One of the top problems facing the Baltimore Ravens this offseason revolves around pending free agent outside linebacker Matthew Judon. As the top priority from Baltimore’s 21 pending free agents, the Ravens can’t allow Judon to walk away this offseason, no matter the cost.
But the reality is Judon isn’t going to be cheap. As we saw last offseason with C.J. Mosley, Za’Darius Smith and even Terrell Suggs, good defensive players tend to get paid big bucks if they’re allowed to hit free agency. In looking at what Judon will likely get offered this offseason, we settled on $17 million a year as a solid expectation. But it’s conceivable Judon earns even more if a team with a wealth of cap space to burn falls in love with him and starts a bidding war.
The Ravens’ best and most sure option would be to utilize the franchise tag — something Baltimore has rarely done in their 25-year history. According to Over The Cap, the franchise tag for outside linebackers is expected to cost $16.266 million for 2020. That’s a hefty cost for just one year but the Ravens might not have an option.
Behind Judon on the Ravens’ depth chart is . . . no one really. Tyus Bowser is the next guy up with Jaylon Ferguson likely starting on the opposite side and Aaron Adeoye giving the Ravens just three outside linebackers currently under contract. While there’s hope both Bowser and Ferguson will take another step forward next season, they combined for just 7.5 sacks and 19 quarterback hits in 2019 — 2 fewer sacks and 14 fewer quarterback hits than Judon alone.
Baltimore could turn their attention to free agency as well but either they’d be forced to pay a similarly huge amount for another pass rusher or they’d have to take a lesser player for a better bargain. Neither option is any better than simply locking up Judon — the player the Ravens already know well.
Signing Judon to a long-term deal would be Baltimore’s best bet. Baltimore would be able to play with the contract numbers and better pick where Judon’s largest cap hits will take place. Either they could take the brunt of the contract early or they could backload the deal.
But Judon would be wise to take a dip into the free-agent market to hopefully raise his pricetag dramatically in the event multiple teams try to outbid one another. For Baltimore, that certainly wouldn’t guarantee they’re able to keep Judon and it could end up costing them millions of dollars per year if they get into a bidding war because of it.
In comes the franchise tag. Though it would put the Ravens immediately on the hook for the full $16.266 million, cutting their 2020 salary cap space dramatically, it would guarantee Judon remains on their roster for at least 2020.
At that point, Baltimore would have a little more leverage to work out a long-term deal with Judon. Or, as we’ve seen become more common in recent years, the Ravens could trade Judon for more than the likely third-round compensatory pick they’d get from letting him walk in free agency.
But as with anything, it’s a gamble Baltimore is going to have to weigh carefully. They have other needs outside of just re-signing Judon and handing him the franchise tag would make signing other top free agents more difficult to pull off. There’s also no guarantee Judon would be willing to play under the franchise tag or sign a long-term deal with the Ravens at a value they’d find acceptable. Yet, Baltimore would still be on the hook for the cost of the franchise tag in those scenarios.
It’s a tough decision for general manager Eric DeCosta that will undoubtedly shape how the Ravens handle their entire offseason.
Should the #Ravens franchise tag OLB Matthew Judon?
— MatthewStevens (@MatthewS_NFL) January 24, 2020
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