Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Prediction

Fresno travels to Viejas looking to finish with a top 5 seed in the conference.

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WHO: Fresno St. Bulldogs (18-10) Vs  San Diego St. Aztecs (19-7)

When: Thursday, MArch 3rd, 11:00PM ET/ 8:00 PM PT

Where: San Diego, Ca

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

The Aztecs and Bulldogs meet for the second time this season with different goals in mind. The Aztecs, fresh off a victory against Wyoming, need to keep winning to cement their at-large resume. They should be in at this point, but a loss or two may drop them out.

Fresno St. does not have a chance at an at-large bid, meaning their only hope to go dancing is by winning the conference tournament. They are currently in 6th place in the conference standings. No team outside of the top five has ever won the tournament under the current format. The prospect of winning four games in four days is too much when the top five only need to win three games in three days. Beating SDSU would really help their chances of finishing in the top five.

They also want to redeem themselves after losing to SDSU at home by 15 points. The Bulldogs only scored 44 points in that game, and nba prospect Orlando Robinson was held to 9 points and 4 turnovers. He will need to have a better game if the Bulldogs hope to win. Isaiah Hill had 15, but some of those were garbage time 3-pointers.

The Bulldogs are on a two game win streak after beating Air Force and New Mexico. Robinson scored 28 against the Lobos and hit a couple shots from deep.

The Aztecs are in typical late year form. They went 7-2 in the month of February, and the two losses were both on the road by a combined two points. In thier last game they beat Wyoming in Laramie. They are the only team to beat Wyoming in Laramie this season. Matt Bradley had 30 points and 4 assists, and Trey Pulliam is looking like the player he was in the conference tournament last year (the one who should’ve won tournament MVP.)

Nathan Mensah is also showing why he should be the Defensive Player of the Year. He held Graham Ike to ten points on 33% shooting from the floor.

The Aztecs are 7 point favorites in this game according to KenPom.

Keys for SDSU- The Aztecs will need to continue to play their physical brand of defense. They had a lot of success double teaming Robinson in the post, and should continue to do that until he shows he can beat it.

They also need to continue playing in the rhythm of their offense. Matt Bradley has been playing far less isolation basketball, instead getting everyone involved with his passing. His teammates have responded. As he continues to do that the offense will continue to improve.

Keys for Fresno State – Everything starts with Robinson. He needs to protect the rim and help force tough midrange shots. Offensively he needs to read the double team and kick out to open shooters. If he is not doubled teamed he needs to find a way to score.

His teammates need to pick up some slack too. They need to hit the outside shots to spread out the Aztecs defense in order to give Robinson the room he needs to operate inside.

Predictions – The Bulldogs will come out swinging and build an early lead. After the first ten minutes the Aztecs will settle into the game and retake the lead. They won by fifteen on the road, so winning at home should not be too much of a problem.

Prediction – 66-56 Aztecs

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San Diego State. vs Boise State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Prediction

Two of th ebest defenses in the nation get ready for a rock fight.

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WHO: San Diego St. Aztecs (17-6) Vs  Boise St. Broncos (21-6)

When: Tuesday, February 22nd, 9:00PM ET/ 6:00 PM PT

Where: Boise, Id

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

These two teams met exactly one month ago. It was a trying game for both teams. The Aztecs were playing their first game since ending their Covid pause, and the Broncos were playing their third game in five days. The results showed on the scoreboard.

The final score was 42-37 in favor of the Broncos. The Aztecs scored just one point in the first 10 minutes of the second half before holding Boise St. scoreless for the next 9 minutes and taking a one point lead. At that point Marcus Shaver did his thing and sealed the game for Boise St.

The score was in part to having two top-11 defenses on the floor. The Aztecs rank first in the nation in adjusted defense, the Broncos rank 11th. Even after accounting for that though, it was the worst offensive performance by the Aztecs since before 2008. For Boise St. it was their second worst offensive performance of the season.

Things have changed since then. The Broncos are on a two game winning streak, not an eleven game winning streak, and they lsot at home to Colorado St. less than ten days ago. The Aztecs are on a five game winning streak, and for the first time all season their offense seems to be clicking. Their last three games are the three best offensive games they’ve played this season. They seem to be finding their stride at the right time.

The game will also be played in Boise, where the Broncos have a 5-4 record advantage over the Aztecs since joining the Mountian West.

The game will likely be another low scoring one. Both teams are among the best in the nation defensively, and neither are among the top-100 teams offensively.

With all the focus on defense, any player that can reliably score will really benefit their team.

The Aztecs have Matt Bradley, the Transfer from Cal who is averaging 19 points per game in conference play. He only scored two in the Aztecs last game against Fresno St, as he was double teamed almost instantly after touching the ball. He responded by collecting four assists to help the Aztecs win. Boise will need to decide if they want to play Bradley straight up or double him and force other players to score.

The other player to look for offensively is Chad Baker-Mazara. The 6’7″ transfer from Duquesne is averaging 8.5 points per game in conference play, but just put up 20 on Fresno St. When he is in his groove he is one of the better offensive players for SDSU.

The Broncos have a much more balanced attack, having four players that average over ten points a game but none that average more than fifteen. Freshman Tyson Degenhart is the favorite for conference freshman of the year, and is scoring 12.1 points while shooting 45% from deep in conference play.

