The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-1) visit the FedExForum Wednesday to play the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (1-3) in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State rallied from a dismal first-half offensive performance to beat Memphis 101-98 in Monday’s Game 4. The Warriors scored just 38 first-half points and finished 9 of 37 from behind the arc.
The Grizzlies struggled in the half-court without All-Star PG Ja Morant, who will most likely miss the rest of this series with a knee injury. Memphis guards Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane scored a combined 20 points on 29.6% shooting (8 of 27).
Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Grizzlies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-105) | Grizzlies +4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (neck) out
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
Grizzlies
- PG Ja Morant (knee) out
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Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 115, Grizzlies 103
Money line
PASS because the Warriors (-175) is a little too expensive for a close-out game on the road vs. a Grizzlies (+140) team that’s shown it can play without their best player.
According to VegasInsider.com, roughly 90% of the action is on Golden State’s ML and it’s typically not profitable to follow such lopsided markets in sports betting.
But I don’t like Memphis’s chances of extending this series because the Warriors are outperforming the Grizzlies in 3 of the “4 factors” and Morant put Memphis on his back in the first 3 games of this series.
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Against the spread
LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) only because we are getting to the party a little late since Golden State opened as 3.5-point favorites (per VegasInsider.com), but have been steamed up to the current number by the market.
However, the Warriors couldn’t have played any worse in Game 4 and the Grizzlies +4.5 (-120) could only muster 98 points. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole all shot terribly in Game 4 and that won’t happen again.
Also, Golden State is outrebounding Memphis and the Grizzlies were the top rebounding team during the NBA’s regular season. The Warriors’ shooters will start cashing in on the extra possessions gained through rebounding.
Most importantly, Memphis is scoring 13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this postseason with Morant off the floor (according to CleaningTheGlass.com) and he was the best player on the floor through the first 3 games of this series.
LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) since we are getting the worst of the number.
Over/Under
PASS since my prediction aligns too closely with the market’s projected score.
If anything, I “lean” to the Under 218.5 (-110) because the Under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 Warriors-Grizzlies meetings and Memphis’s offense is greatly diminished with Morant out of the lineup.
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