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There will be no player on the field for the 2020 Super Bowl that is likely to garner more defensive attention than Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. Below, we’ll look at the Super Bowl LIV prop bet odds and lines centered around Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET.
Tyreek Hill 2020 Super Bowl receiving yards
Due to the Chiefs having plenty of offensive weapons, and their penchant for sharing the wealth, Hill has a manageable Over/Under number for his receiving yards in Super Bowl LIV at 74.5 yards (-112 for both the Over and the Under). It’s an achievable number, especially given Hill’s big-play ability, but there are some key factors making it more difficult to hit the Over than it may appear.
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Hill struggles in playoff football
The most obvious hurdle is Hill’s postseason track record. Over the last two seasons, Hill has played in four playoff games. In those games, his yardage totals have been 72, 42, 41 and 67, despite having eight receptions in one of the games and five in another. Dating back to Week 10, Hill hasn’t hit 75 yards in any of his last eight games. Defenses have made it a point to take him away from the offense and the opposition has succeeded for two months.
He won’t be the No. 1 option
Second, is that the San Francisco 49ers may have the best defensive front the Chiefs have faced all season. They’re five deep and come at you in waves. They don’t need to blitz to get pressure and they’re going to make it their mission to keep Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes contained in the pocket and getting rid of the ball faster than he would like. This could be great news for TE Travis Kelce and the secondary receivers, but not Hill. His strength is getting behind defenses and creating big plays. That doesn’t happen when Mahomes doesn’t have the luxury of four or five seconds to throw the ball.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 2020 Super Bowl odds and betting trends
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
The 49ers have an answer in coverage
Third, is that the 49ers are likely going to have CB Richard Sherman chasing Hill wherever he goes and, on the plays he doesn’t, they will double-cover Hill. Either way, it’s not good for Hill because, if Mahomes has the clock in his head ticking faster than real-time, he’s not going to take the chance of testing Sherman in tight coverage or throw into a bracket of defenders. He’s been forewarned about not throwing the risky passes that lose Super Bowls. He won’t have many big-play opportunities with Hill.
The bottom line with Hill is that he’s not a reception machine. He has more than five receptions in just four of 14 games he has played this season, but he’s projected for 5.5 in Super Bowl LIV.
Take the UNDER 74.5 (-112) on his receiving yards and the UNDER 5.5 (-143) on Hill’s receptions, as well.
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