The Miami Heat (40-22) head to the Big Easy on Friday to play the New Orleans Pelicans (26-36) in the Smoothie King Center at 8 p.m. ET. We analyze the Heat-Pelicans odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Heat at Pelicans: Key injuries
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (ankle) out
- PF Meyers Leonard (ankle) out
Pelicans
- SG Kenrich Williams (back) probable
- SG J.J. Redick (hamstring) out
- SF Darius Miller (Achilles) out
Heat at Pelicans: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 5:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Pelicans 120, Heat 116
Moneyline (ML)
These teams head into Friday’s game playing in different forms. The Heat (+105) won the last four of their recently concluded five-game homestand, while the Pelicans (-125) have lost three in a row and four out of their last five games. Miami tore up New Orleans 109-94 in their first game on Nov. 16 but the Pelicans were without Zion Williamson, their leading assist man in Lonzo Ball and their leading scorer in Brandon Ingram.
The narrative all season long about the Heat is they are an awesome home team but struggle on the road. The Heat have a 13-18 road record and are just 6-10 straight up as a road underdog. Miami scores 8.6 fewer points, and allows 6.7 more points, per game on the road.
Thus, take the PELICANS (-125) on the moneyline.
New to sports betting? A successful $125 bet on the Pelicans to win outright would return a $100 profit.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Back to the home/road splits narrative, Miami bullies bad teams at home, but not so much on the road. The Heat are 5-10 against the spread against teams below .500. New Orleans gets up for quality opponents at home, going 9-7 ATS against winning teams.
However, with the spread just 1.5 (Heat +1.5, -106/Pelicans -1.5, -115) PASS ON THE SPREAD and just stick with our moneyline wager.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Heat have the highest percentage of Overs in the NBA and the Pelicans are seventh. Miami has an 8-1 Over/Under record in their last nine overall and the Over has cashed in the last three New Orleans games. When playing nonconference opponents, the Heat and the Pelicans have a combined O/U record of 28-19. New Orleans is 13-7 O/U when favored at home and Miami is 9-7 O/U as a road dog.
I slightly LEAN OVER 233.5 (-106) because the last three Heat-Pelicans games have gone Under and the market is leaning Under (-115) hence the higher vig.
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