The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers tip off Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round series Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Heat-Pacers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Heat vs. Pacers: Key injuries
Heat
- SF Derrick Jones Jr. (neck) questionable
Pacers
- PF Domantas Sabonis (foot) out
- SG Jeremy Lamb (knee) out
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Heat vs. Pacers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 110, Pacers 101
Moneyline (ML)
Indiana (+165) blasted the Heat (-200) in their final game of the regular season (in the bubble), 109-92.
It was sort of a preseason game for the two sides, who were both sitting multiple starters. Miami, in particular, was a no-show, resting SF Jimmy Butler, PG Goran Dragic and C/PF Bam Adebayo — its first-, second- and third-leading scorers. But the Heat won the other three of their previous 2019-20 meetings.
Heading into this series, the Pacers are a little more compromised from a health standpoint. Their defensive anchor, PF Domantas Sabonis, will be out this series with plantar fasciitis and the bubble breakout star, SF T.J. Warren, is also dinged up. However, Warren and the three leading scorers of the Heat are all listed probable and will be starting Game 1.
I “like” the Heat to win but will PASS ON THE MONEYLINE because it’s too expensive to bet Game 1 of a 4-5 matchup.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
This is a toss-up game and a great spread. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the Pacers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
However, on Monday, favorites were 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in Game 1’s, and Miami’s offense has been too good this season. No Sabonis equals mad question marks for Indiana’s defense. Plus, the Heat are first in the NBA at getting to the line (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) second in 3-point percentage and third in effective field goal percentage.
Call me a “nit,” but I am going to buy a whole point and BET THE HEAT -3.5 (-125) on the alternate spread. We could be in a situation where we need late free throws to push the final to a two-possession game.
Over/Under (O/U)
These teams met twice in the bubble and twice in the “regular” regular season with the meetings having a 2-2 Over/Under record. Both teams are outstanding defensive teams:
Miami is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, and Indiana is ranked sixth. They each play at a snail’s pace: Miami is 27th in pace, and Indiana is 21st. 80% of the money wagered on the Heat-Pacers total has been on the Over, and 85% of the tickets are on the Over. In other words, “sharps” and “squares” are on the same page with this one.
I’d “fade” them both and LEAN UNDER 215.5 (-110). It’s only a “lean,” though, so I am not recommending a heavy wager. New to sports betting? A $27.50 wager on Over 215.5 (-110) pays a $25 profit if the Heat-Pacers combine to score 216 total points or more.
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