Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns odds predictions pick betting line

The top two teams in the West meet Christmas day when the Phoenix Suns (26-5) host the Golden State Warriors (26-6) at the Footprint Center. The tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has won back-to-back games entering Saturday over the Sacramento Kings 113-98 Monday and the Memphis Grizzlies 113-104 Thursday.

The Warriors are 5-2 straight-up (SU), 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 14th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (minus-0.1 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Phoenix is on a five-game winning streak with the latest being a 113-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites.

The Suns are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS and 3-3-1 O/U in the last 14 days with the second-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-15.2 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

These teams split the first two meetings of the season with the home team winning and covering both games and the Under is 2-0 in those contests. However, Golden State was at full strength for both meetings.

Warriors at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Suns -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +5.5 (-105) | Suns -5.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Warriors at Suns key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
SG Jordan Poole (health and safety protocols) out
SF Andrew Wiggins (health and safety protocols) out
SF Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) questionable
SG Klay Thompson (Achilles’) out

Suns

None.

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Warriors at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 112, Warriors 104

Money line

PASS despite Phoenix being the right side because the Suns (-240) is too expensive in this spot. I’m laying the points with Phoenix but wouldn’t be shocked if Stephen Curry erupted on Christmas even though Chris Paul is one of the better defenders of Curry in the Association (more on that below).

Against the spread

The elephant in the room here is the absence of Golden State’s second-and third-leading scorers in Poole and Wiggins.

Also, Phoenix All-Star guard Devin Booker exited the first Warriors-Suns meeting in the second quarter with a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for seven games. This was a major reason why Golden State beat the brakes off Phoenix in the second meeting just three days later.

Furthermore, as previously mentioned, CP3 has always made life difficult for Curry. In fact, Curry has scored less than 30 points in 11 straight games vs. CP3 and Paul holds a slight career-scoring edge over Curry in their 34 career head-to-head games at 21.1-20.9 points per game.

Finally, Golden State tends to be careless with the rock: Ranking 29th in offensive turnover rate and 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game. Whereas Phoenix is ball hounds: Ranking eighth in defensive turnover rate and seventh in points off of turnovers scored per game.

The bottom line is the SUNS -5.5 (-120) will be able to dictate the pace and get into their offense easier than the Warriors +5.5 (-105) because of their edge in the ball security department.

BET the SUNS -5.5 (-120) for 1 unit.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 217.5 (-108) since these teams are ranked first (Golden State) and second (Phoenix) in defensive rating and the Under has cashed four of their last five meetings.

However, both teams play at a top-10 pace, and both certainly have the offensive efficiency to push this game Over the total.

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The top two teams in the Western Conference meet Tuesday when the Golden State Warriors (18-2) face the Phoenix Suns (17-3) at Footprint Center. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Golden State has won 14 of its last 15 games and seven straight, which includes three consecutive double-digit blowouts over playoff teams from last year. The Warriors are 15-4-1 ATS and 6-14 O/U with the best net rating (plus-13.6).

Phoenix has won 16 games in a row with the last two being road victories over both New York basketball teams. The Suns are 11-9 ATS and 9-11 O/U with the third-best net rating.

These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the home team winning and covering both games and either side of the total cashing. However, G Steph Curry only suited up for the game Golden State beat Phoenix.

Warriors at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Suns -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +2.5 (-112) | Suns -2.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Warriors at Suns key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
SG Klay Thompson (knee) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Suns

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Warriors at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 116, Warriors 111

Money line

BET the SUNS (-135) since they are playing on their home floor and Phoenix has much better ball security.

For instance, G Chris Paul is a consummate floor general and the Suns are eighth in turnover rate. Poor ball security plays right into CP3’s strengths. Paul will be able to dictate the pace of this game and get his players into advantageous positions.

CP3 has also been one of the better defenders of Curry historically. Curry hasn’t scored 30 points in his last nine games against CP3 and has been held below 44.4% shooting in six of those games.

Golden State can get a little clumsy with all of its off-the-ball movement and the Warriors have the fourth-worst turnover rate in the Association. Also, Golden State is 24th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

Both teams also get out in transition at a top-eight frequency but Phoenix has better offensive and defensive efficiency in transition.

BET 1.25 units on the SUNS (-135).

Against the spread

PASS since Phoenix’s money line is only 27 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -2.5 (-108). I’m confident enough that Phoenix will win outright and don’t want to fuss with the points.

For what it’s worth, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports App, the Warriors are getting nearly 90% of the action. So, there’s a “fade the market” angle in betting the Suns.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-112) for a small wager — if at all — because I much prefer the Phoenix side more than the total in this contest. That said, both teams rank in the top-three of effective field goal shooting and like to push the pace.

My concern with the betting the Over in this game is a vast majority of the market is taking the Over and I could see CP3 slowing this game down to keep the Warriors out of rhythm.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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