In a welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 40 — also known as UFC Vegas 59 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Luque takes the walk to the octagon looking for redemption after suffering a unanimous-decision (UD) loss to Belal Muhammad in mid-April in a rematch of their epic UFC 205 bout which went in favor of the Brazilian. Perhaps a win here sets up a trilogy matchup.
Not only did Luque lose last time out, but it was the first time in 5 outings he failed to record a stoppage, too. His previous 4 bouts resulted in a pair of submission wins, a KO/TKO of Randy Brown, and a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage against Niko Price at UFC 249.
The 31-year-old Neal looks to build upon a split-decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out at UFC 269, halting a 2-bout losing skid in the process. His last 3 bouts have gone the distance, going 1-2 with a pair of UD setbacks to Neil Magny and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.
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UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Luque -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Neal +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Total rounds: Over 2.5 (+102) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+105) | No (-145)
[tipico]
UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal picks and predictions
Records: Luque (21-8-1) | Neal (14-4-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Luque (-205) is a little on the pricey side, costing you over 2 times your potential return. Instead, let’s dig a little deeper and figure out a more cost-effective strategy.
The Brazilian fighter has had 21 of his 30 career pro bouts finish inside the distance. However, he went the distance last time out, and Neal has needed the judges to decide his fate in each of his last 3 trips to the octagon.
As such, play LUQUE BY POINTS (+255) for a much nicer value.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+105): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play here. While yes, Luque has ended up needing the judges to get involved in just 1 of his past 5 outings, he has gone the distance in 3 of the previous 7 bouts.
For Neal, he hasn’t had a stoppage in the past 3 fights, while going the distance in 4 of his past 6 bouts, too.
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