The 49ers swung the momentum of Super Bowl 54 thanks to a Fred Warner interception of Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers defense got a huge stop to start their second half. Patrick Mahomes was stripped by Nick Bosa on a second down, but recovered his own fumble to set up a third-and-12.
Mahomes rolled right and fired down field, right to 49ers linebacker Fred Warner.
The 49ers come into Super Bowl LIV with a championship-level defense. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to contain Patrick Mahomes.
MIAMI — The 2019 San Francisco 49ers defense dealt with a late-season wobble due to injuries to key players Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt and has come back recently to retain its status as one of the best defenses in the NFL. Only the Patriots had a better Defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metric) than the 49ers, and neither the Vikings nor the Packers had much of an answer for them in the playoffs.
It’s a significant strength coming into Super Bowl LIV. The problem is, San Francisco’s significant strength is about to run into the Chiefs’ overwhelming strength, which is their offense when Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The reigning NFL MVP worked through knee and hand injuries this season, but recent games have shown a relatively clean bill of health for Mahomes the thrower and Mahomes the runner, and that’s a rather glaring problem for 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and his crew, no matter how good they have been.
The respect San Francisco holds for Mahomes is evident and well-deserved.
“One, his mobility is unique,” Saleh recently said when asked to analyze what makes Mahomes so formidable. “His arm strength is ridiculous. He’s very, very accurate. But, what I don’t think people give him enough credit for is that he actually plays quarterback. There’s a lot of people, there’s a lot of quarterbacks in this league that will say no to number one [the first progression] and then it just becomes street ball. He gets rid of the ball on time. He puts it where it needs to be. He hits a lot of throws in rhythm. And when he needs to take his shot, he knows how to buy time in the pocket and do it. So, he’s a superstar in every way you can possibly imagine and he’s going to be tough to deal with.”
And then, there’s the matter of Mahomes’ receivers — Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and tight end Travis Kelce. In a word, yikes.
“They’re, at every position, it almost looks like they got their roster from the Olympic relay team and threw them all on the football field,” Saleh said. “Not to say they can’t run routes and catch either, because they can do that. They’re a special group and you can see why they’re there.”
Understanding the challenge is one thing. Dealing with it is another. The combination of Mahomes’ acumen and the ridiculous speed and synchronization of his receivers make Mahomes the most terrifying deep thrower in the NFL. Through the 2019 regular season and postseason, per Pro Football Focus, Mahomes has attempted just 69 passes of 20 or more air yards (Aaron Rodgers has led the league with 101), but he’s completed 36 of them for 1,275 yards, a league-leading 15 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and a league-leading passer rating of 125.2.
This is not great news for San Francisco’s pass defense, which fared pretty well on Richard Sherman’s left side in DVOA against deep passes, ranking seventh in the league, but was average elsewhere. This defense ranked 21st against deep passes over the middle, and 15th to the right. Dealing with Mahomes’ deep ball and his deep receivers is a challenge every defense eventually faces, and now, it’s San Francisco’s turn.
But wait… there’s more. Much more. Basically, Patrick Mahomes is a modern-day defensive nightmare.
Playing against Mahomes is a bit like hanging on to a tiger by the tail — it’s dangerous when you engage, and fatal when you let go. The Texans found that out in the wild-card round of the playoffs when they put up a 24-0 lead on the Chiefs, only to watch Mahomes and that offense score touchdowns on seven straight drives on the way to a 51-31 win. Mahomes threw five touchdown passes in that game, tight end Travis Kelce caught three of them, and Houston’s no-matter-what strategy of playing man coverage was exposed as a fool’s errand.
Not that the 49ers play a lot of man defense; in the 2019 season, they did so on just 61 targets, allowing 47 completions for 638 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. San Francisco plays mostly iterations of zone defense led by pressure from a voluminous front four, speed linebackers Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner, and a great secondary when everyone’s healthy and the right people are in.
But against Cover-3 and Cover-4, San Francisco’s two primary coverages this season, Per Sports Info Solutions, Mahomes has completed 33 of 47 passes of 15 air yards or more for 1,036 yards, 795 air yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 143.4. The 49ers defended 379 catchable targets in the regular season; 196 were in either Cover-3 (114) or Cover-4 (82). And when defending passing attempts of 15 or more air yards this season in those two coverages, the 49ers allowed 21 completions on 37 attempts for 492 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The deep ball could be a problem for Richard Sherman and his friends.
