The Houston Astros (79-56) tangle with the San Diego Padres (72-64) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the series rubber match. San Diego picked up a 10-2 win Saturday after Houston beat the Padres 6-2 Friday.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2.
RHP Luis Garcia is Houston’s projected starter. Garcia is 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA (128 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 23 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in Houston’s 4-3 victory at the Seattle Mariners Monday with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- Road splits: 4-3 with a 4.85 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.37 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in 12 starts.
RHP Chris Paddack gets the nod for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.98 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 20 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in San Diego’s 7-5 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday.
- Home splits: 3-4 with a 6.59 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.68 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB in nine starts and one bullpen outing.
Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Padres 5, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-110) because we are a huge “line freeze” in the betting market and this is just a better spot for San Diego.
According to the early-morning action report at Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered was on the Astros, but oddsmakers didn’t touch Houston’s money line.
Furthermore, Garcia is a lot less effective on the road than at home and the Padres are 12-5 overall in interleague games while the Astros are just 7-9.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though it would be great to have some insurance for our San Diego money line wager. However, the Padres +1.5 (-180) needs to be south of -150 before I’d wager on them.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-107) for a tiny wager because there’s a little “reverse line movement” in the betting market as roughly 90% of the money bet in the early-morning action report is on the Over according to Pregame.com. However, oddsmakers have brought the Astros-Padres total down from the flat-9 opener.
It’s a red flag whenever the House makes the more popular side cheaper. This suggests sportsbooks want more pro-Over wagers because the oddsmakers think their projected total is sharp.
However, since my handicap of the Astros-Padres is mostly just a “contrarian play” against a market barreling into the Over, I’m not confident enough to bet a lot on the Under.
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