The player the Bronces turn to in crunch time is the same one that broke Aztecs’ fans hearts a month ago. Marcus Shaver has made a name for himself by hitting clutch shots this season. Shaver is scoring 14.3 points per game in conference and is a threat to score from anywhere.

The Broncos are 3 point favorites in this game according to KenPom.

Keys for SDSU- The Aztecs will need to continue to play their physical brand of defense. They have shown they have the depth to do it, as DPOY favorite Nathan Mensah got into foul trouble early against Fresno St, but backups Tahirou Diabate and Joshua Tomaic were able to keep Orlando Robinson in check. The same goes for their guards. Play physical and don’t be too afraid to foul, as Boise St. is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation.

The Aztecs also need to control the paint on both ends of the floor. Their Big-to-Big passing has been working the last few games, and has helped Keshad Johnson score in double digits for three games in a row. Controlling the paint on both ends will help the Aztecs score and limit Boise State’s scoring as well.

Keys for Boise State – The first key for the Broncos will be to guard Matt Bradley without double teaming him. Emmanuel Akot did a great job of that in the first matchup, as he was able to disturb Bradley with his length and athleticism. Lately Bradley has been seeing more double teams and collecting a lot of assists as a result. Guarding him with one player will help stagnate the rest of the offense as he isolates, and Akot is the ideal player for the job.

The Broncos will also want to use thier size to control the glass. The Broncos have one of the biggest teams in the nation, with four starters being 6’7″ or taller. Ending possessions and getting second chances on offense will go a long way.

Predictions – Boise St. is playing at home where they have historically pkayed much better against the Aztecs. That being said, the Aztecs have shown that holding Boise to 42 points wasn’t a fluke. They held a comparable Fresno St. offense to just 44. There is a reason the Aztecs are the number one defense in the nation. The offense has also found a groove lately and should play much better than the first meeting. The Broncos home crowd will help keep it close, but the Aztecs will continue their win streak to come away with this one.

Prediction – 64-56 Aztecs

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San Diego State. vs Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Prediction

Two of the best defenses in the conference (and the nation) face off with a top 5 finish on the line.

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WHO: San Diego St. Aztecs (16-6) Vs  Fresno St. Bulldogs

When: Saturday, February 19th, 10:00PM ET/ 7:00 PM PT

Where: Fresno, Ca

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial

San Diego State hits the road hoping to gain just their third quad 1 victory on the season. Playing on the road has been a struggle for this seasons’ Aztecs team, as they are 2-4 in true road games. On the line is a chance to improvise the resume by getting a strong road win against a good Fresno St. team and extending their win streak to five games.

The Bulldogs have lost three in a row, including a bad loss at home against UNLV. Their at-large chances are all but gone. Their hope is to get on a hot streak to finish the season and try and get the auto bid by winning the conference tournament.

They can do it too. Anchored by the 25th best defense in the nation, and having a future pro in big man Orlando Robinson, Fresno St. is a team no one would want to face if they get on a hot streak.

Orlando Robinson is averaging 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Those marks are good for sixth and fifth in the conference, respectively. Robinson is a modern big man who can score in the old fashioned way, pass out of double teams, or pull his defender out to the perimeter where he is a 32% shooter from behind the arc. Robinson currently ransom5th in the nation in KenPom’s national player of the year rankings.

Robinson is flanked by Isaiah Hill, who averages ten points and three assists per game. Hill has a solid outside stroke but has struggled to finish inside the arc this season.

The Aztecs are led by Matt Bradley, who is averaging 20.5 points and 6 rebounds in conference play, on a 49/52/82 shooting line. He has carried the Aztecs offensively for much of the season, and will likely need to again going against a stout Fresno St. defense.

The Aztecs haven’t had much offense outside of Bradley, but the key to their defense is Nathan Mensah. The 6’10” big man leads the conference in blocks at 2.1 per game, and is quick enough to switch into opposing point guards as well as protect the paint.

The coaching staffs are also very familiar with each other. Justin Hutson was an assistant to Brian Dutcher back in 2018, and both coaches were assistants under Steve Fisher for many years.

The Bulldogs are 2 point favorites in this game according to KenPom.

Keys for SDSU- The Aztecs will need to rely on their #1 ranked defense and make Orlando Robinson work for anything he gets, and do so without fouling.

The Aztecs will also need to find a second scorer besides Matt Bradley. Against Utah St both Keshad Johnson and Adam Seiko stepped up. The Aztecs will need similar production from someone on the roster to help lift them over the Bulldogs 25th ranked defense.

Keys for Fresno State – The Bulldogs will want to protect the paint. The Aztecs are one of the most midrange focused teams in the nation. The Bulldogs will want to live with that but not give up easy layups or dunks. Along those lines they need to protect the ball. The Aztecs defense is very aggressive in forcing turnovers so they can get easy points in transition. Protecting the ball and getting back in transition will really slow the Aztecs offense down.

Predictions – The Aztecs offense has slowed them down all season, but they are on a four game stretch of average or better offense, and that trend will continue against Fresno St. The Bulldogs will come out swinging, making seemingly every basket to start the game, but as players settle down the Aztecs will take and hold the lead.

Prediction – 64-60 Aztecs

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