This is not a strength-against-strength battle for the 49ers, though replacing cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon with Emmanuel Moseley has really worked well in the playoffs. In two postseason games, Moseley has allowed six catches on 11 targets for 58 yards, 29 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 31.6. Last time Mahomes faced a secondary this statistically formidable, it was last December 8 against New England, when he completed 26 of 40 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a 23-16 win for the Chiefs. The Patriots play man coverage at the league’s highest rate, but they also have the best overall secondary from a talent-to-scheme perspective.
Bottom line, there isn’t a schematic edge to be gained when you’re facing Mahomes. You must play sound coverage at every level, and you must know who to double when. Sometimes it means doubling tight end Travis Kelce; other times, it could mean throwing a bracket at Tyreek Hill on a vertical route. But you have to have answers for those two, as well as receivers Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. In 2019, Kansas City put three receivers and a tight end on the field on 359 of Mahomes’ dropbacks — he attempted 332 passes, completing 220 for 2,896 yards, 1,421 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Okay, you say — just get some heat on him with that great 49ers front four, and it’s all good. Well, not so much. In the 2019 regular season and postseason, including the games he played in which he had lower-body injuries and really couldn’t break the pocket as he’d like to, Mahomes completed 71 of 145 passes for 1,057 yards, a league-leading 12 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. And if you’re thinking of blitzing him — well, don’t. That takes a defender out of coverage, and that’s when Mahomes really gets going. Against the blitz this season, he’s completed 62 of 92 passes for 805 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Here in Week 14, New England gets pressure up the middle, but it doesn’t matter. Mahomes just side-steps it, waits for Hardman to scald the one-on-one coverage, and does his thing downfield. It’s an underthrow, but as Hardman is in the next county by the time the ball comes down, that doesn’t really matter.
So, how to stop Mahomes, or at least slow him down? Sending as many defenders into coverage as possible is one way to go.
The Lions, for all their failures in the 2019 season, did a pretty decent job of limiting explosive plays from the Chiefs in a 34-30 Week 4 loss — and they did it without cornerback Darius Slay, who missed the game with a hamstring injury, and safety Quandre Diggs, who suffered his own hamstring injury in the first half. Mahomes completed 24 of 42 passes for 315 yards, but he also didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time in a 14-game stretch, one short of the NFL record set by Peyton Manning. In that game, the Lions endeavored to double both Watkins and Kelce. They totaled 71 snaps in the slot from their cornerbacks, linebackers, and safeties. Detroit’s defenders had the athleticism to delay Mahomes’ reads, bump and constrict receiver freedom through the routes, and clamp down when the ball came down in potential big-play situations.
The problem with using the Detroit game as a model for the Super Bowl is that Tyreek Hill was also out of that game with a broken clavicle he suffered in Week 1 against the Jaguars. When Hill’s in there, taking one of your safeties and maybe your slot cornerback downtown on every play, it adds some complexity to the recipe.
That said, Detroit did present a favorable paradigm by playing a lot of aggressive coverage looks at the line, and added some pattern-reading principles to best follow Mahomes’ targets through their routes. The Lions also got to their coverage spots with a delay at times, perhaps to limit the amount of time Mahomes had to diagnose who was covering who. Of course, with all those rushing lanes opened through coverage, Mahomes was able to run, which he did for what was then a career high of 54 yards.
And if the 49ers want to run a ton of nickel against this offense, they should go with the feeling. Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander are quality coverage linebackers, and in K’Waun Williams, San Francisco has a great slot defender. From the slot this season, Williams has allowed 48 catches on 66 targets for 375 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 73.7.
Watch the way he reads Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph in Week 3 as Rudolph breaks the pocket and tries to hit receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster on a mobile option route. The result? An interception.
The ability to spy the quarterback as he extends the play and jump the throw in time could be a somewhat valuable asset against Mahomes.
Different kinds of pattern-matching and pattern-reading have been as close to Kryptonite as anything in Mahomes’ NFL career. The Broncos confounded him in 2018 with different match blitzes that proved effective. But Mahomes sees the field more effectively now, and he’s better at taking apart coverages, especially disguised coverages. There’s also a legitimate question about the 49ers’ ability to deal with the Chiefs’ receiver speed in anything approaching man or match coverage.
In the AFC Championship game, the Titans tried a different approach with three-man rushes, putting eight in coverage at times, only to see Mahomes run eight times for 53 yards and one amazing touchdown.
