Tag: fourth down

Broncos coach Sean Payton explains 4th down decision vs. Chargers

Facing 4th-and-6 right near midfield down by 3 points with 4:35 remaining in the game, Broncos coach Sean Payton opted to punt.

Trailing the Los Angeles Chargers by a field goal during Thursday night’s AFC West showdown at SoFi Stadium, Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton put the game in the hands of his defense instead of trusting his offense.

With 4:35 remaining in the game and all three timeouts in his pocket, Payton faced 4th-and-6 at his own 49-yard line. Instead of going for it just short of midfield, Payton opted to punt. The Chargers went on to score a touchdown, essentially putting the game out of reach.

Payton was asked about his decision to not go for it after an eventual 34-27 loss.

“Yeah but the timeouts, all the percentages, field position,” Payton pushed back. “We just couldn’t get them to stop.”

Payton’s offense lost the punch it had in the first half of Thursday’s game, in part because they stopped running the ball, at least effectively.

With 41 seconds until halftime while up by 11 points, Payton called two passing plays and the Broncos were forced to punt. After a silly penalty on the punt, the Chargers were gifted a fair catch free kick to cut the deficit to eight points.

After the game, quarterback Bo Nix defended Payton’s decision.

“Well, we had about 45 seconds and two timeouts and I think every offense in the league is trying to go score,” the rookie said.

Payton and the Broncos can’t change the past. What’s done is done. Now they’ll turn their attention to a Saturday afternoon game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17.

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Where Commanders coach Dan Quinn was right and wrong in Week 12 vs. Cowboys

Examining two Dan Quinn decisions from Week 12.

Every week, one decision can dramatically determine the outcome of a game. That’s true at every level of football, specifically the NFL. Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn faced two critical decisions in Sunday’s 34-26 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

We examine where Quinn went right — and wrong.

Before we discuss the game’s ending, let’s examine a decision we think Quinn may want back.

The Commanders led 3-0, Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey just missed his second field goal attempt, giving Washington excellent field position. The Commanders ran six plays, getting two first downs, before coming up short at the Dallas 32-yard line. Instead of going for it on fourth-and-2, Quinn chose to kick the field.

It was a 51-yard field goal for kicker Austin Seibert. It was his first game back after missing the previous two games with a hip injury. Seibert badly missed the kick, giving the Cowboys the ball back. At this point, the Commanders held a 3-0 lead.

Why wasn’t Quinn more aggressive here? He just needed two yards, and quarterback Jayden Daniels looked explosive again for the first time in weeks. Just weeks earlier, there was no way Quinn would have kicked, regardless of how much he believed in Seibert. Remember, Washington began the season going 11 for 11 on fourth-down conversions. Part of the success was due to Daniels’ dual-threat ability.

Quinn made a similar decision against the Eagles the week before, only that time, he passed up a 44-yard field goal, which would have given his team a 15-10 lead in the fourth quarter. It’s even more interesting that Quinn went for it against an excellent Philadelphia defense but chose to kick against a struggling Dallas unit.

“We just talked about our line to kick and Austin had a good week at it, went to go,” Quinn said after the game. “So, once it’s at the space, that’s the line to get to and we didn’t feel like we had to overtry or go further for it. It had nothing to do with anything other than, ‘Hey, we’re at the spot, let’s go get some points and move it from there.'”

Quinn’s other decision could have gone either way, but as the home team and the favorite, we side with the head coach.

The play in question was Daniels’ 86-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin with 21 seconds remaining to make it a 27-26 team. It was an improbable play.

Quinn quickly signaled for his team to kick the extra point. As improbable as the touchdown was, Seibert missed the point after, essentially ending the game. Everyone was dejected.

Here’s some context: It was Seibert’s second missed PAT of the game, and he also missed the aforementioned field goal. Before missing both extra points, Seibert had been perfect all season.

You can’t blame Quinn here. The struggling Cowboys played a strong game defensively on Sunday, but after Washington just shocked them, Quinn had to like his chances heading into overtime. The Commanders’ offense had come alive, and Dallas was reeling.

The decision could have been different if Washington was on the road as an underdog.

You could make the point that it would have been the perfect time to go for the two-point conversion and win for the same reasons we mentioned above. That would have been an understandable decision, too.

However, we believe Quinn made the sensible call here, and most NFL coaches would have done the same thing if all the factors were considered.

