Entering the 2020 NFL season questions lingered regarding Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Sure, the veteran quarterback turned in a quietly efficient season last year, posting an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.25 (ninth-best in the league) while completing 70.4% of his passes (second-best in the league), but that did little to silence the critics. The Raiders signed Marcus Mariota in the offseason, a pre-draft favorite of both general manager Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden, adding to the chorus of doubters.
Perhaps an opening-week victory will quiet the critics.
Carr was efficient again on Sunday, completing 22 of 30 passes (a completion percentage of 73.3%) for 239 yards and a touchdown, without an interception. But that touchdown might go the longest way towards tamping down the criticism. One of the critiques of Carr has been his conservative nature. Sure, he completes a high percentage of passes, but when you look at either his average depth of target, or his intended air yards, Carr is one of the more conservative quarterbacks in the league. According to Next Gen Stats, Carr had an average Intended Air Yards (IAY) of just 6.3 last year, second-lowest in the league. 2018 was more of the same, when Carr’s average of 6.7 was third-lowest in the league, besting only Cody Kessler and Nick Foles.
On Sunday, Carr posted an average IAY of 5.5. Now that is again low, but that is a small sample size, and his number was higher than six other quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. So hardly a definitive answer to this question, but perhaps a step in the right direction.
That average IAY was bouyed by his one touchdown throw of the game, a deep connection with Nelson Agholor.
Facing a 3rd and 2 with two minutes remaining in the first half, the Raiders put Carr in the shotgun using 11 offensive personnel. The Panthers respond with a 4-1-6 sub package, expecting the pass. Las Vegas has three receivers to the right, and a single receiver to the left:
Bring your eyes to the top of the screen, or the right of the offensive formation. The player flexed out towards the boundary for the Raiders is tight end Darren Waller. Now, as I mentioned the Panthers have six defensive backs in the game. But one of them is safety Juston Burris.
That is who is across from Waller.
So at this point, Carr can be pretty confident that the Panthers are in some kind of man coverage, as he sees a safety, and not a cornerback flexed out towards the boundary.
That is confirmed for Carr when this happens:
Carr sees the safety trail Waller as the tight end shifts into a bunch formation on the right. At this point, Carr can be supremely confident that the Panthers are in a Cover 1 scheme. Other than the deep free safety, the reset of the defenders are down near the box. He saw a safety first start outside with Waller, and then trail him when the tight end shifted. Even the alignments of the various defenders scream man coverage.
Here is what the Raiders run on the play:
This is a route concept that you often see on Saturday afternoons, more than Sundays. The Raiders run Mesh, an Air Raid staple with the pair of crossing routes working underneath from Bryan Edwards on the left and Hunter Renfrow coming from the right. Waller bends to the outside off the snap, then works the middle of the field over the top of the mesh. Finally there is Agholor, who runs the wheel route, working vertically after bending first to the outside.
With the Panthers in Cover 1 here, the only thing Carr needs to worry about is that safety lurking in the middle of the field. Waller’s route will help hold Tre Boston in place, but Carr can use his eyes to keep him there.
Which he does:
Carr keeps his eyes trained on the safety, before hitting his drop depth and immediately flipping his field of vision and his feet to the outside to throw to Agholor. As he drops he never looks at his target, because due to the information given to him presnap he knows the coverage. There is no reason to confirm that Agholor is going to be open because Carr has all the information necessary to make this throw. So he can spend his drop keeping Boston in the middle of the field, preventing him from breaking early on the vertical route.
Here’s how that looks from the end zone angle:
Eyes trained on the safety, until the last possible second. If you’re Boston, you can’t bail the middle of the field, given how the QB is staring right through you.
But Carr knows exactly where he is going with this ball. Decisive quarterbacking leads to good results for an offense.
And perhaps some big plays downfield to silence those critics.