Golden State Warriors odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 3

The Golden State Warriors (19-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (7-13) Saturday at Chase Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Golden State got revenge on the Phoenix Suns with a 118-96 home victory Friday after the Suns snapped the Warriors’ seven-game winning streak Tuesday. The Warriors are 16-5-1 ATS and 6-16 O/U with the top net rating in the NBA.

San Antonio has won the last three games over the Boston Celtics, Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers following a six-game losing skid. The Spurs are 11-9 ATS and 9-10-1 O/U with the 15th-best net rating.

The Warriors won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Spurs last year and the Under cashed in all three contests.

Spurs at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Spurs +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Warriors -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +8.5 (-120) | Warriors -8.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Spurs at Warriors key injuries

Spurs

SF Devin Vassell (thigh) doubtful

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (knee) doubtful

Spurs at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 110, Spurs 105

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Spurs (+310) because that’s a chunky payout and San Antonio’s spread is the side I’m on.

Maybe if I like what I’m seeing from the Spurs I’ll make an in-game wager. But, preflop, I’ll PASS.

Against the spread

GIMME the SPURS +8.5 (-120) because there are more pro-San Antonio arguments. Obviously, everyone is going to be betting on the Warriors in this game and it’s hard to blame them. But, if it were that easy everyone would be a professional sports gambler.

Furthermore, the Spurs are better than their record indicates. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, San Antonio has a minus-2.5 win differential based on net efficiency. Essentially, the Spurs should have 2.5 more wins.

Moreover, San Antonio has a winning ATS record and is 6-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Also, San Antonio is trending in the right direction.

Over the past two weeks, the Spurs are 3-2 overall with the eighth-best efficiency differential (plus-5.5) and the second-best ATS margin (plus-11.2), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

In addition, could this be a letdown game for Golden State? Because the Warriors just played a back-to-back miniseries with the second-best team in the West.

And Golden State’s previous three games were against playoff teams from last season. On the other hand, I’m assuming the Spurs will have peak motivation for their meeting with the best team in the NBA.

The SPURS +8.5 (-120) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

BET a small wager on the UNDER 217.5 (-107) for some trendy reasons and betting market rationale.

First of all, the Spurs are 1-8-1 O/U with a minus-13.4 margin vs. the total and the Warriors are 4-9 O/U with a minus-4.4 margin vs. the total. On top of that, we are seeing “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Under’s direction.

According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports App, a vast majority of the action is on the Over. But, oddsmakers have lowered the total from 219.5 on the lookahead line down to the current number.

It’s a red flag whenever see sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper. That gives off a trap game vibe. Let’s fade the market movement and BET UNDER 217.5 (-107).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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The top two teams in the Western Conference meet Tuesday when the Golden State Warriors (18-2) face the Phoenix Suns (17-3) at Footprint Center. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Golden State has won 14 of its last 15 games and seven straight, which includes three consecutive double-digit blowouts over playoff teams from last year. The Warriors are 15-4-1 ATS and 6-14 O/U with the best net rating (plus-13.6).

Phoenix has won 16 games in a row with the last two being road victories over both New York basketball teams. The Suns are 11-9 ATS and 9-11 O/U with the third-best net rating.

These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the home team winning and covering both games and either side of the total cashing. However, G Steph Curry only suited up for the game Golden State beat Phoenix.

Warriors at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Suns -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +2.5 (-112) | Suns -2.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Warriors at Suns key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
SG Klay Thompson (knee) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Suns

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Warriors at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 116, Warriors 111

Money line

BET the SUNS (-135) since they are playing on their home floor and Phoenix has much better ball security.

For instance, G Chris Paul is a consummate floor general and the Suns are eighth in turnover rate. Poor ball security plays right into CP3’s strengths. Paul will be able to dictate the pace of this game and get his players into advantageous positions.

CP3 has also been one of the better defenders of Curry historically. Curry hasn’t scored 30 points in his last nine games against CP3 and has been held below 44.4% shooting in six of those games.

Golden State can get a little clumsy with all of its off-the-ball movement and the Warriors have the fourth-worst turnover rate in the Association. Also, Golden State is 24th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

Both teams also get out in transition at a top-eight frequency but Phoenix has better offensive and defensive efficiency in transition.

BET 1.25 units on the SUNS (-135).

Against the spread

PASS since Phoenix’s money line is only 27 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -2.5 (-108). I’m confident enough that Phoenix will win outright and don’t want to fuss with the points.

For what it’s worth, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports App, the Warriors are getting nearly 90% of the action. So, there’s a “fade the market” angle in betting the Suns.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-112) for a small wager — if at all — because I much prefer the Phoenix side more than the total in this contest. That said, both teams rank in the top-three of effective field goal shooting and like to push the pace.

My concern with the betting the Over in this game is a vast majority of the market is taking the Over and I could see CP3 slowing this game down to keep the Warriors out of rhythm.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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