“No. I thought if after we score, we’d go for one,” Quinn said. “And the reason behind that, I thought, ‘Let’s get back into it, but we don’t have to decide it on this play’. And so that was where I thought, ‘Let’s go’ and then, hey get one stop, we’ll get it, and then at the coin toss, let’s go through the whole process again and reset it.’ So, I thought in that way that was the right call on that as obviously, you’re not factoring in the other part of things. But that was my thought going into it.”

On Tuesday, Washington placed Seibert on injured reserve. Regardless of what he said, Seibert wasn’t completely healthy when he played Sunday. 

You can’t fault Quinn for Seibert’s health. If the kicker said he was fine, and trainers cleared him, he is considered ready to go.

However, we believe Quinn may want that first call back if he had the chance.

The Commanders performed terribly. Not only did they allow two kickoff returns for touchdowns—one after the game was decided—but they also had a critical turnover that led to a touchdown, dropped passes, struggled in pass protection, and blew a coverage at the end of the first half that directly led to three points.

Washington and Quinn hope to put Week 12 behind them on Sunday when the Tennessee Titans come to town.

Aggression will be a part of the Saints’ culture under Darren Rizzi

Darren Rizzi expressed belief in being aggressive prior to last week, and showed he practices what he preaches. Don’t expect that to change:

For the rest of the year, you can expect the New Orleans Saints to be aggressive with their decision making.

After losing the last seven games under Dennis Allen, Darren’s Rizzi won his first game against the Atlanta Falcons. When you change head coaches in the middle of the year, sometimes you get an interim coach bump. Was that all it was? The Saints will have to prove that through the rest of the season.

Beyond rejuvenated energy, the Saints displayed an aggressiveness that will continue. When he was first announced as the interim head coach, Rizzi criticized Allen’s decision to not go for it on a fourth down versus the Carolina Panthers. That told us all we needed to know.

The Saints went for it on 4th-and-2 on the first drive. This was a predetermined decision coming into the game by Rizzi. He’s practicing what he preaches and is aiming to be aggressive.

He may not go for every fourth down, but his message to Klint Kubiak and Joe Woods was “we’re going to be aggressive play callers.” You saw that on the fourth down throw to Alvin Kamara.

The two most apparent aggressive decisions didn’t work, but Rizzi still strongly supports the decision. This is who he will be and, therefore who the Saints will be for the remainder of the season.

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Darren Rizzi already expresses one thing he’d do differently than Dennis Allen

Darren Rizzi is taking over for Dennis Allen as interim head coach. He highlighted one decision he would have made differently than his predecessor:

Darren Rizzi will make his head coaching debut this upcoming week against the Atlanta Falcons, but if his debut was against the Carolina Panthers, he would have done at least one thing differently.

The New Orleans Saints were faced with a fourth and one in the fourth quarter at their own 46. Dennis Allen tried to draw the Panthers offsides. When it didn’t work, the Saints took the delay of game to give Matthew Hayball more space for the kick.

Rizzi may be a special teams guy, but he would have kept Derek Carr and the offense out to go for it. Not only does Rizzi disagree with Allen’s choice, he believes it is the objectively wrong call.

“I think the draw offsides play was a bad call,” Rizzi said on WWL Radio Monday night. He explained his thought process through analytics. “I think analytics tell you to go for it there.”

In addition to analytics, the flow of the game suggested to go for it as well. You’re up five points with a little more than five minutes left near midfield. You just followed up your second touchdown drive with an amazing interception. This felt like a chance to put the Panthers away.

From this quote, the change at head coach could lead to a more aggressive attitude and possibly more of a reliance on analytics.

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Another crucial call by Antonio Pierce snuffs out Raiders glimmer of hope vs Rams

Even with all of the Raiders’ mistakes, they still had a shot late against the Rams. But another poor decision by Antonio Pierce killed it.

Four yards. That’s how far away the Raiders were from having a shot at tying up their game against the Rams Sunday. That in and of itself is pretty shocking considering how many mistakes and miscues the Raiders had in the game.

They turned the ball over three times in the game and each of those turnovers led to touchdowns. Meanwhile they hadn’t gotten in the end zone all day themselves.

