Tag: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Houston Astros (89-61) meet the Los Angeles Angels (72-78) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston took the series opener Monday 10-0

Season series: Astros lead 11-5.

RHP Jose Urquidy takes the mound for the Astros. Urquidy is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 18 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 6 K Wednesday at the Texas Rangers.
• Urquidy earned a no-decision in Houston’s 9-1 home win over L.A. May 12 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
• vs. Angels on the current roster (19 PA): 5.39 FIP with a .421 batting average, .460 wOBA, .567 expected slugging percentage, 15.8 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity.

RHP Packy Naughton is on the hill for the Angels. Naughton is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 8 BB and 11 K across three starts and two relief appearances in his rookie season.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Astros -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
• Against the spread/ATS: Astros -2.5 (+105) | Angels +2.5 (-130)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Astros 8, Angels 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Astros (-230) because they are clearly the right side since it’s September so Houston is ramping up for the postseason and L.A. is planning offseason vacations.

However, the Astros are just a little too expensive for an outright win and I’m hesitant to include them in a parlay because of their price as a road favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -2.5 (+105) for a tiny wager because their lineup ranks in the top 3 of wOBA, wRC+ and WAR this month whereas L.A.’s lineup is dead-last in each of those metrics for Sept.

Furthermore, this is a “pros” and “joes” play with both sides of the market laying it with the Astros, which has caused sportsbooks to increase Houston’s money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) because the “pros” and “joes” are on the Over as well and have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener.

Also, the Astros-Angels have played to the Over in 10 of their last 14 meetings in L.A., Houston is 10-5 O/U when Urquidy gets the start and the Astros are 39-24-4 O/U against AL West teams.

I’d feel stronger about the OVER 9.5 (+105) if L.A.’s lineup wasn’t a complete no-show over the past three weeks.

However, as we saw Monday, the Astros are dialed in at the plate and the Angels’ bullpen is weak enough that Houston can push this game Over the total itself.

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The Los Angeles Angels (72-77) host the Houston Astros (88-61) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 10-5.

LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. Valdez is 10-5 with a 3.26 ERA (116 IP, 42 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 across 19 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 10-5, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 6 K vs. the Angels Sept. 10 in his only 2021 appearance against L.A.
• vs. Angels on the current roster (73 PA): 4.72 FIP with a .270 batting average (BA), .331 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.5 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Jaime Barria is on the rubber for the Angels. Barria is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 across nine starts and two relief appearances.

• Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-1 loss at the Astros Sept. 12 with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
• Barria is 0-1 against Houston this season with a 5.14 ERA (7 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 7 K in two starts.
• vs. Astros on the current roster (134 PA): 6.53 FIP with a .308 BA, .410 wOBA, .453 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 89.0 mph EV.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:02 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Angels +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
• Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-135) | Angels +1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Angels 5

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Angels (+175) because I like them on the run line, L.A. has a winning record both at home and against lefty starters and the line hasn’t moved much from the opening number despite one-sided action on the Astros.

However, Houston is 44-22 vs. AL West foes, is playing much better baseball than Los Angeles at the moment and the Angels’ roster is probably starting to make offseason plans while the Astros are ramping up for postseason baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ANGELS +1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer the Over than a side in this contest.

That said, L.A.’s hitting splits against left-handed pitching are around league average and Valdez only got a win over the Angels in their last meeting because of enormous run support. In fact, Valdez’s FIP vs. L.A. Sept. 10 was his highest of the year for any start and his EV was the fourth-highest.

Houston holds an edge in the three most important phases of the game but that’s accounted for in the pricing and the ANGLES +1.5 (+110) is the only way I’d play it. Again, I much prefer the total in this game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 8.5 (-135) because neither starter has looked good against their respective opponent and L.A.’s bullpen has really struggled this month. The way I envision this game playing out is the Angels get an early lead on Valdez then the Astros storm back vs. an L.A. bullpen that’s in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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