Thanksgiving gatherings bring families and friends together with vibes of gratitude, but unfortunately, Thursday’s performance by the Cowboys didn’t leave many feelings of thankfulness. Although there was some early promise in the game, the Win-Probability Chart posted after the game showed that Buffalo steadily pulled away after the first quarter. With this loss, Dallas fell to .500 on the season, but Cowboys fans still found some cause for celebration as the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Miami Dolphins. Despite a 6-6 record, Dallas still holds sole possession of first place in the NFC East, and remain the most likely candidate to win the division.
Although Thanksgiving may have been unkind to Dallas, their next opponent, the Chicago Bears, had a much more joyous result. Down three points with less than seven minutes to go, Mitchell Trubisky and the offense manufactured a 90-yard drive on nine plays to score the go ahead touchdown with about two minutes remaining. For Bears fans, the offense rallying in a clutch situation was surely a welcome sight, as it’s no secret that Trubisky has struggled as a whole this year.
Comparing his 2018 and 2019 Next-Gen passing charts, we can see a stark contrast.
In 2018, a large factor in Trubisky’s success was his ability to stretch the seams of the defense. Unfortunately, he hasn’t reached that same level of success in 2019. He’s still been decent attacking the left seam, but overall, he’s had difficulty with passes over 10 yards downfield.
In addition to these differences, we also see a noticeable change in Trubisky’s utilization of his running ability.
A little over 3% of Trubisky’s 2019 dropbacks have resulted in him scrambling; that’s about half his 2018 rate. It’s hard to say whether Trubisky has simply elected to do this less, or there have been less opportunities to scramble overall. If it’s the former, it would seem prudent for him to utilize his athleticism to place a different kind of pressure on the defense.
The latter is a much more difficult fix.
Aside from Trubisky, it’s impossible to talk about the Chicago Bears and not discuss their stellar defense.
This defense has given up 31 pass plays that gained 20 yards or more, the seventh-lowest total overall. The Next-Gen chart would seem to indicate that the Bears allow a relatively-high completion percentage on passes down the middle and the right-seam, but those types of passes are hard to come by. Chicago has allowed 109 passes of 10 yards or more, sixth-fewest in the NFL. Undoubtedly, this is related to their pass-rush.
Chicago’s defense ranks in the top-6 in terms of pressure rate, despite having a blitz rate in the bottom-third of the league. A defense that can generate pressure without becoming overly reliant on extra rushers will certainly present an interesting challenge.
In any game of chance, outcomes are determined by a mixture of possibilities and probabilities, and football is no different. Dallas has certainly shown a high-ceiling at certain points, but consistency has been harder to find. Fortunately, they still control their own destiny, and it starts with a cold matchup in Chicago.
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