But despite it all, they had a legitimate shot to clean the slate. They were down 20-12 which means a touchdown and a two-point conversion and they tie it up. And when the chips were down, Antonio Pierce made the wrong call, pulling the rug out from underneath them.

Three straight passes from the four probably wasn’t the wisest decision for starters. Mainly because it was the run game that was actually doing the best work for the Raiders in the game.

Two of those passes fell incomplete and the third was stopped for no gain to bring up fourth and goal at the four. And, as it should be, the Raiders went for it.

But then DJ Glaze was flagged for a false start. And suddenly Pierce had second thoughts. For some reason, scoring from nine yards versus four yards changed everything. He. then opted to have Daniel Carlson come out and kick his fifth field goal of the day.

“We had three timeouts,” said Pierce when explaining his decision. “So we figured we’d get the ball back for those guys with a minute forty or whatever it was on the clock and give our offense a chance again in the two-minute drill with no timeouts. That was the thought process.”

Having all your timeouts isn’t nearly a good enough reason to make that decision. Even if you fail, you still have your timeouts. And even with the field goal, you still need a touchdown.

When you think about it is the worst of all possible scenarios. Even worse than going for it and failing. It was simply the wrong call by Pierce. And it killed their best chance late in this game.

Best case scenario is you go for it, make it, convert the two points and tie it up. Then you’re just a defensive stop away from a chance to win it or head to overtime.

Next best case is going for it, making the touchdown, failing on the two-point conversion, getting a defensive stop, and then needing only to drive for a field goal to win it.

Next best is going for it, failing, turning it over on downs near the goal line, getting a stop, and then another chance to tie it up with decent field position.

Worst case is settling for a field goal, setting them up at their own 30 off the kickoff, getting a defensive stop, and starting your drive deep in your own territory off the punt with just over a minute with no timeouts left. That’s just what happened.

The result was the Raiders were forced to be one dimensional — the dimension that they had struggled with all day with a leaky offensive line and practice squad receivers — and the Rams easily knocked down the first two passes and picked off the third to end the game.

Let’s be clear here. This Raiders team had no business being still in this game late. They did everything in their power to be blown out. But the reality is, they were in that position. And that call on fourth down squandered their one shot to pull out an unlikely win. That falls no Pierce.

Two weeks ago in Denver, he called for a punt on fourth and two at the Denver 42. In the opener — also in LA — he went for it on fourth down at his own 41 early in the game and then late in the game, down a score, a punted on fourth and one from the Chargers’ 41. Make sense out of that. Make sense out of any of his 4th down decisions. I dare you.

And all this is to say nothing of the utter lack of discipline on this team that has had them in a steady, slow motion implosion the past three weeks. It’s one thing to shoot yourself in the foot. It’s another to have the wind taken out of your sails from a lack of aggressiveness in those times when aggressiveness is called for.

Dennis Allen explains his decisions on critical fourth downs vs. Eagles

Dennis Allen shared his thought process on three critical fourth downs against the Eagles. Whether to punt, attempt a long field goal, or go for it:

The New Orleans Saints only attempted one fourth down conversion on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. It was an Alvin Kamara run that was stopped short of the line of scrimmage. The other two situations Dennis Allen referenced were punts, and he doesn’t regret any of the three decisions.

What about the other two decisions? Those would have asked Blake Grupe to attempt a career-long field goal. Allen chose to not take the gamble of the Eagles receiving good field position due to a miss.

The first attempt would have been a 58-yard field goal, as the Saints were faced with a 4th-and-8. Allen said he “doesn’t know if that’s the down and distance to we’re looking for to potentially go for it.”

That left punting or kicking the field goal as the only viable options. Allen went with the former because of the flow of the game suggested pinning the Eagles in their own territory was the best bet.

On the next drive, Grupe would have been tasked with a 60-yard field goal  try, which Allen said “You certainly aren’t trying to kick.” He just didn’t see the success as consistent enough to risk giving the Eagles great field position. New Orleans considered going for it because they were only 4 yards from the first down. Ultimately, they chose to punt that one as well.

Allen kept it simple on the decision to go for it on 4th-and-1. He called it a “no brainer.”

Allen sees the two punts as plays that worked out for the team and the attempt as a play he’d do every time. It doesn’t seem like he’d change how he handled the situation, but you have to wonder whether Grupe banging his  first field goal in off the uprights played a part in how he approached this phase of the game on Sunday.

