Tag: FPI

Florida finishes regular season in Football Power Index rankings top 25

The win over FSU solidifies Florida’s spot among the top 25 teams in ESPN’s FPI rankings.

Florida football did what most people did not think they would do this fall — win seven games and clinch its first winning campaign since 2020.

It all came together in the final weeks of the season as the Gators beat a pair of top-25 teams in the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels at home, respectively, before beating the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee on Saturday, 31-11. Now, Billy Napier can look ahead to the program’s first bowl game in two years.

The Orange and Blue were strongly favored against the Garnet and Gold but it was not a pretty affair. FSU coughed up the ball eight times and despite a 14-0 halftime lead, UF struggled to put the game away early.

Nonetheless, Florida moved up in Week 14’s ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings update.

Florida football’s FPI ranking, rating

Following the win, the FPI lifted Florida three spots to No. 22 with the team’s overall rating rising from 11.6 last week to 11.8 this week. That puts the Gators between the No. 21 Tulane Green Wave and No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones.

Napier and Co. clinched the six-win mark last weekend and have won out the remainder of the schedule. Still, they hold a 0% chance of winning the conference, a 0% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0% chance of making the championship game and a 0% chance of winning the national title.

The FPI’s final record prediction was 6.8-5.2 last week, and Florida’s win confirmed that projection.

SEC teams in FPI

The Texas Longhorns finished the regular season in the top spot with a 26.5 overall rating — same as last week — followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide (4th, 23.9) and Georgia Bulldogs (5th, 21.6) among the top five schools.

The Tennessee Volunteers (20.7) moved up a spot to No. 7 while Ole Miss (20.5) fell two spots to No. 8 to wrap up the SEC teams in the top 10. Next up are the South Carolina Gamecocks (14th, 14.7), Texas A&M Aggies (16th, 14.3), LSU (17th, 13.5), Missouri Tigers (20th, 12.2) and Florida (22nd, 11.8) round out the top 25.

The remainder of the conference schools in the FPI are the Oklahoma Sooners (26th, 12.0), Auburn Tigers (29th, 9.6), Arkansas Razorbacks (36th, 8.1), Vanderbilt Commodores (39th, 6.5), Kentucky Wildcats (49th, 4.5) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (69th, 0.1).

Next up for Florida

That is the end of the regular-season schedule for the Orange and Blue. Now the Gator Nation waits with bated breath to hear which bowl game their beloved football team will play in this December. Stay tuned to this website for more information.

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Football Power Index prediction strongly favors Florida vs. FSU

ESPN’s FPI gives Florida over an 80% chance of prevailing over FSU in Tallahassee on Saturday.

The final game of the 2024 college football season is nearly here, which means the annual matchup between the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles is on deck. This year’s edition of the Sunshine State’s biggest rivalry brings with it an unexpected narrative.

The Orange and Blue have surged over the past couple of weeks, proving the naysayers wrong by reaching the six-win mark and locking into a postseason appearance. Billy Napier’s once-hot coach seat has now cooled to a temperate level since the program put its faith in the third-year skipper.

The Garnet and Gold are heading in the opposite direction having gone undefeated during the regular season last year and coming into this fall near the top of the rankings. It has been a brutal campaign for Mike Norvell to stomach, but that is life in the transfer portal era.

Football Power Index prediction

ESPN’s FPI, which predicts the outcome of each college football game every week, gives Florida an 82.7% chance of winning over FSU.

The Gators are ranked 25th in the FPI this week, with the team’s overall rating rising from 10.5 last week to 11.6 this week. That puts them between the No. 24 Colorado Buffaloes and No. 26 Iowa State Cyclones.

How to watch UF-FSU

The Gators and Seminoles face off inside Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30. The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN2.

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All 32 NFL teams (including the Broncos) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 13, the Broncos have a -1.1 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. 

Twelve games into the season, the Denver Broncos (7-5) have a -1.1 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.

