The No. 5 seed Houston Cougars (30-5) meet the No. 4 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (23-9) Sunday in the second round of the South Region. Tip from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh is set for 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we look at the Houston vs. Illinois odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Cougars defeated 12th-seeded UAB 82-68 in the opening round Friday, covering as 8.5-point favorites.
Houston is 4-0 this postseason, including three wins in the AAC Tournament. The Cougars are one of just 3 teams that rank in the top 12 in offensive and defensive efficiency per Kenpom.
They are No. 15 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, while Illinois is No. 16. Kenpom has the Illini ranked 17th and in the top 30 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Fighting Illini escaped a first-round upset in squeaking by 13th-seeded Chattanooga 54-53 in Friday’s first round. Illinois, which failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite vs. the Mocs, is led by C Kofi Cockburn, who averages 21.0 points, 10.7 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game.
Houston vs. Illinois odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Houston -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Illinois +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread (ATS): Houston -4.5 (-107) | Illinois +4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
[tipico]
Houston vs. Illinois odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 71, Houston 67
Money line
LEAN to ILLINOIS (+165).
This is a risky play, but the value is there.
Illinois is one team most are low on after a near-loss to Chattanooga. The Mocs were an experienced, well-coached team that pushed the Fighting Illini to their limits.
However, Illinois has the most dominant big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot Cockburn. Houston has just one player that stands taller than 6-foot-8 (C Josh Carlton).
Also, the Cougars defense, which ranks No. 1 in opponents’ field-goal percentage (37.2%), struggled against the Blazers. UAB shot 46.4% from the field and scored 68 points in the opening-round contest.
The Blazers defense couldn’t keep up with the Cougars, but the Fighting Illini have the No. 24-ranked defense per Kenpom and possess the size in the paint to defend Houston. The Illini should be able to put up a fight.
Against the spread
BET ILLINOIS +4.5 (-115).
The money line has value, but the spread is the better play.
The Illini have only been underdogs three times this season, going 1-2 ATS in those games. They lost to Arizona by 4 as 2.5-point dogs in December and suffered a 16-point blow at Purdue as 5.5-point underdogs in early February. The cover was an 87-83 win at 3.5-point favored Iowa Dec. 6.
Arizona, Purdue and Iowa were seeded 1, 3 and 5 in this NCAA tourney.
Rarely an underdog, Illinois ranks 45th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.7%), so either the Cougars are going to have to let Cockburn by 1-on-1 in the paint or play to Illinois’ strength.
Either way, I envision the Fighting Illini keeping it close and covering the 4.5 points.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 133.5 (-115).
Illinois is 17-14-1 O/U and has an offense that will force Houston to react defensively or else allow the Big Ten’s best big man to eat the Cougars alive.
Houston cashed Over 138 tickets in the win against UAB and is 2-2 O/U in the postseason.
The Cougars defense struggled against the Blazers and hasn’t been great against ranked opponents this season, both of which won’t trend well against the Illini.
The Cougars are 2-0 O/U against ranked teams.
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