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The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1, 1-0 Mountain West) and UNLV Rebels (3-0, 0-0) will lock horns and match wits in Saturday Mountain West Conference action in Las Vegas. Kick time at Allegiant Stadium will be 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Fresno State vs. UNLV odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Fresno State defeated New Mexico 38-21 last week, marking the Bulldogs’ 3rd straight win since opening with a loss at current-No. 12 Michigan. FSU was outgained by more than 100 yards in the win over the Lobos. The Bulldogs were a plus-2 in turnovers, and UNM was tagged with 17 penalties.
UNLV is No. 23 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Rebels have been solid in the ground game, averaging 293.3 rushing yards per game. On defense, Nevada-Las Vegas has allowed just 41 points in 3 games. The Rebels head into this contest off a bye week.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Fresno State at UNLV odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Fresno State +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | UNLV -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Fresno State +2.5 (-110) | UNLV -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Fresno State at UNLV picks and predictions
Prediction
Fresno State 31, UNLV 24
Moneyline
Fresno (+110) is the lean, but the 2.5 points makes the ATS action a better value. PASS.
Against the spread
Nevada-Las Vegas has not beaten Fresno State since 2017; the Bulldogs have won 6 straight since.
UNLV starting QB Matthew Sluka left the program over an NIL dispute, and several other UNLV players have indicated a desire to redshirt with the thought of transferring. So, the Rebels — who now insert former FCS Campbell signal-caller Hajj-Malik Williams at QB — are dealing with some off-the-field havoc here in Week 5. Williams may actually improve the UNLV passing game, but Sluka exits as the Rebels’ leading rusher.
Fresno State’s offense can sling it around. The Bulldogs’ 272.2 yards per game rank 36th in FBS. And FSU is likely facing a Las Vegas defense that is worse against the pass than what shows in surface numbers. And overall, the UNLV defense has its numbers pumped up a bit by 2 games in which UNLV allowed fewer than 60 snaps. Look for FSU to stay on schedule with its aerial game.
The Rebels have a Sept. 13 win at Kansas that, while an impressive performance in general, does not really hold up to advanced-stats scrutiny. The Jayhawks were undone by 90 yards in penalties and a minus-2 in turnovers.
Peg UNLV as being over-bet in this spot. BACK FRESNO STATE +2.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Last year’s meeting, a 31-24 FSU triumph, edged the Under 55.5, breaking a 4-year Over streak for the series.
Expect some game-flow point spiral here. UNLV’s passing attack could well get an uptick from the unexpected change at quarterback. The Bulldogs have logged some shaky 3rd-and-4th-down numbers that don’t jibe with early-down proficiency.
Red-zone trips will loom large, but the Over is the value side of this contest. FanDuel Sportsbook has more of a leverage tag here: BET OVER 49.5 (-115).
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