Tag: Greg Roman

Evaluating Justin Herbert’s fantasy football outlook

Will Herbert rebound with a new coaching staff and weaker receiving corps?

Based purely on talent, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is near the top of the heap, boasting plus athleticism, a great arm, and the confidence to attempt just about any throw. His numbers haven’t been as impressive. After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his sophomore season, the former Oregon Duck saw his output dip to 4,739 yards and 25 TDs in 2022, and then 3,134 yards with just 20 TDs last year. A

finger injury cost Herbert the final four games, but even projecting his numbers comes out to a relatively disappointing 4,098 yards and 26 TDs.

The only constant throughout Herbert’s four seasons has been change, playing under a trio of offensive coordinators (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, and Kellen Moore). That continues in 2024 as new head coach Jim Harbaugh has brought Greg Roman along as OC. On the personnel side, the standout receiver tandem of Keenan Allen (Chicago Bears) and Mike Williams (New York Jets) are both gone, as is tight end Gerald Everett (Bears).

On the field, Allen, who caught 380 passes over the last four seasons, is the biggest loss. It’s the change off it that could make an even bigger difference, however, as the tandem of Harbaugh and Roman have made no secret about their desire to control the line of scrimmage and run the football. It’s a philosophy that was driven home by the selection of offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. LA also overhauled the running back room, signing former Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards as the top two backs.

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At receiver, the Bolts will try to replace Allen and Williams with returning talent Joshua Palmer (38-581-2 in 2023) and last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnston (38-431-2), free-agent signee DJ Chark Jr. (35-525-5) with the Carolina Panthers), and second-round selection Ladd McConkey. There are some interesting names here, particularly if Johnston can develop into the player that thought they were getting with the 21st overall pick a year ago, but nobody comes with the track record of Williams, much less Allen.

Fantasy football outlook

A change in coaching, a change in offensive philosophy, and a change in personnel. Add it all up and it’s a lot to overcome for anyone, especially when you consider that Herbert has already seen his numbers trend in the wrong direction the past couple of years. That’s the glass half-empty perspective.

The optimistic viewpoint centers on Herbert’s skill set and a belief that you don’t pay a quarterback north of $50 million per season to have him throw 20 passes a game. He’s a tremendous talent, and he has shown a willingness throughout his career to target whoever is on the field in any situation, so don’t expect him to be gun shy with lesser known wideouts. Whether they can deliver is yet to be known.

While he’s best viewed as a QB2, Herbert carries viable upside. He may prove to be frustrating to play in fantasy, however.

Justin Herbert speaks on Greg Roman, new offense

Justin Herbert called Greg Roman’s scheme “difficult and complex,” but he’s become more comfortable with the playbook.

Justin Herbert is gearing up to play in his fourth offense in the five seasons he’s been in the NFL: Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, Kellen Moore and now Greg Roman.

Herbert called Roman’s scheme “difficult and complex,” but he’s continuously becoming more comfortable with the playbook.

“I’ve done a good job of getting in the playbook,” Herbert said. “As the quarterback, you have to know the ins and outs of the offense, you have to know every role, you have to know it all.

“If [someone] comes to you with a question, it’s either, ‘Here’s the answer or I’ll go find the answer for you.’ But the [coaches] in the quarterback room have done a great job supporting me and I have felt comfortable picking it up,” Herbert added.

Out of all the playcallers Herbert’s played under, Roman is the most run-heavy philosophically. That is why everyone is wondering how that’s going to work with Herbert, who is known for arm.

“Selfishly, as a quarterback, I would love to throw the ball every time and understand that we can throw the ball downfield,” Herbert said.

“But I do think that there is something to being able to do it all, to hold a defense accountable and to understand that a run game starts a pass game, and having a good pass game opens up the run game. So I think that complementary football that we always talk about, I think that’s only going to help us as an offense.”

