallas and the New York Giants are leading possibilities with cap space. Several teams are in play, however, including Jacksonville, Washington, New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Arizona, the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets. My inclination is he signs a one-year deal with either Dallas or Chicago. Ebron’s 2018 season was his ceiling, and he’s a perilous TE1 in any fantasy setting.

Tyler Eifert: It took seven years, but Eifert quietly played all 16 games in 2019 for the first time in his NFL career. The results weren’t exactly inspiring, but a quarterback carousel and a rookie head coach shouldn’t be held against Eifert. He has a chance to explore the open market and could find himself in a better situation. He has opted in the past to stick with Cincinnati, making this time basically a coin flip. His worth would increase in a proven system that is conducive to his position seeing more of the target share, and who knows what kind of instability may occur with a rookie quarterback slated to be under center for the Bengals in 2020. For now, regardless of his 2020 home, Eifert is a major risk for limited reward.

Jason Witten: The door isn’t closed yet on Witten’s return to the Dallas Cowboys in 2020, yet it seems more likely than not he will end up in a different jersey for the first time in his storied career. A handful of relevant stat lines can be expected, and there’s little to be excited about, regardless of where he lands. Don’t count out him signing with New England, and perhaps Jason Garrett can convince both the New York Giants and Witten to come to terms as insurance for the oft-injured Evan Engram. Witten surely would help in the blocking game. Anywhere he goes, the cagey vet is a weak TE2 in fantasy.

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Jordan Reed: Washington released the always-injured talent, and he’s free to sign anywhere before the March 18 opening of free agency. His sheer inability to stay healthy, and an inflated risk of suffering another concussion, makes Reed unworthy of a roster spot in conventional fantasy leagues. To the owners who are a glutton for punishment, Reed could be on the radar in the right situation. Jacksonville could be a landing spot to reunite him with Jay Gruden.

Darren Fells: It took four teams before Fells finally made enough of a mark to matter in fantasy football leagues. He caught a career-high 34 passes for 341 yards and seven TDs in 2019 with the Houston Texans. Fells re-signing with Houston shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, although it is not a lock. Sporadic touchdown dependency makes for an inconsistent option in fantasy. Fells is an overachiever and is more of a waiver target than a draftable asset.

Colts’ 2020 free agency target: TE Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry is a high-risk, high-reward target.

The Indianapolis Colts are likely in the market for a new tight end this offseason as Eric Ebron is likely to hit free agency. Could that make Hunter Henry a target?

The Road So Far

A second-round pick with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2016, Henry has had immense potential to be one of the top tight ends in the NFL. The injury bug hasn’t been too kind to him, though, and it has kept him from reaching that potential.

Henry started out strong his rookie season, recording the fifth-most touchdown receptions for a rookie tight end. He was having a solid sophomore campaign, but it was cut short in Week 15 after suffering a lacerated kidney.

Henry then suffered a torn ACL during offseason workouts in 2018 and wound up missing the entire regular season. He suffered a tibial plateau fracture in Week 1 and would miss the next four games.

In 12 games during the 2019 season, Henry caught 55 passes for 652 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 11.9 yards per reception.

Fit With The Colts

The Colts have Jack Doyle leading the tight end room, but he’s on his final contract after signing an extension during the season. Mo Alie-Cox has some upside but is still a work in progress. Henry could be a mismatch weapon the Colts like if he hits the market.

A solid blocker and a receiver that can play in-line or lined up in the slot, Henry would give the Colts a strong weapon in the middle of the field. He’s the best option on the market and while that might drive up his price a little bit, there is plenty of reason to take the risk with Henry.

If he’s finally past his injury woes, Henry would be the type of versatile tight end that Frank Reich uses heavily in his offense to a great degree of success.

Price

Because of his injury history, Henry’s price should be at a slight discount but it won’t be super cheap. Spotrac’s market value model projects that Henry will receive a four-year deal worth $35.6 million as $8.9 million per year. it’s difficult to see Henry getting that long of a deal given his injuries, but the annual average seems about right. If the Colts could scoop him up on a one or even two-year deal at that price, they should be very intrigued.

