In a light heavyweight bout, Ed Herman and Mike Rodriguez do battle at UFC on ESPN+ 35 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.
Herman (26-14) steps into the octagon as a decisive underdog, and he is on the short end of most of the measurables. He stands three inches shorter than Rodriguez (11-4), and he has a 5½-inch reach disadvantage. In addition, Rodriguez holds a 4.59 to 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he also leads at 54.80 to 49.66 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. As long as the southpaw Rodriguez manages to avoid going to the canvas, he should be able to steer clear of trouble.
Herman has advantages in takedown average, 2.20 to 0.00, and submission average, 1.17 to 0.00. That’s really the only area he has a distinct advantage, and you know that’s gotta be in his game plan. Herman – nicknamed “Short Fuse” – has bounced back after a three-bout losing streak from July 30, 2016 to Oct. 27, 2018, knocking out Patrick Cummins on May 18, 2019 before posting a unanimous-decision victory over Khadis Ibragimov last time out on Nov. 9, 2019.
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Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.
The price on Rodriguez (-239) is a little steep, as you have to risk more than two times your potential return, and that’s not a risk I am willing to take. Betting RODRIGUEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-139) is a much better bet on the 5-way line. You can bet Rodriguez by KO/TKO or DQ (-134) on the 7-way line, taking out the submission result, but it isn’t that much cheaper. In fact, the difference is negligible, so why limit yourself?
As far as the fight length is concerned, betting No (-228): “Will the fight go the distance?” is a bit too expensive. Go with UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-189), which is a little more affordable.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 35 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Rodriguez: ‘When opportunity knocks, open the door’ (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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