The San Antonio Spurs (17-23) host the Miami Heat (29-12) Sunday afternoon at AT&T Center for a 3 p.m. ET matinee tip-off. We analyze the Heat-Spurs sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Heat at Spurs: Key Injuries
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
- PG Justise Winslow (back) out
Spurs
- PF Rudy Gay (illness) doubtful
- PG Dejounte Murray (illness) questionable
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Heat at Spurs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 110, Spurs 107
Moneyline (ML)
The HEAT (-115) are a strong play as a slight road favorite against the Spurs (-106). Miami has won two straight games, beating the Spurs 106-100 at home Wednesday and the Oklahoma City Thunder 115-108 on the road Friday. San Antonio followed up Wednesday’s road loss against the Heat with a 121-120 setback at the hands of the lowly Atlanta Hawks Friday.
The Spurs are an adequate 11-10 at home, while the Heat are 11-11 on the road. Miami is 17-6 straight up on the season with one day of rest; San Antonio is just 10-18 in those situations. The Heat also have the better cross-conference record, going 10-6 against the west, while the Spurs are just 8-10 against Eastern Conference opponents.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Get slightly better value on the HEAT (-1.5, -106) by backing them to win by at least two points. A $10 bet on the Heat to win by two or more points results in a profit of $9.43. The same bet on the moneyline for the outright win would return a profit of $8.70.
Miami has the NBA’s second-best record against the spread at 24-15-2. San Antonio is 28th in the Association with an ATS record of 15-24-1. The Heat are 10-11-1 ATS on the road, but the Spurs are just 6-15-0 at home.
Over/Under (O/U)
Play the UNDER 221.5 (-115). Wednesday’s combined point total fell well short of this number and both teams are playing their third game in five days. All four injury concerns mentioned above are averaging more than 10 points per game.
The Spurs are 25-15-0 against the Over/Under this season, while the Heat are 25-15-1. Bet against the trends Sunday and expect an output closer to what we saw earlier this week.
Esten’s NBA betting record: 148-118
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