Conclusion

The Colts are in the market to add a tight end. There is risk in signing Henry because of his injury history, but the rewards are very high. He shouldn’t break the bank and could provide the Colts with youth, versatility and high-end production while working alongside Doyle.

Chris Ballard might be hesitant to sign a top free agent at his position, but the Colts should target Henry in free agency.

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5 tight ends Patriots should consider in free agency

Regardless of Tom Brady’s decision heading into 2020, the Patriots desperately need an upgrade at tight end.

Regardless of Tom Brady’s decision heading into 2020, the New England Patriots desperately need an upgrade at tight end.

The Patriots totaled 36 catches, 418 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2019 from tight ends. Benjamin Watson was the most recognizable name on the roster with Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo behind him. Rob Gronkowski’s retirement put a tremendous hole in the Patriots’ offense and his absence led to one of Brady’s most difficult seasons.

Gronkowski didn’t announce his retirement until a week after free agency began, leaving very few options on the table for the Patriots from the market. There’s a solid group of tight ends available this offseason and the Patriots now understand what their offense looks like without a top-tier guy.

Here’s a look a five free agent tight ends the Patriots should consider.

Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons

Austin Hooper, 25, spent his four NFL seasons with the Atlanta Falcons. Hooper carries the most hype out the free agent group this offseason and his potential hasn’t been fully tapped into yet. Last season, he recorded 75 catches, 787 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games. He missed three games due to an MCL sprain and his first 1,000 yard season would’ve likely came last year without missing time.

He’s a 6-foot-4, 265 pound tight end who can make a huge contribution in the passing game, but also as a blocker. There’s a solid chance New England has Hooper high on its list for free agency, but the price tag could get tricky. The Patriots have around $29 million in cap space and some important free agents to retain.

Hooper will head into the market with top-tier tight end money on his mind, so the Patriots would have to come up with an extremely tempting offer to bring him in.

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Will Chargers place franchise tag on TE Hunter Henry?

Should the Los Angeles Chargers use the tag on tight end Hunter Henry?

There’s no doubt that the Los Angeles Chargers want to bring back one of their best offensive players in tight end Hunter Henry. Henry is set to be a free agent in March, and if L.A. wants to retain him, they might have to call the Brinks truck to do so.

Henry has been banged up throughout the career, but he is easily one of the league’s top tight ends when healthy. He is a complete player at the position, showing the ability to be dangerous as a pass-catcher and reliable as a blocker. It’d be a mistake for L.A. to let him walk and look to match that type of talent elsewhere.

That is why the franchise tag should be in play for the 25-year old tight end. The Chargers know what he is capable of, but the team might want Henry to put together a full healthy season before making a potential tight end market setting long term commitment to him.

So what is the franchise tag?

A franchise tag is used by a club to prevent players from leaving by keeping them on the roster for another season. A set price for each position is determined by the league prior to free agency, and if the two parties are not able to agree on a long term deal by the summer, the player plays on the one year deal that season.

What would it cost Los Angeles?

The franchise tag for tight ends is projected to be just over $11 million, per the Over The Cap. Using the franchise tag makes sense here. Want Henry to prove himself for one more season before handing over the check? Give him the tag, which would pay him even a little bit more what he would likely make annually for multiple seasons before making the commitment.

Teams can first designate franchise players on Feb. 25 and must do so by March 10 at 4 p.m. ET at the latest.

If the Chargers want to bank on the former Arkansas product, I expect Henry to likely end up with a four-year deal for $36 million and $38 million in total value.

If the Jags spend big anywhere in free agency, it needs to be at TE

The Jags have had unfortunate luck at TE but this year they need to try and find an answer in free agency.

Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell has been on record for saying fixing his team this offseason could be a quick fix, however, there are several hurdles in the way that makes fans think otherwise. Whether that’s fixing the cap situation or paying Yannick Ngakoue, fans have their doubts about Caldwell’s ability to make things work but those are easy fixes that I could see being resolved.