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WATCH: Derek Carr hits rookie Bub Means to convert big 4th down vs. 49ers

Derek Carr hit rookie wideout Bub Means to convert a big fourth down against the 49ers. It’s a big step in the right direction for a team that needed it:

The New Orleans Saints’ first-team offense finally found some life after a couple of underwhelming drives to start their second preseason game. On 4th-and-5 from the San Francisco 49eres’ 38-yard line, the team dialed up a spot concept to find rookie wideout Bub Means for a big conversion. This conversion led to a 1-yard touchdown run by Taysom Hill to cap off a 16-play drive, putting them up by 7 points  at Levi’s Stadium.

This was a great sign for the team finally seeing Means in action after he missed time in training camp with an injury. The Saints are in need of more playmakers at the wide receiver position and it would be beneficial for the team if Means was part of the solution there. Carr having the trust to hit Means on this play goes a long way as well. It’s an encouraging moment for the exciting rookie from Pitt.

Capitalizing on later downs is something that the team has struggled with as of late. If they can sustain drives and find success on crucial downs, it will go a long way to making Klint Kubiak’s offense go this season. It is also a positive that they were able to get this done against one of the best defensive schemes in football. This was a big step in the right direction for a team that needed to see it.

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Dennis Allen explains questionable 4th down decisions vs. Rams

New Orleans went for 0-3 on 4th down against the Rams. Dennis Allen says the aggression was the plan against a high-powered offense:

The New Orleans Saints went for it on fourth down three times against the Los Angeles Rams, twice in the first half. But they failed to convert on any of their three attempts, and the first-half tries are what’s being criticized by fans and analysts alike. It showcased an aggressive nature that has been rare over the last two years. Saints head coach Dennis Allen explained the decision was spurred by the need to score touchdowns, not field goals against the Rams offense.

This was a pregame attitude and was likely further cemented by Los Angeles driving 95 yards for a touchdown on their opening drive. New Orleans went for it on 4th-and-5 on the ensuing possession, but protection broke down and Derek Carr was sacked before he could throw the ball away. The Saints went for it on another 4th-and-5 in Rams territory right before halftime but Carr was pressured again and threw a bad ball too far in front of Juwan Johnson for the tight end to try and secure it. The second attempt in particular stood out. The offense wasn’t rolling at the time which made the decision a bit questionable. Punting may have set the Rams offense up further inside their own territory, but Los Angeles still had all three of their timeouts and they already marched downfield once earlier. Maybe they would have played that situation more conservatively if they’d had to cover 80 or 90 yards instead of 60.

New Orleans needed this victory and approaching it aggressively was logical. Allen also mentioned wanting to avoid being reckless. Granted, no one is talking about this strategy if it works. Calculated aggression is appreciated.  However, the decision right before halftime felt like a miscalculation even at the moment. If Allen wants to get more aggressive, he needs to put more thought into when and where to do it.

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Dennis Allen addresses questionable fourth-down decisions vs. Bears

Dennis Allen addressed some questionable fourth-down decisions from Sunday’s game with the Bears:

There haven’t been a shortage of criticisms for New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen during his stewardship of the team, but one recurring issue has been his decision-making on fourth down. Allen was lambasted for punting deep inside Chicago Bears territory on Sunday, but he also caught flak for going for a conversion instead of what was perceived to be an easy field goal kick.

But it’s tough to see any field goal try as a sure thing when rookie kicker Blake Grupe ranks third in missed kicks (5) through Week 9, from distances of 52, 51, 47, 46, and 29 yards. He isn’t someone the Saints can rely on right now, though Allen gave him a shot at a 55-yard field goal early in the third quarter (with 11:43 remaining). And to his credit, Grupe connected on his new career-long field goal to give the Saints the lead at 17-14.

Later, though, stuck at the Chicago 39-yard line on 4th-and-5 late in the third quarter (with 1:12 remaining), Allen elected to punt instead of trying a 56-yard field goal or a conversion attempt. The Bears took over at their own 9-yard line with the game tied at 17-17. Allen shared his thought process on that decision after the game.

“All those options go through your mind,” Allen said, “But I felt like trying to pin him down. Obviously, that’s a long field goal and the percentages of making those aren’t necessarily great and so, the thought process was, let’s pin them down there in that situation and see if we can create some field position, get the ball back in good field position for the offense.”