The Cleveland Browns (3-8), who will visit Denver for a Monday Night Football showdown in Week 13, are ranked 21st with a -0.9 FPI rating.

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So with that background in mind, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI going into Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season.

  1. Detroit Lions (10-1): 9.0
  2. Baltimore Ravens (8-4): 6.6
  3. Buffalo Bills (9-2): 6.1
  4. Green Bay Packers (8-3): 5.7
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2): 4.8
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (910-1): 4.6
  7. San Francisco 49ers (5-6): 3.0
  8. Minnesota Vikings (9-2): 2.8
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6): 2.2
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3): 1.5
  11. Houston Texans (7-5): 1.2
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-5): 0.9
  13. Washington Commanders (7-5): 0.5
  14. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3): 1.1
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7): 0.4
  16. Miami Dolphins (5-6): 0.0
  17. Los Angeles Rams (5-6): -0.2
  18. New York Jets (3-8): -0.3
  19. Atlanta Falcons (6-5): -0.4
  20. New Orleans Saints (4-7): -0.6
  21. Cleveland Browns (3-8): -0.9
  22. Seattle Seahawks (6-5): -1.0
  23. Denver Broncos (7-5): -1.1
  24. Chicago Bears (4-7): -1.3
  25. Indianapolis Colts (5-7): -2.5
  26. Tennesee Titans (3-8): -4.9
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9): -5.0
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9): -5.9
  29. Carolina Panthers (3-8): -6.6
  30. New England Patriots (3-9): -7.7
  31. Dallas Cowboys (4-7): -8.2
  32. New York Giants (2-9): -8.5

The Broncos will aim to improve their rating when they take on the Browns in Week 13. Denver’s ranking is unchanged from last week.

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Florida inches into Football Power Index top 25 with Week 13 win

ESPN’s Football Power Index thinks the Florida Gators are a top-25 team after the Ole Miss win.

Florida football earned its sixth win of the 2024 campaign on Saturday against the visiting Ole Miss Rebels, who were ranked ninth in the country coming into the Week 13 affair. The 24-17 victory brought elation to the Gator Nation while turning the heads of much of the sports media.

Despite a hefty spread in favor of Lane Kiffin’s team this weekend, the game was essentially even through 45 minutes of play, with the Orange and Blue pointing the only points on the board in the fourth quarter — in the form of a touchdown — to seize the victory.

As a result of what is likely the biggest win of the Billy Napier era, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Florida a small but not insignificant boost in its rankings with just one game remaining in the regular season.

Florida football’s FPI ranking, rating

Following the win, the FPI lifted Florida one spot to No. 25 with the team’s overall rating rising from 10.5 last week to 11.6 this week. That puts the Gators between the No. 24 Colorado Buffaloes and No. 26 Iowa State Cyclones.

Napier and Co. have clinched the six-win mark this fall and now have an 82.4% chance of winning out — up from 18.6% — but still have a 0% chance of winning the conference, a 0% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0% chance of making the championship game and a 0% chance of winning the national title.

The FPI’s final record prediction rose from an even 6.0-6.0 to 6.8-5.2 with one game to go.

SEC teams in FPI

The Texas Longhorns remained in the top spot this week carrying a 26.5 overall rating, followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide (4th, 24.3) — who slipped down two spots — and Georgia Bulldogs (5th, 22.5) among the top five schools.

Ole Miss (22.4) managed to hang onto the sixth spot despite the loss and the Tennessee Volunteers (8th, 20.5) moved up a spot to wrap up the SEC teams in the top 10. The Texas A&M Aggies (15th, 14.4), South Carolina Gamecocks (16th, 14.3), LSU Tigers (19th, 12.8), Missouri Tigers (21st, 12.0), Oklahoma Sooners (23rd, 12.0) and Florida (25th, 11.6) round out the top 25.

The remainder of the conference schools in the FPI are the Auburn Tigers (29th, 9.7), Arkansas Razorbacks (32nd, 8.2), Vanderbilt Commodores (38th, 6.8), Kentucky Wildcats (42nd, 6.0) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (70th, -0.9).