Mahomes also completed 23 of 35 passes for 294 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. With that, another conclusion becomes clear: Blitz Mahomes, and he’ll kill you. Drop eight, and he’ll kill you. Fun!
“When you have all these weapons, and you only bring a three-man rush, it gives me room to run it,” Mahomes said after the game. “I love being here with this team, and all these guys make things a lot easier.”
Finding ways to stop Patrick Mahomes at this point in the season is like being asked to build a perfect weapon with a bunch of stuff from the junk drawer in your kitchen. No matter how good your defense is, the options are limited. If Saleh can pull off a MacGyver and actually create the perfect beast in Super Bowl LIV, he’ll have done more than most defensive coordinators have managed — and he’ll most likely be rewarded with a Lombardi Trophy.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander and Dre Greenlaw could be major difference makers in coverage in the 2020 Super Bowl.
The Chiefs’ team speed elevates them to an exceptionally dangerous level on offense. Behind head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City’s offense is designed to create and exploit mismatches with their gaggle of explosive athletes on the perimeter.
San Francisco’s defense may be more well-equipped than most to handle some of those playmakers quarterback Patrick Mahomes has so much success getting the ball to.
While the talk of the 49ers defense is their defensive line, the linebacking corps behind them could become the story Sunday. Part of the way Kansas City gashes teams is by getting their wide receivers, who all run 4.3ish in the 40-yard dash, matched up with linebackers in coverage. Most linebackers in the NFL aren’t built to run with those pass catchers. The 49ers group might be just athletic enough to hang with them.
Here’s how dominant the trio of Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander and Dre Greenlaw were in coverage this year:
All three of the 49ers linebackers are top 15 in coverage grade among LBs with at least 30 targets (including playoffs)
The key isn’t so much keeping up with those receivers in a foot race. There aren’t many players in the league able to do that. However, they are athletic enough to stay stuck to those receivers long enough to make a play if the pass rush gets home. Two or three steps of tight coverage could be the difference between an incompletion and a touchdown.
They’ll also get plenty of matchups on tight end Travis Kelce, who is as good a pass catcher as there is at his position. While safeties and cornerbacks will get matched up on Kelce, the linebacking trio will have to run with him in the middle of the field.
Kansas City’s offense is a different animal for a defense, and it’s not necessarily going to be easy for the 49ers. However, if they can utilize their speed in the second level to eliminate some easy throws and swarm to the football when passes are completed underneath, they may be able to take away some easy completions for Mahomes and at least make his life a little more difficult.
Every Super Bowl has the potential for unheralded players to shine. Here are six such players who could make an impact in Super Bowl LIV.
MIAMI — One thing you learn when you cover enough Super Bowls is that no matter how unheralded a player may be coming into the week, there’s always a story to tell, and somebody who would like to hear it. But that’s for the 6,000 or so media members credentialed for the event.
When it comes to game time this Sunday, and Super Bowl LIV kicks off, there are players on both teams — the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers — who may not be known to the general public, but who are ready to make serious contributions to their teams efforts. So, let’s go under the hood of these two rosters and reveal three players for each team whose performances this season should not go unnoticed any longer.
Here are the secret superstars of Super Bowl LIV, with thoughts on all six players from teammates and opponents.
With just four teams remaining, here’s one thing each of these teams must do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Losing in any elimination game gives you the entire offseason to think about the things you should have done. For the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers, there’s still that one last hope for the Super Bowl that no other team still has this season. The AFC and NFC Championship game entrants have faced off in the regular season already.
In Week 10, the Titans came back from a 10-0 Chiefs lead, and Patrick Mahomes’ three-touchdown performance, to beat Kansas City 35-32. Ryan Tannehill, still in his first few games as Marcus Mariota’s replacement, threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left in regulation, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed a potential game-tying 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. At least the Chiefs can say they were in that game.
The Packers, not so much. In Week 12, the 49ers beat the daylights out of Green Bay, 37-8. Aaron Rodgers averaged 3.15 yards per completion when he was able to throw the ball, the Packers went 1-for-15 on third down, and a defense that had been relatively on point allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to look like Joe Montana.
Still, the good news for both losing teams in this instance is that neither the Chiefs nor the Packers have lost a single game since those particular defeats. Mahomes seems to have recovered from his in-season injuries, Green Bay’s passing offense is more explosive, Kansas City’s defense is far better than it used to be, and the Packers’ coverage units seem to have recovered from what 49ers head coach and play-designer Kyle Shanahan did to them.