If Herbert isn’t throwing the ball a lot in a game and it’s more predicated on the run, he’s okay with it as long as the Chargers are winning football games.

“One game, maybe we throw the ball 30 times. One game, maybe we throw it 15 times,” Herbert later added. “As long as we’re finding a way to win and being able to do both, I think we’ll be a talented and successful team.”

Herbert shared what the ultimate goal of the offense is.

“Completions, touchdowns, explosives … that’s the goal,” Herbert said.

PFF: Why Jim Harbaugh gives the Chargers reason for optimism in 2024

Jim Harbaugh is a culture changer.

Pro Football Focus’ Dalton Wasserman provided a reason to be optimistic for each team in the NFL. For the Chargers, it’s head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Here is what Wasserman had to say:

Jim Harbaugh has had one losing season as a head coach since 2009, a COVID-shortened 2020 campaign at Michigan when he went 2-4. He’s the culture changer that the Chargers needed. His influence was immediately evident in his first Chargers draft class when selecting physical players like tackle Joe Alt, linebacker Junior Colson and defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe.

Harbaugh has always emphasized the importance of running and stopping the run. His coordinators Greg Roman and Jesse Minter are fully on board with that philosophy. All of that is meant to complement Justin Herbert, who is the most talented quarterback Harbaugh has worked with since he had Andrew Luck at Stanford. With Harbaugh in charge, a turnaround in Los Angeles could come sooner than later.

There’s always plenty of hype surrounding the Chargers every year, but it feels different this time. For once, the Bolts have a coach with a winning resume at the college and NFL levels. As Wasserman said in his blurb, they have a culture changer. They haven’t had that in a long time.

If his 144-52 record in college and 49-22-1 record in the pros is any indication, Los Angeles will win a lot of games with Harbaugh at the helm, and it should start this season. I firmly believe he has the type of impact to turn this team around quickly. It’s what he does.

Harbaugh’s impact, combined with the talented Justin Herbert under center and one of the easiest schedules, gives reason to be optimistic about this upcoming season.

Projecting the Chargers’ running back depth chart in 2024

Taking a crack at projecting what the Los Angeles Chargers running back room will look like entering the 2024 season.

Over the next month ahead of training camp, I will be breaking down the depth chart for each Chargers position.

Quarterback

Next up, I project what the running backs room will look like heading into the 2024 season.

RB1: Gus Edwards

Edwards, who previously played with the Ravens for six seasons, came to Los Angeles alongside offensive coordinator Greg Roman. He played for Roman in 2019, 2020 and 2022. In those seasons, he averaged at least five yards per carry. He is coming off his most productive season as a pro, as he finished with 810 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Edwards won’t have much value as a receiver, but as long as he stays healthy then he should be a threat on the ground.

RB2: J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins reunites with his Edwards after their time in Baltimore. Injuries severely limited Dobbins following an eye-popping rookie season in 2020, when he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and totaled over 800 rushing yards. He tore his ACL and LCL and damaged his meniscus in 2021. He’s played in just nine games in the last three seasons. Expected to be fully healthy, Dobbins supplies the offense with an explosive runner who will also contribute in the passing game.

RB3: Kimani Vidal

The Chargers drafted Vidal in the sixth round of this year’s draft. Vidal was Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year and a third-team All-American in 2023 after he rushed for the second-most yards in the FBS (1,661). He left as Troy’s all-time leading rusher with 4,010 yards. Vidal has a pro-ready skillset with the explosiveness, vision, contact balance, lateral agility, and passing game impact. I have Vidal beating Isaiah Spiller for the third and final running back spot. Spiller is a practice squad candidate.

FB: Ben Mason

The Chargers signed Mason back in April. Drafted by the Ravens in the fifth-round pick of the 2021 NFL draft, Mason has only logged one career snap. During his college career at Michigan with Jim Harbaugh, Mason played a few positions but he was most effective as a fullback. He scored seven touchdowns in 2018 and was an excellent blocker in the run game. His familiarity with Roman’s offense and his blocking prowess should land him a roster spot.