Next up for Florida

The Gators wrap up the 2024 regular season schedule in Tallahassee for their annual rivalry game against the Florida State Seminoles. The game will take place inside Doak Campbell Stadium and will kick off at either 7 or 7:30 p.m. ET; broadcast details have yet to be determined.

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All 32 NFL teams (including the Broncos) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 12, the Broncos have a -1.2 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. 

Eleven games into the season, the Denver Broncos (6-5) have a -1.2 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-8), who will host Denver in Week 12, are ranked 26th with a -4.9 FPI rating.

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So with that background in mind, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI going into Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season.

  1. Detroit Lions (9-1): 8.7
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-4): 6.4
  3. Buffalo Bills (9-2): 6.2
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1): 5.1
  5. Green Bay Packers (7-3): 5.0
  6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2): 4.5
  7. San Francisco 49ers (5-5): 3.9
  8. Minnesota Vikings (8-2): 2.9
  9. Houston Texans (7-4): 1.9
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2): 1.8
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): 1.4
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-4): 1.4
  13. Washington Commanders (7-4): 1.3
  14. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3): 1.1
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7): 0.3
  16. Los Angeles Rams (5-5): -0.1
  17. New York Jets (3-8): -0.2
  18. Miami Dolphins (4-6): -0.3
  19. Atlanta Falcons (6-5): -0.7
  20. New Orleans Saints (4-7): -0.7
  21. Cleveland Browns (2-8): -1.1
  22. Seattle Seahawks (5-5): -1.1
  23. Denver Broncos (6-5): -1.2
  24. Chicago Bears (4-6): -1.4
  25. Indianapolis Colts (5-6): -2.1
  26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8): -4.9
  27. New England Patriots (3-8): -5.4
  28. Tennesee Titans (2-8): -5.6
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9): -5.9
  30. Carolina Panthers (3-7): -7.5
  31. New York Giants (2-8): -7.7
  32. Dallas Cowboys (3-7): -8.8

The Broncos will aim to improve their rating when they take on the Raiders in Week 12. Denver moved up two spots in the rankings this week.

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Win over LSU nudges Florida up Football Power Index rankings

A huge win over LSU puts Florida on the cusp of the Football Power Index rankings top 25.

Florida football scored a key win on Saturday against the LSU Tigers that may have just saved the 2024 season for the Gators. Fueled by the return of freshman quarterback [autotag]DJ Lagway[/autotag], the Orange and Blue secured a 27-16 victory in the Swamp that puts the program on track for a postseason appearance.

Billy Napier’s boys turned in a complete team effort that — while not perfectly executed — was enough to overcome their top-25 opponent in Week 12. The offense found a groove, the defense stood strong when it counted most and the special teams unit was once again special.

As a result of the massive intra-conference triumph, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Florida a small boost in its rankings as the college football regular season schedule nears a close.

Florida football’s FPI ranking, rating

Following the win, the FPI raised Florida two spots from No. 28 last week to No. 26, with the team’s overall rating rising from 9.3 to 10.5. That puts the Gators between the No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats and No. 27 Oklahoma Sooners.

Napier and Co. are now given a robust 85.1% chance of winning six games this fall — up from 43.6% — along with an 18.6% chance of winning out, as well as a 0% chance of winning the conference, a 0% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0% chance of making the championship game and a 0% chance of winning the national title.

The FPI’s final record prediction rose from 5.4-6.6 to an even 6.0-6.0, which projects a bowl berth for the Orange and Blue.

SEC teams in FPI

The Texas Longhorns ascended to the top spot this week carrying a 26.7 overall rating, followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide (2nd, 26.6) — who slipped from the No. 1 position — and Georgia Bulldogs (5th, 23.0) among the top five schools.

The Ole Miss Rebels (6th, 22.4) and Tennessee Volunteers (9th, 19.3) wrap up the SEC teams in the top 10, while the South Carolina Gamecocks (13th, 14.5), Texas A&M Aggies (14th, 14.4), LSU (19th, 13.1) and Missouri Tigers (24th, 11.0) round out the top 25.