When Grupe’s earlier successful field goal try was brought up, Allen responded, “Every minute of the game changes the thought process in terms of what you’re thinking, in terms of your aggressiveness, whether you’re going to go for it, kick the field goal, or try to plot them and pin them deep. Those are your three options and we chose to try to pin him down there.”

Fans have turned on Grupe, but for good reason: Allen had seen him push kicks wide of the uprights from lesser distances before. Outside a long catch-and-go pickup by Kendre Miller, the offense hadn’t shown anything on that drive. With the fourth quarter ahead punting felt like his best path forward. Fortunately the defense forced a quick three-and-out and Rashid Shaheed returned the punt back inside Bears territory.

That brings us to the next fourth down decision in Chicago territory. Facing 4th-and-1 from the Bears’ 17-yard line and protecting a 24-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter (with 7:52 remaining), Allen gave the offense the green light to go for a conversion rather than try a 34-yard field goal to go up two scores. But their execution was off. Derek Carr didn’t reach the line of scrimmage on the quarterback sneak and the offense turned the ball over on downs. It may have been a good opportunity to send Taysom Hill into the game given his greater success as a runner. Grupe has missed shorter kicks before, and at the end of the day the offense should expect to get a yard when they need it.

Still, Allen called Grupe’s number later in the game. He chose to try a field goal from the Chicago 29-yard line on 4th-and-3, still up 24-17 late in the fourth quarter (with 2:30 remaining). But the rookie kicker didn’t reward that confidence by banging a 47 yarder off the left upright. Once again the Saints defense took the field, and once again they came away with a clutch turnover — this time with Demario Davis punching the ball from Tyson Bagent’s grasp where Pete Werner recovered it.

So what can we take away from all of this? Allen isn’t aggressive on fourth down, which we already knew, but the offense isn’t executing its plays well when given an opportunity to go for a gutsy conversion. The field goal unit isn’t reliable enough to settle for easy points, and Grupe isn’t performing well enough to inspire much confidence. This Saints team might have won back-to-back games but they’re still flawed. The good news is that a 5-4 record with the bye week in sight makes it much easier to iron out those wrinkles. For now, time is on their side.

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Football Outsiders says Dennis Allen was one of the least-aggressive coaches in 2022

Football Outsiders research says Dennis Allen was one of the least-aggressive head coaches in 2022. The Saints must improve in this area to survive in 2023:

There’s one easy area to point to as a criticism of Dennis Allen’s first year as New Orleans Saints head coach: a lack of aggression on fourth downs. No offense attempted fewer fourth-down conversions than Allen’s offense last year (11). Whether he trusted his defense too much or didn’t trust his quarterbacks enough, Allen chose to kick the ball away whenever given the opportunity.

But this lack of aggression went under the microscope in an article from Football Outsiders analyst Aaron Schatz, who used FO’s Aggressiveness Index to rank every decision-maker from around the NFL. This tool has been in use since 2006, which Schatz describes as: “The goal was to find a way to rank coaches based on their tendencies on fourth downs in a manner that was easy to understand but accounted for the different rates at which the average coach will choose to ‘go for it’ in different situations.”

And Allen ranked 30th out of last year’s 32 head coaches. Only New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick and New York Jets coach Robert Saleh were less aggressive. Belichick has reversed his tendencies on fourth downs from earlier in his career, when the league was more conservative on average — and no one seems to quite understand what prompted that decision. Saleh was dealing with an even more fraught quarterback situation than the Saints last season, so it makes sense that he didn’t roll the dice in high-leverage situations.

Still, that’s not where you want to see the Saints ranking. Allen had the benefits of a veteran quarterback under center in Andy Dalton and some talented weapons like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson at his disposal. Pete Carmichael deserves some blame too for taking Taysom Hill out of the playbook. Hill only had two rushing attempts on fourth down all season while remaining highly effective in short-yardage situations. He averaged 7.9 yards per carry when the offense needed 3 yards or fewer, converting 17 first downs on 26 attempts (65.4%).

Hopefully the Saints can improve in this area. Maybe it means more carries for Hill on fourth down, but that alone isn’t going to fix the problem. Allen needs to act more aggressively and give his team more opportunities to win a game with the ball in their hands than with their backs against the wall.

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