The Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 7-1 MWC) travel to Boise Saturday to take on the Boise State Broncos (9-3, 8-0) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kickoff on the Smurf Turf is at 4 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Fresno State vs. Boise State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Both teams got off to slow starts this season before finishing strong.
Boise State, after a loss to UTEP left it 2-2, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and QB Hank Bachmeier followed him out the door when he decided to transfer mid-season. The Broncos went 7-1 after the changes, the only blemish a 31-28 non-conference loss to BYU. The Broncos scored 34.6 points per game in conference while allowing just 14.25 points.
Fresno State, under new/old coach Jeff Tedford, made it back to the MWC title game despite a 1-4 start. The Bulldogs have won 7 straight conference games, averaging 34.1 points and allowing just 18.
This is a rematch of an early season game. The only loss in conference for Fresno State was 40-20 to Boise State on Oct. 8. The Broncos were 10.5-point favorites in that game. The spread is not as high in this game and both teams are different then they were in that game.
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Fresno State at Boise State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:22 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Fresno State +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Boise State -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Fresno State +3 (-102) | Boise State -3 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Auburn at Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Boise State 33, Fresno State 26
Moneyline
LEAN BOISE STATE -160.
This is just a lean as I like Boise State ATS in this game. If you are hesitant to take the spread though, -160 is not too out of line to make a wager and it is a nice addition to a parlay also.
Against the spread
BET BOISE STATE -3 (-118).
If you wager on the ML, do not also wager on this line. But I like this line and think the Broncos will win by more than this number.
The Mountain West, as a smaller conference, plays its championship game at the higher-seeded home field. That makes this a true advantage for Boise State in this game. This also shows that Vegas thinks these teams are about even on a neutral site. I do not agree. Boise State -3 (-118) is my favorite play.
Over/Under
BET OVER 54.5 (-111)
Both teams have allowed under 18 points per game in conference this season. But in the last meeting between the teams this season, the Broncos scored 40 and the Bulldogs got to 20. This would be well over the number of 54.5 given here. While both defenses have gotten better, so have both offenses and this number seems a few points too low. If it stays Under 55, I still like it. Once it hits 56, I would stay away or play the Under.
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