Chargers’ running back room categorized as ‘work in progress’ by CBS Sports

CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan isn’t too high on the Chargers’ running back room.

The Chargers will have a new-look running back room entering the 2024 season after Austin Ekeler was the main guy the past few seasons.

Newcomers Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins headline the group, which is considered a “work in progress” by CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan, who ranked every running back room by tiers.

Here is what Sullivan wrote about Los Angeles’ backs:

The Chargers effectively adopted the Ravens backfield after signing Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in free agency. Dobbins has been plagued with injuries throughout his career, including a torn Achilles last season. Meanwhile, Edwards is a sturdy back but doesn’t have a massive ceiling.

I can’t entirely agree with Sullivan’s categorization of the Chargers’ running backs. Edwards is a proven player who is coming off a 13-touchdown season. While Dobbins has spent most of his pro career sidelined by injuries, he is a talented player who I expect to stay on the field and contribute.

Both players are familiar with Greg Roman’s offense, having played in it in Baltimore. Edwards and Dobbins’s talents, complementary skill sets, and familiarity with the system are the perfect recipe for an efficient rushing attack this season.

Also, rookie Kimani Vidal should not be forgotten. Vidal was a productive player at Troy, who possesses the explosiveness, vision, contact balance, lateral agility, and passing game impact to contribute early on in his pro career.

Projecting the Chargers’ quarterback depth chart in 2024

Predicting who will make up the Chargers’ quarterback room entering the 2024 season.

Over the next month, ahead of training camp, I will break down the depth chart for each Chargers position.

First, I project what the quarterback room will look like heading into the 2024 season.

QB1: Justin Herbert

Herbert suffered a finger injury that cost him the final four games of last season. But he should return to form, even with a new scheme, which is expected to be predicated on running the ball.

Despite the new offensive approach, Herbert is one of the most prolific passers in the NFL, and I expect the coaching staff to still play to his strengths by using his arm to distribute the wealth.

Additionally, Herbert has his quarterbacks coach back in Shane Day, who Herbert had a lot of success under in the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

As long as Herbert is under center, the sky is the limit for the Chargers.

QB2: Easton Stick

The Chargers re-signed Stick to serve as Herbert’s backup.

Stick had served as the backup with zero experience as a starter until this past season when Herbert was sidelined with his finger injury.

Stick went on to start the final four games and finished with 1,129 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception while adding 144 rushing yards and a score on 27 carries.

Misses the cut: Max Duggan

Duggan was drafted in the seventh round last year, yet he still ended up on the practice squad. I see that as the likely scenario again.

Where Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh ranks among head coaches in 2024

Touchdown Wire released their rankings of all 32 head coaches heading into the 2024 season. 

Touchdown Wire’s Jarrett Bailey released his rankings of all 32 head coaches heading into the 2024 season.

Jim Harbaugh checked in at No. 14 overall.

Harbaugh’s probably a little too low for most people, but he hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2014 and I’m still rolling my eyes at the Greg Roman hire at offensive coordinator. Will the Chargers be a complete disaster like they were with Brandon Staley? I don’t think so, but I don’t expect them to be a powerhouse all of a sudden, either.

Harbaugh has been a winner everywhere he’s coached, including at the NFL level when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012.

Harbaugh fell short in the big game, so he returned to the league to get another shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Harbaugh is bringing his old-school mindset of playing fast, physical and gritty on both sides of the ball. It has worked at all of his coaching stops, so why wouldn’t it work in Los Angeles?

With those principles paired with a talented quarterback in Justin Herbert and top-end talent on the roster, the hope is that he can achieve his goal of a Super Bowl and bring the first to the franchise.

ESPN’s FPI gives Chargers 1.1% chance of winning Super Bowl

The model isn’t too high on the Chargers.