However, there is another hurdle that could be an even bigger threat to Caldwell’s future in Jacksonville that many seem to be overlooking: the team’s history at tight end.

To put it simply, the Jags have lacked star power at the position for almost a decade and the last time they’ve gotten noteworthy production there was 2012 when Marcedes Lewis hauled in 52 passes for 540 yards and four touchdowns. Two years prior he put together the best season of his career (and was named a Pro Bowler), racking up 58 catches for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns.

For the Jags, that lack of production isn’t a good thing in an era where having sound play at tight end is pivotal. That’s exactly why I listed the position as the Jags’ second-biggest need this offseason, and clearly, they will need to address it with a solid option in the coming months.

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Bengals free-agent targets suggested by PFF make plenty of sense

Some new Bengals free-agent targets make plenty of sense.

Whether the Cincinnati Bengals will be more active than usual in free agency is quite the interesting question mark this offseason as the team heads into Year 2 of the Zac Taylor era.

Being overly active hasn’t largely been how the Bengals approach the open market. But after the organization received a jolt in the form of a miserable season while a new head coach inherited largely the same roster as his predecessor, perhaps there is a possibility of newfound aggressiveness.

That in mind, it’s interesting to consider some of the potential targets. Pro Football Focus’ Anthony Treash recently outlined three interesting names for the Bengals to target: CB Byron Jones, G Joe Thuney, TE Hunter Henry.

An intriguing list, to say the least. Byron Jones might end up being one of the highest-paid corners this offseason while the Dallas Cowboys focus on retaining Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Jones is great, but unless the Bengals let Darqueze Dennard walk and restructure Dre Kirkpatrick, it’s hard to imagine they spend big there with Darius Phillips waiting for a chance.

Hunter Henry might be more realistic, though if the Bengals want to gamble on oft-injured tight ends with massive upside, re-upping with Tyler Eifert again might make just as much sense. But it’s hard not to like Hunter, who is only 25 and has played in double-digit games in three of the last four years, scoring 17 touchdowns in the process.

Most appealing here is Joe Thuney, an underrated New England Patriots guard about to get paid big on the market, hence last year’s 77.4 grade at PFF and elite standing in pass protection. If Thuney comes to Cincinnati, he’s an immediate starter at left guard, which shoves Billy Price and Michael Jordan into potential competitions on the right side.

This certainly isn’t a bad place to start when thinking up potential Bengals free-agent targets. The front office will focus on retaining its own first, but even one guaranteed upgrade like Thuney would free up things like draft assets to address other lacking areas as the Taylor revamp continues.

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Panthers 2020 potential free agent target profile: TE Hunter Henry

Our next potential 2020 free agent target is Hunter Henry.

Greg Olsen wants to continue playing in the NFL. It won’t be with the Panthers, though. They released him last month. Since then, he’s been working as an XFL analyst and has meetings set up with the Bills, Redskins and Seahawks.

Replacing Olsen won’t be easy for general manager Marty Hurney. However, there are several high quality tight ends who are about to hit the market. Our next potential 2020 free agent target is Hunter Henry.

Career stats:

Henry played college ball at Arkansas, then the Chargers picked him in the second round of the 2016 NFL draft. So far, Henry has appeared in 41 games, totaling 136 catches, 1,709 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. He was named to the All-Rookie team in 2016, when he caught eight.

Pros:

If the Panthers are looking for a clone of Olsen, Henry is about as close as they’re going to get. The two are almost the exact same size and Henry has the same soft, reliable hands. His career catch rate is 71.2% and he’s consistently moved the chains, posting 98 first downs. Henry can also help fill Carolina’s need for a new red zone weapon, which is even worse now that Olsen is out of the picture.

Cons:

The big question mark with Henry is his health. He missed the entire 2018 season due to a torn ACL. He also missed four more games this past season due to a tibia plateau fracture. Another major knee injury could seriously limit what he is able to accomplish in his career.