The remainder of the conference schools in the FPI are Florida (26th, 10.5), Oklahoma (27th, 10.3), the Auburn Tigers (28th, 9.1), Arkansas Razorbacks (32nd, 8.3), Vanderbilt Commodores (38th, 6.6), Kentucky Wildcats (46th, 5.5) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (69th, 0.0).

Up next for the Gators

The Gators play their final home game of the season against the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

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All 32 NFL teams (including the Broncos) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 11, the Broncos have a -2.8 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 25th in the NFL. 

Ten games into the season, the Denver Broncos (5-5) have a -2.8 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 25th in the NFL.

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4), who will travel to Denver in Week 11, are ranked 14th with a 0.8 FPI rating.

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So with that background in mind, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI going into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.

  1. Detroit Lions (8-1): 7.5
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3): 7.0
  3. Buffalo Bills (8-2): 6.0
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): 5.4
  5. San Francisco 49ers (5-4): 4.4
  6. Green Bay Packers (6-3): 4.4
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): 4.2
  8. Minnesota Vikings (7-2): 2.3
  9. Washington Commanders (7-3): 2.0
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2): 1.9
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): 1.7
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-4): 1.5
  13. Houston Texans (6-4): 1.2
  14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4): 0.8
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): 0.7
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3): 0.7
  17. New York Jets (3-7): 0.2
  18. Cleveland Browns (2-7): -0.3
  19. Los Angeles Rams (4-5): -0.4
  20. Miami Dolphins (3-6): -0.7
  21. New Orleans Saints (3-7): -1.3
  22. Seattle Seahawks (4-5): -1.4
  23. Chicago Bears (4-5): -1.4
  24. Indianapolis Colts (4-6): -1.6
  25. Denver Broncos (5-5): -2.8
  26. New York Giants (2-8): -4.6
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7): -4.8
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8): -5.1
  29. Tennesee Titans (2-7): -5.2
  30. New England Patriots (3-7): -6.5
  31. Carolina Panthers (3-7): -7.4
  32. Dallas Cowboys (3-6): -8.0

The Broncos will aim to improve their rating when they take on the Falcons in Week 11. Denver has moved up two spots since last week.

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All 32 NFL teams (including the Cowboys) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 11, the Cowboys have a -8.0 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks at the bottom of the NFL.

The 2024 NFL season has now surpassed it’s halfway point, as Week 10 nears it’s conclusion. Nine games into the year, the Dallas Cowboys (3-6) have a -8.0 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks dead last, 32nd, in the league. Just a few weeks ago they were rated -1.0 and ranked 23rd, but four losses in a row and several in embarrassing fashion will plummet a franchise.

The Houston Texans (6-4), who will travel to Dallas on Sunday, are ranked 13th with a 1.2 FPI rating.

FPI is “a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections,” according to ESPN.com. FPI “represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Here’s a look at the ratings heading into the weekend action.

  1. Detroit Lions (8-1): 7.5
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3): 7.0
  3. Buffalo Bills (8-2): 6.0
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): 5.4
  5. San Francisco 49ers (5-4): 4.4
  6. Green Bay Packers (6-3): 4.4
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): 4.2
  8. Minnesota Vikings (7-2): 2.3
  9. Washington Commanders (7-3): 2.0
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2): 1.9
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): 1.7
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-4): 1.5
  13. Houston Texans (6-4): 1.2
  14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4): 0.8
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): 0.7
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3): 0.7
  17. New York Jets (3-7): 0.2
  18. Cleveland Browns (2-7): -0.3
  19. Los Angeles Rams (4-5): -0.4
  20. Miami Dolphins (3-6): -0.7
  21. New Orleans Saints (3-7): -1.3
  22. Seattle Seahawks (4-5): -1.4
  23. Chicago Bears (4-5): -1.4
  24. Indianapolis Colts (4-6): -1.6
  25. Denver Broncos (5-5): -2.8
  26. New York Giants (2-8): -4.6
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7): -4.8
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8): -5.1
  29. Tennesee Titans (2-7): -5.2
  30. New England Patriots (3-7): -6.5
  31. Carolina Panthers (3-7): -7.4
  32. Dallas Cowboys (3-6): -8.0

The records say there’s a reasonable gap between the Cowboys and Falcons. FPI says otherwise.