So, if we take the conference title games as new entities (as we should) while attempting to learn from the past, here’s one thing each of the remaining teams should do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Luke Kuechly’s greatness wasn’t lost on 49ers LB Fred Warner.
Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly’s retirement at 28-years-old sent a ripple effect through the league that reached as far west as San Francisco.
Kuechly was arguably the best player at his position every year he was in the league. The 49ers have an up and coming superstar at linebacker as well in Fred Warner.
The gravity of the five-time All-Pro’s sudden retirement after eight seasons wasn’t lost on Warner, who’s playing in his first postseason in his second year in the league.
He told Cam Inman of the Bay Area News Group that Kuechly was one of the players he emulated when learning the position.
“Luke’s one of the best to ever do it,” Warner said via Inman’s Twitter account. “It’s a pretty big shock to me. It’s a guy I studied closely. My hats off to him.”
The 49ers would be exceptionally lucky if Warner reached Kuechly’s level. Kuechly was a seven-time Pro Bowler and five-time All-Pro in eight seasons, and was regularly one of the best players in the league against the run and in coverage. He amassed 1,092 tackles, 12.5 sacks 66 pass breakups and 18 interceptions in 118 games in the NFL.
Warner is on his way to reaching elite status thanks to his ability to be effective on the ground and through the air. However, he’s yet to make a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team, so he has a ways to go to match the Panthers legend. It’s a good track to be on though, and if Warner even comes close to Kuechly’s level of production, the 49ers defense will be very good for a long time.
The latest entry in the New Orleans Saints’ exhaustive feud with NFL officiating chief Al Riveron sprung from a game they didn’t even play.
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Stop reading if you’ve heard this before, but the NFL’s over-complicated officiating process made the New Orleans Saints draw the short straw. The Saints needed the Seattle Seahawks to defeat the San Francisco 49ers so that New Orleans could clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs, and they nearly got it when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson targeted tight end Jacob Hollister in the end zone. But Hollister’s arm was trapped by 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, and the pass fell incomplete. No penalty flags for defensive pass interference followed it.
And the officiating crew on-hand didn’t stop the game to review what happened. Neither did NFL officiating czar Al Riveron call in from his New York office, as he is supposed to do following offseason rules changes. The league instituted these changes after Riveron botched last year’s NFC championship game non-call between the Saints and Los Angeles Rams, and he didn’t learn anything from an experience that should have cost him his job.
If a flag had been thrown, the Seahawks would have had time to run another play or two from near the goal-line, potentially giving them the lead as time expired. Instead, they ended up turning it over on downs, and the 49ers won, clinching the first seed. The Saints were forced to begin preparing for the wild-card Minnesota Vikings, and the Seahawks had to focus on a road trip against the Philadelphia Eagles.
After the game ended, Riveron claimed that he did briefly review the play, but didn’t see enough from the NBC broadcast angles to justify stopping the game for further review with instant-replay.
“Well, we actually looked at it here in New York. We had a great look. NBC gives us a great look of the entire route,” Riveron told Tim Booth of the Associated Press. “So, we actually did perform a review, but based on what we saw, we didn’t see enough to stop the game. But we did review it.”
In other words, Riveron didn’t commit his due diligence. He saw the broadcast angle and didn’t think it was worth his time to review one of the biggest plays in the final game of the decade, with serious playoff implications for multiple games. If things played out as he described it, that’s serious neglect of his job responsibilities.
And if anything, Riveron suggested the play may have qualified for a foul on the offense, because the tight end made first contact. He continued: “What we see is, we see the offensive player come in and initiate contact on the defensive player — nothing that rises to the level of a foul which significantly hinders the defender, nothing that is clear and obvious through visual evidence, which hinders the defender. The defender then braces himself.”
That’s a lot of conviction for Riveron to have in a play he spent a few seconds, maybe a full minute at most, considering. But he doubled down on it in Booth’s pool report, saying, “And there is contact then by the defender on the receiver. Again, nothing which rises to the level of a foul based on visual evidence. Nothing happens that rises to the level of a foul while the ball is in the air before it gets there by either player.”