Probability: Medium

Only Hurney could tell you what his interest level is, but on the surface Henry seems to be an excellent fit to replace Olsen. The x-factor will be his price tag, which could be effected in a major way by new contracts for players like Austin Hooper and Eric Ebron.

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4 TEs who could replace Eric Ebron for Colts

Eric Ebron is likely gone. How can the Colts replace him?

Earlier in the offseason, Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard made it clear they likely weren’t going to bring back tight end Eric Ebron, who is an unrestricted free agent.

Though his 2018 season was immaculate, Ebron’s 2019 campaign was disappointing and it ended with him deciding to get season-ending surgery—a decision it seems the Colts may have disagreed upon. Now, the Colts have to find his replacement.

Whether it’s through free agency or the draft, here are four tight ends the Colts could acquire to replace Ebron:

Hunter Henry | Age: 25 | Free Agency

The Colts tight end room currently consists of Jack Doyle, who signed a three-year extension this offseason, and Mo Alie-Cox. Doyle, while great in his own right, isn’t going to be around forever. Alie-Cox is still a work in progress but a promising one. Enter Henry, who could be a gem for the Colts.

Entering free agency for the first time, there are some hopes that Henry gets to his the market. He’s an electric pass catcher and the type of talent that can help the Colts immediately while giving them a potential future at the position.

Philip Rivers goes DEEP…

Hunter Henry hauls it in for SIX! #LACvsNYG pic.twitter.com/TLVpWwMIwY

— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2017

The biggest risk with Henry comes with his injury history. It hasn’t been encouraging since he entered the league. He suffered a lacerated kidney (2017), a torn ACL (2018) and a tibial plateau fracture in his left knee (2019). There is obvious risk with the injuries but that could lead to getting a discount on the market.

If the Colts want an NFL-ready tight end to make a difference in the offense, they should look no further than Henry.

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Chargers Mailbag: 2020 NFL Draft, Philip Rivers, Joey Bosa, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, offensive line

Chargers Wire’s Gavino Borquez addresses questions regarding the 2020 NFL Draft, Philip Rivers’ future, paying Joey Bosa and Hunter Henry.

Anthony S. — In such a deep offensive line draft and many veteran quarterbacks in free agency, is it more likely that the Chargers make a play for one of the quarterbacks at 6 or do they look at (Isaiah) Simmons or an interior defensive lineman early on?

To me, the Chargers have four glaring roster needs that they need to fulfill during the draft – quarterback, offensive line, wide receiver and cornerback. Since Los Angeles is picking so high – this being the third time they’ve selected in the top-10 in a 15-year span – they’re in a good position to grab their future face of the franchise.

Clemson linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons has been a big riser, and has been linked to the Chargers with the idea that him and safety Derwin James would make a lethal tandem in the backend of the defense. Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown is the top-ranked player at his position and would be a plug-and-play nose tackle for L.A.

Any other year I could see Simmons or Brown being atop of the Bolts’ big board, but I think the quarterback position takes rein because of where they’re picking and how much of a need it is to find future signal-caller. Even though I am a firm believer of taking talent over need, quarterback is the most important position on the field.

The offensive tackle position is certainly in play since the team needs to fortify it after a below average output in 2019. But I can see general manager Tom Telesco be aggressive in free agency to bring in at least one big-name player, and then look to take advantage of a deep positional group in the draft by snagging a starting caliber player in Round 2.

Jacob F. — Would it be smart to pick up a lineman in the first round or wait til later or free agency?

I laid out how the Chargers should go about addressing the offensive line.

Daniel G. — What’s the possibility of trading down for some early round draft picks? Address offensive line and run defense.

I’ve seen more and more fans wanting to trade down in the first-round to acquire more picks. While it sounds like a reasonable option because who wouldn’t want more ammo to draft players, I believe that Telesco likes where the team is sitting in the top-10. Like I mentioned in my first answer, this is a prime position to draft a quarterback. If anything, there’s more of a possibility that he looks to trade up two or three spots to jump another quarterback-needy team in the Miami Dolphins so that way they can secure their guy.

