The Houston Astros are the defending World Series champs, and they’re hungry for more in 2023. The Astros have been to the World Series 4 times in the past 6 seasons, winning 2 rings, including manager Dusty Baker’s 1st ring in 2022.
The Astros will certainly have a different look in 2023, however, as RHP Justin Verlander left via free agency, and the team also has to replace catchers Jason Castro and Christian Vazquez, LHP Will Smith, SS Trey Mancini.
Houston also lost 1B Yuli Gurriel to free agency, but made a splash by landing 1B Jose Abreu on a 3-year, $60 million deal.
The Astros might take a small step back, but they’ll be right there among the contenders when the dust settles at the end of the regular season. Let’s analyze the Houston Astros’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and AL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
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Houston Astros World Series odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday, March 26, at 11:07 a.m. ET.
Odds: +600 (bet $100 to win $600)
The Astros are the favorites, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (+700), New York Mets (+700) and New York Yankees (+750).
At +600, Houston has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 14.29% or 6/1 fractional odds.
The Oakland A’s have the longest odds at +40000 with the Washington Nationals next at +30000.
The Astros lost Verlander to the Mets in free agency, so the pitching staff will have a slightly different look in 2023.
LHP Framber Valdez, who won 17 games a season ago, while posting 194 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP, figures to be the new ace of the staff. RHP Christian Javier didn’t have the same type of success in the win column at 11-9, but he had a 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts and a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, so even without Verlander, this staff should be just fine.
RHPs Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy also have solid track records, and fill out the staff. RHP Hunter Brown, the team’s top prospect, could get a chance out of the gates with RHP Lance McCullers Jr. nursing a muscle strain in his forearm, likely keeping him from starting the season on time.
Abreu was a tremendous addition to the lineup, although his power numbers did tail off in 2022 with the White Sox. After a 30-homer, 117-RBI campaign in 2021, he managed just 15 homers and 75 RBI last season, although his strikeouts were down, and his average and on-base percentage was way up.
The Astros don’t need Abreu to mash 30 homers to be successful, as this remains one of the best lineups top to bottom. And Gurriel hit just .242 with 8 homers for the Astros last season, so Abreu is an obvious upgrade.
I don’t like betting the chalk, especially in futures bets, as I like the contenders from the National League a little better this year. But you certainly wouldn’t be throwing money away on Houston, as it looks to run it back.
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Houston Astros playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes -850 | No +520
The Astros are a huge PASS for me, as laying 8 1/2 times your potential return is never a good bet, especially when dealing with futures. For instance, if you were to make a $100 bet on the Astros to make the postseason, your winnings at season’s end would be a whopping $11.77. It’s just not worth it.
Houston Astros win total
Over/Under: 95.5 (O: -106 | U: -116)
The Astros won 106 games last season, winning the AL West by a 16-game margin. Yes, again, this team did lose Verlander, but it still has plenty of pitching in place, and Brown or McCullers Jr. working out of the 5th spot in the rotation is more than adequate.
The books might be overestimating the effect of losing Verlander, as do you really believe his departure will cost the team 10 wins? Yes, Seattle will be better in the division, but the Astros are going to roll up a lot of wins against the in-state rival Texas Rangers and the floundering Oakland Athletics. If Houston doesn’t win at least 100 games, it would be a huge upset.
In addition, this is a very good offense, as 2B Jose Altuve is likely to be atop the order again, with OF Michael Brantley, DH Yordan Alvarez and 3B Alex Bregman making up the meat of the order. OF Kyle Tucker belted 30 homers with 107 RBI, and Abreu figures to slot into the 6th spot in the order.
How many teams have a 7th-place hitter contributing 22 homers and 11 steals? That’s where the Astros are with SS Jeremy Pena, and OF Chas McCormick has a little pop near the bottom of the order. There are just no weaknesses, and it’s going to be another highly productive season in H-Town.
In other words, Houston, it has very little problems.
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To win AL West Division
- Houston Astros -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Seattle Mariners +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
- Los Angeles Angels +800 (bet $100 to win $800)
- Texas Rangers +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
- Oakland Athletics +20000 (bet $100 to win $20000)
Houston’s implied probability of winning the AL West is 68.75%, or 5/11 fractional odds.
Again, you can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return on a singular bet, especially on a futures bet. That’s tying too much money up for a very small return at season’s end.
The Mariners will give chase, closing the gap from 16 games back in 2022, to perhaps single digits. But there is very little chance the Astros aren’t able to run it back and hoist another division title banner.
While I like Houston to dominate this division again, PASS, as there is no value playing the chalk.
To win American League
Odds: +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
This might be the best play on the board among Astros props.
The Astros should be a slam-dunk to win the AL West, but there is no value there. If Houston does, somehow, miss the division title, there is little chance it misses the playoffs altogether. But there is no value playing the playoff prop, either.
While I am higher on NL teams to win the World Series, I think Houston still has a more than good chance of representing the AL, and at least having a chance at a title. Houston’s pitching staff is top-notch, and the batting order, top to bottom, is the class of the AL, too.
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