The Golden State Warriors (27-7) travel to Salt Lake City Saturday for a 9 p.m. ET game against the Utah Jazz (26-9) at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State had its three-game winning streak snapped Tuesday with an 89-86 loss to the Denver Nuggets. The second of the back-to-back between the Warriors-Nuggets was canceled due to a COVID outbreak within Denver.
Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS, and 3-2 O/U with the 16th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-0.2 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Utah enters on a six-game winning streak (1-1-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U) with the latest being a 120-108 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on New Year’s Eve but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites.
The Jazz have the third-best non-garbage time net rating over the past two weeks at plus-8.8 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
Golden State won and covered two of three meetings with Utah last season and the Over cashed in all three Warriors-Jazz games.
Warriors at Jazz odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Jazz -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +4.5 (-105) | Jazz -4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Warriors at Jazz key injuries
Warriors
- PF Draymond Green (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out
Jazz
- SF Joel Ingles (back) probable
- PG Mike Conley (rest) probable
- C Hassan Whiteside (head) questionable
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Warriors at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 117, Warriors 110
Money line
PASS even though I think this is a trap game for the Warriors (+160) because the Jazz (-200) is just too pricey considering how well Golden State has played against the cream of the crop in the NBA.
For instance, the Warriors is 7-2 SU vs. teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating with by far the best non-garbage time net rating at plus-10.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG). The next closest team (Phoenix Suns) has a plus-3.5 points per 100 possessions adjusted net rating.
Against the spread
BET the JAZZ -4.5 (-120) because there’s a notable line freeze in the betting market and this feels like a trap game for the Warriors +4.5 (-105). First of all, all the situational trends point towards Golden State here.
But, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, an overwhelming majority of the market is betting Golden State and the line hasn’t budged off the opener.
The JAZZ -4.5 (-120) feels too big in the first place considering the Warriors have the best record in the NBA. But, it feels even fishier because all the money is coming in on Golden State yet this line isn’t moving.
Also, Utah’s non-garbage time net rating is actually 2.2 points per 100 possessions better than Golden State (CTG) and the Jazz are actually better than their record indicates. In fact, Utah ranks 26th in win differential at minus-2.4, meaning the Jazz have two fewer wins than they should.
Between Utah being the best team in the league in non-garbage time net rating and this suspect line movement, it’s JAZZ -4.5 (-120) or pass for me.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-110) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven straight Warriors-Jazz meetings and the Over has cashed in Golden State’s past four games vs. teams with a winning record.
On top of that, Utah is 13-7 O/U as a home favorite and there’s been a sharp line move towards the Over as the Warriors-Jazz total opened at 222.5 and has been steamed up to the current number.
That said, the Jazz laying the points is my favorite wager in this contest.
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