Brian W. — Do you think the Chargers will pay out for Henry and Bosa?

Re-signing tight end Hunter Henry and extending defensive end Joey Bosa should be at the very top of the Chargers’ to-do list. With Los Angeles having a projected $56.245 million in salary-cap space – the most in Telesco’s tenure with the team, a decent amount of that money needs to be dealt to the two.

With Henry, he has been banged up throughout the career, but he is easily one of the league’s top tight ends when healthy. He is a complete player at the position, showing the ability to be dangerous as a pass-catcher and reliable as a blocker. It’d be a mistake for L.A. to let him walk and look to match that type of talent elsewhere. The Packers’ Jimmy Graham is the highest-paid tight end in football right now at $10 million in average annual value. I expect Henry to top that, likely ending up with a four-year deal for $36 million and $38 million in total value.

Bosa is slated to make $14.36 million on his fifth-year option next season. Based on the impact that he’s made since joining the team, he would be underpaid if he was to play making that much in 2020. That is why Bosa could possibly hold out if he doesn’t receive a hefty contract this offseason. Los Angeles will likely pay him in the ballpark of what Cowboys’ DeMarcus Lawrence got, which is five years, $105 million, with $65 million guaranteed or even Bears’ Khalil Mack’s six-year, $141 million deal with $90 million guaranteed.

@Jtex_33 — Where will Rivers land?

I laid out five potential landing spots for Rivers if the team decides to move on from him. Given the fact that he moved his family from California to Florida, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Miami Dolphins could also be in play. But one option that isn’t talked about that much that could still be a possibility is retirement. Rivers did say that he wants to play in 2020, but a week or two prior to saying that, he told the media that he was going to weigh out his options with his family after the season – which is something that I’m sure he has done or is still in the process of doing. Even though he said he felt like he could still play, his mind could change, and the move could factor into his decision.

David M. — How high of a priority is it to pick up a running back to replace Melvin Gordon? Or should we consider signing him at this point?

If the Chargers move on from Gordon this offseason, they should absolutely look to bring in another running back. But it wouldn’t be a glaring need like many people think it is. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson would sit atop of the depth chart. Telesco has had a knack for finding gems outside of the early rounds of the draft. Ekeler went undrafted and Jackson was drafted in the seventh-round. This year’s class is no different, as late-round gems can be found. The team could also look to re-sign Troymaine Pope to solidify the position.

Should Redskins target Packers’ TE Jimmy Graham this offseason?

Some expect the Packers to move on from Jimmy Graham this offseason, and the Redskins could wind up targeting him via trade or free agency.

There are a number of potential tight ends that the Washington Redskins could choose to target in the 2020 free agency period, and one more name might be added to the list soon.

So far we have players like Hunter Henry, Greg Olsen, Austin Hooper, and Eric Ebron. Now it’s starting to look like Jimmy Graham might be up for grabs as well.

According to a report from Rotoworld Football, the Green Bay Packers are expected to move on from Graham this offseason, though he still has one year left on his contract. Graham has spent the last two years in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations he built as a young player.

Starting his career with the New Orleans Saints, Graham had 51 total touchdowns in the first five years of his career. After leaving to join the Seattle Seahawks, Graham’s production started to drop off, and he’s totaled just 22 touchdowns in the five years since.

Still, Graham is a big-bodied receiver that has proven before what he can do when given the opportunity, Should the Redskins miss out on some of the top names that we mentioned above, it’s highly possible that they could take a shot on Graham and hope that he returns to his younger form. Whether it be by trade or signing, a path exists for Graham to end up in Washington ahead of the 2020 season. Even if he doesn’t return to what he once was in New Orleans, the version we’ve seen in years past in both Seattle and Green Bay would be a great improvement over what the Redskins currently have at the TE position.

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