Let’s be clear: the NFL has not gotten these calls and reviews right throughout the season. The problem isn’t that they got this one completely wrong, either (it’s part of it, but not the entire issue). What should concern fans of every team is that Riveron was in position to follow the rule book and do his job, and consciously chose not to, making a snap decision with less information than he could have. He might have changed his mind had he and his crew in New York reviewed the play from different angles, but Riveron decided it wasn’t worth his time.
After a season full of discourse surrounding pass interference review challenges and the influence referees have on games, Riveron took a hard left on the eve of the playoffs to make it all meaningless. What’s the point of having the ability to initiate booth review of a possible pass-interference foul in the game’s closing minutes if the man in charge thinks doing that is beneath him? Who’s to say it won’t happen again in the playoffs, costing a team their Super Bowl hopes? It’s just further proof that Riveron doesn’t deserve this post, and the NFL should take action as soon as possible to course-correct after Riveron messed things up so dangerously.
Booth ref: “He’s clearly got him grabbed…significantly hindering the receiver. This should be a booth review. I’m surprised they haven’t stopped the game.” 🤦♂️ pic.twitter.com/90HrDFuKb7
Late in the Seahawks-49ers game, Tony Corrente’s crew missed a blatant pass interference call on linebacker Fred Warner, It was a big deal.
SEATTLE, Wash. — With 15 seconds left in a game between the Seahawks and 49ers that would decide the NFC West and a great deal of the NFC playoff picture. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson threw a pass to tight end Jacob Hollister from the San Francisco six-yard line. Guarding Hollister was Fred Warner, who… well, let’s just say was very intent on making sure Hollister didn’t catch the ball.
Tony Corrente’s crew didn’t call Warner with pass interference, which took the Seahawks from third to fourth down. And on that game-deciding fourth down, Hollister took another pass right down to the goal line, but was down just before the ball broke the plane.
The 49ers won a thrilling game, 26-21, and we’ll never know what might have happened had Warner been called for pass interference as he should have been. As is, the 49ers now have the top seed in the NFC, while Seattle drops to the fifth seed.
“I’d have to look at the film, but it felt like he grabbed me,” Hollister said from the locker room after the game.
Quite a consequential mistake, and certainly not the first for an officiating crew in the 2019 NFL season.
Late in the Seahawks-49ers game, Tony Corrente’s crew missed a blatant pass interference call on linebacker Fred Warner, It was a big deal.
With 15 seconds left in a game between the Seahawks and 49ers that would decide the NFC West and a great deal of the NFC playoff picture. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson threw a pass to tight end Jacob Hollister from the San Francisco six-yard line. Guarding Hollister was Fred Warner, who… well, let’s just say was very intent on making sure Hollister didn’t catch the ball.
Tony Corrente’s crew didn’t call Warner with pass interference, which took the Seahawks from third to fourth down. And on that game-deciding fourth down, Hollister took another pass right down to the goal line, but was down just before the ball broke the plane.
The 49ers won a thrilling game, 26-21, and we’ll never know what might have happened had Warner been called for pass interference as he should have been. As is, the 49ers now have the top seed in the NFC, while Seattle drops to the fifth seed.
Quite a consequential mistake, and certainly not the first for an officiating crew in the 2019 NFL season.
The 49ers’ defense has struggled to get stops the last three weeks. They’re allowing 35.3 points per game over their last three. That’s not going to earn a victory over the Seahawks with the NFC West on the line. San Francisco’s defense has likely …
The 49ers’ defense has struggled to get stops the last three weeks. They’re allowing 35.3 points per game over their last three. That’s not going to earn a victory over the Seahawks with the NFC West on the line.
San Francisco’s defense has likely suffered too many injuries to reach the historically great form it found early in the year, but they’re still talented enough to string together stops against a banged up Seahawks offense.
These are the players on the 49ers defense that’ll have the biggest impact on Sunday’s game:
DE Nick Bosa
The 49ers’ stellar rookie has only one sack in his last four games. He’s still impacting opposing quarterbacks by collapsing the pocket and forcing throwaways, but he has to have his best game of the year Sunday. Seattle’s offensive line already struggles, and they’ll be without starting left tackle Duane Brown. Not only does Bosa have to stay disciplined getting after a mobile quarterback in Russell Wilson, but he has to be strong in the run game as well. Not collapsing early and surrendering the edge will be as vital as making sure Wilson doesn’t get comfortable. Bosa has played a ton of snaps this year, but a strong outing Sunday likely gets him and the 49ers week off heading into the postseason.