All 32 NFL teams (including the Broncos) ranked by FPI ratings

Going into Week 10, the Broncos have a -3.4 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 27th in the NFL. 

Nine games into the season, the Denver Broncos (5-4) have a -3.4 Football Power Index (FPI) rating from ESPN, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-0), who will host Denver in Week 10, are ranked third with a 6.0 FPI rating.

FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So with that background in mind, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI going into Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season.

  1. Detroit Lions (7-1): 7.8
  2. Baltimore Ravens (6-3): 7.2
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0): 6.0
  4. Buffalo Bills (7-2): 6.0
  5. Green Bay Packers (6-3): 4.3
  6. San Francisco 49ers (4-4): 3.9
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2): 3.7
  8. Minnesota Vikings (6-2): 2.5
  9. Washington Commanders (7-2): 2.3
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): 1.8
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5): 1.7
  12. Houston Texans (6-3): 1.2
  13. New York Jets (3-6): 1.1
  14. Atlanta Falcons (6-3): 0.7
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-5): 0.4
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3): 0.2
  17. Arizona Cardinals (5-4): 0.1
  18. Los Angeles Rams (4-4): -0.0
  19. Chicago Bears (4-4): -0.1
  20. Cleveland Browns (2-7): -0.3
  21. Indianapolis Colts (4-5): -1.0
  22. Miami Dolphins (2-6): -1.0
  23. Dallas Cowboys (3-5): -1.0
  24. New Orleans Saints (2-7): -1.1
  25. Seattle Seahawks (4-5): -1.6
  26. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7): -2.0
  27. Denver Broncos (5-4): -3.4
  28. New York Giants (2-7): -4.3
  29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7): -4.9
  30. Tennesee Titans (2-6): -5.2
  31. Carolina Panthers (2-7): -7.8
  32. New England Patriots (2-7): -8.1

The Broncos will aim to improve their rating when they take on the Chiefs in Week 10. Denver’s ranking is unchanged from last week.

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ESPN FPI updates Penn State’s College Football Playoff chances after first loss

What are Penn State’s chances of playing in the College Football Playoff after losing to the Buckeyes?

In previous years, one loss might have been enough to knock Penn State out of the College Football Playoff picture. This year that is no longer the case. The College Football Playoff has expanded this season from four teams to 12, giving Penn State and every other team around the country a little more margin for error. But Penn State taking its first loss of the season this weekend against Ohio State has put the Nittany Lions in a spot it did not want to be in with just four games remaining.

The good news is Penn State still sits in a favorable spot to make it into the 12-team College Football Playoff after losing to Ohio State this weekend. ESPN’s updated Football Power Index numbers on Sunday still give Penn State a 73.7% chance to be among the playoff participants. Going squarely off of the FPI playoff percentages, Penn State has the eighth-best odds to be in the College Football Playoff and is one of nine schools with at least a 70% chance.

Even if you account for the auto-bids for the five highest-ranked champions, Penn State would still be sitting in a playoff spot based on the playoff percentages and would be the no. 9 seed if seeded by playoff odds according to the FPI numbers. That would put Penn State on the road in the first round against Tennessee if seeding was sorted using the same numbers.

As long as Penn State can find a way to shake this loss to the Buckeyes and go on to take care of the rest of the regular season schedule, Penn State should be preparing for a playoff matchup in December, whether home or away. ESPN’s updated numbers do give Penn State favorable winning percentages the rest of the way this regular season, so a final record of 11-1 is entirely in play even if it comes without a shot at the Big Ten championship.

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