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the Chargers a 1.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl next year and an 18.9% chance of winning the division over the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos.

However, there is hope of making the playoffs, as the model gives Los Angeles a 45% chance to play beyond the regular season.

Overall, the Bolts are 18th overall, which is ahead of the Bears and one below the Steelers.

The model isn’t particularly high on the Chargers due to losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and their defense, which ranked 29th in EPA last season. Even with the pairing of Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, it’s still below average.

I do feel like it will be a tall task to make it to the Super Bowl, let alone dethrone Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid of the AFC West title. But making the playoffs is a strong possibility, given Harbaugh taking over, the top-end talent and a relatively easy schedule.

PFF tabs Chargers’ bounce-back candidate for 2024 season

RB J.K. Dobbins was Pro Football Focus’ pick to be the Chargers’ bounce-back player for 2024 season.

The Chargers will be heavily relying on their running game this upcoming season, and running back J.K. Dobbins is one of the players who will be vital to its success.

Dobbins, who has been squandered by injuries in recent seasons, was named Pro Football Focus’ bounce-back candidate.

Dobbins was great in his two healthy seasons with the Ravens, earning rushing grades of at least 75.6 and averaging over 3.00 yards after contact per carry. However, he tore his Achilles just 12 snaps into last year and tore his ACL before even lacing up his cleats in a game in 2021.

Jim Harbaugh’s philosophy in Ann Arbor was to run the damn ball, and with the Chargers’ receiving room still lacking any proven alpha presences, that should continue in Los Angeles. Dobbins might split carries initially with his former Baltimore teammate Gus Edwards, but his better explosiveness could lend itself to a strong year for the 25-year-old in a new home.

Injuries have severely limited Dobbins following an outstanding rookie season in 2020, when he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and totaled over 800 rushing yards. In total, he’s played in just nine games in the last three seasons.

Dobbins talked about how he’s healthy and ready to dispel the injury-prone narrative. I’d expect Gus Edwards to be the Chargers’ lead back early on and for Dobbins to be brought along slowly, but it wouldn’t be surprising to take over that role in due time.

If he can stay on the field, he will supply the offense with one of the most explosive backs, with a skill set that features good elusiveness and pass-catching ability.

J.K. Dobbins fully healthy, ready to go in first season with Chargers: ‘There’ll be no setbacks’

J.K. Dobbins feels good and is ready to dispel the injury-prone label.

As part of the Chargers’ backfield reconstruction, they brought in J.K. Dobbins, who has battled the injury bug, most recently rupturing his Achilles in Week 1 last season.

But Dobbins feels good and is ready to dispel the always-injured label.

“You got the injury-prone [label] out there, but I think the storm is over with, and I think I’m going to take off now,” Dobbins said. “There’ll be no setbacks, and this injury-prone thing will be gone out the window.”

Injuries have severely limited Dobbins following an eye-popping rookie season in 2020, when he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and totaled over 800 rushing yards. He tore his ACL and LCL and damaged his meniscus in 2021.

In total, he’s played in just nine games in the last three seasons.

“I think people all around know that it’s a high-risk, high-reward type thing,'” he said. “… But I think everyone around the league knows that whenever I am on the field, the numbers don’t lie.”

When Dobbins is on the field, he is a real treat to watch, as he makes picking up yards look effortless with excellent contact balance and lateral quickness.

Dobbins reunites with former Ravens running back Gus Edwards and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

“He sticks with the run, and that’s the identity. You want an offense that has an identity,” Dobbins said. “You don’t want to be looking everywhere else to find your identity. You want to have it. And so I think this offense has that.”

Dobbins believes he is 100% healthy and ready to hit the practice field for training camp but is leaving it in the hands of the training staff.

“I think this organization is a great organization, and the training staff is great, and so they just want what’s best for me, and they’re taking care of me,” Dobbins said. “… But like I said, if it’s up to me, yeah, I’m out there.”