In a lightweight bout on the main card, Bobby Green and Thiago Moises meet at UFC on ESPN+ 39 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Green (27-10-1) is a heavy favorite over Moises (13-4) in the first bout on the main card. Physically, they’re very similar, as Green has just a one-inch height advantage and reach advantage. However, Green will throw a lot more punches, as he has a 5.13 to 2.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is ahead in landing those strikes, too, leading 51.48 to 43.62 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. While Moises does have a 1.64 to 0.36 submission average advantage, Green leads 1.53 to 1.10 in takedown average and 39.62 to 28.57 in takedown-accuracy percentage, too. However, since Moises is a strong wrestler with six submission wins and no tap out losses in 17 career fights, Green might not be as keen to get the fight to the canvas as he normally would be.
Moises is coming off a submission win over Michael Johnson on May 13 in Jacksonville, but three of his past four fights have gone the distance. However, he is just 2-2 at the UFC level, and he looked a bit overwhelmed in a UD loss to Beneil Dariush in his debut on Nov. 10, 2018, on the Korean Zombie-Rodriguez card.
As far as Green is concerned, “King” has been the top dog in unanimous decisions lately. He has three straight victories, all by UD, and each of his past six have been unanimous decisions, with four wins and a pair of setbacks. Eight straight fights for Green have gone the distance, and 11 of his past 12 have needed the judges.
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Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:04 a.m. ET.
Green (-313) is a bit of a risky pick on the 2-way fight result line. I wouldn’t like risking that kind of money for such a little return anyway, but the fact he relies upon the judges for victories is always a dangerous proposition. Sometimes they don’t always see what we see, even when it seems obvious.
The best play here is YES (-223): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? as Green just hasn’t been finishing fights inside the distance lately. It’s a better value than Over 2.5 Rounds (-250). Playing GREEN ON POINTS (-139) is also a nice play without as much risk as the two-way line, although you lose if he submits or knocks out his opponent. There is just such a strong sample size that will not be happening, however.
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Also see:
- Moises: Green can’t hang with me on the ground (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN+ 39 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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